King: Consider Skyler's Scramjet in Carter, Midnight Crossing in Royal Heroine

Bettors, whether gambling on human athletes or on horses, can often reap greater rewards when they don’t consider – or even bet against – star power. Consider, for example, that the no-name Toronto Raptors have a winning record against the spread over the long NBA season, while Cleveland and Golden State, captained by superstars LeBron James and Steph Curry, do not.

Obviously, it would be illogical to think that these stars negatively impacted their teams. So, my point is that their popularity can skew expectations beyond what is reasonable, while those teams out of the public eye are less fancied by bettors.

Applying these beliefs to horse racing, I’m eager to support a couple of quality horses who don’t have star power generating unreasonable expectations on Saturday: Skyler’s Scramjet in the Carter Handicap at Aqueduct and Midnight Crossing in the Royal Heroine at Santa Anita.

In the case of Skyler’s Scramjet, this sprinter is 5 for 10 over his career and 5 for 6 for current trainer Michelle Nevin. And yet few will be betting this horse specifically because of who is training him – unlike, say, 5-2 favorite Army Mule, trained by Todd Pletcher.

Naturally, wagering bias isn’t limited to trainers. Bettors tend to be drawn even more to big-name jockeys, and I suspect the presence of Hall of Famer John Velazquez on Awesome Slew in the Carter will send horseplayers toward his mount.

Army Mule and Awesome Slew are still contenders in the Carter, and a victory from either would not be a surprise. What would be a surprise, however, is if they returned a greater payoff than they should.

Skyler’s Scramjet, on the other hand, might be a mild overlay in light of his accomplishments. Although listed as the 3-1 second favorite on the morning line behind Army Mule, I anticipate him drifting up and starting as the third choice in the betting.

And while 7-2 or 4-1 may not seem like a huge number, I believe that would be fair on a horse riding a three-race win streak and coming off a graded victory over the Aqueduct strip that netted him a 103 Beyer Speed Figure, narrowly the highest last-race speed figure in this race.

Also, considering that he is returning to his home track, I view him as more likely to repeat his last race than Army Mule, an inexperienced shipper from Florida, and Awesome Slew, who hasn’t started since a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile on Nov. 3.

Also encouraging is his draw in post 9, where he is the outside speed, positioned just outside of speedball and chronic fader Green Gratto. And for a horse who can be a bit headstrong and has shown hesitancy when positioned inside, this draw is even more advantageous.

As for Midnight Crossing in the Royal Heroine, it is her jockey, Brice Blanc, who likely will boost her price. Since he rides infrequently and therefore doesn’t rack up many victories, he is probably the least recognizable jockey of those with mounts.

But his limited opportunities and meet record – 7 for 58 at Santa Anita heading into Thursday – seem less important to me than his record when teaming up with trainer Richard Baltas, for whom he has ridden 5 winners from 16 mounts at the current stand.

One of those winners was Midnight Crossing in a front-running 22-1 upset in the Robert Frankel Stakes over the grass Dec. 30. And, most recently, he rode her to a runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Santa Ana at 11-1.

She likely will have to stalk the pace to win Saturday in a speed-laden field, though I’m hopeful she can do that effectively. She rated to take an allowance at Woodbine last year, and many European runners like her actually prefer racing with cover and when provided with a target.

That one win at Woodbine notwithstanding, her Canadian past-performance lines cloud her race record, which has contributed to her recent long odds. But I hold the opinion that her ordinary form there over the summer and fall matters little now that she has joined Baltas, who has a history of improving turf fillies who join his stable.

Midnight Crossing seems like a worthwhile value play at her morning-line price of 6-1.