King: Churchill pick four for Saturday, May 2

Hitting any pick four requires some degree of good fortune, and when that race includes a 19-horse Kentucky Derby, you need a little extra luck. Knowing how difficult it is, let’s still swing away, knowing the mutuel upside, starting with the Distaff Turf Mile.

Race 8

Let’s go three deep in the first leg: COFFEE CLIQUE (5), the winner of the Grade 1 Just a Game on Belmont Day last year, returned with a useful third in the Grade 2 Honey Fox in her first start of 2015; likely to move forward off that race; slight edge in a field in which many have legitimate shots. LADY LARA (4) rallied to take the Honey Fox after a promising 3-year-old year in which she won stakes in Britain and the U.S.; second to Sparkling Review in the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere over this course last fall. SANDIVA (8) won a pair of stakes before just getting caught by LADY LARA when beaten a neck in the Honey Fox after surging to the lead in midstretch.

Race 9

Though BAYERN (2) is favored here, this race looks competitive. Again, let’s use three. PRIVATE ZONE (5) is one of the top sprinters in the country from six furlongs to a mile; blessed with speed and class and favorably drawn outside fellow speed horse and classic winner BAYERN. PANTS ON FIRE (4) figures to sit a dream trip stalking the pace and is a nice horse in his own right; capable of running Beyers in the 101-107 range. BAYERN won more than $4 million last year, finishing 2014 as one of the best horses in the country; coming off a layoff dating to the Nov. 1 Breeders' Cup and facing speed to his outside, this is a tall order.

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Race 10

Let’s go deep in this race, taking four horses. UMGIYO (3) ran a series of good races on grass in Dubai this winter before being outrun when seventh in the $6 million, Group 1 Dubai Turf on World Cup Day; might slip through the wagering cracks. SEEK AGAIN (9) ran second off the bench in this race last year, losing by a head to two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan; later won the Fourstardave in the summer before tailing off over the second half of 2014; dangerous if back on his game for his return. STEPHANIE'S KITTEN (8) is probably the best older turf mare in training but will be overbet against males; worth using as insurance, along with JACK MILTON (7).

Race 11

Back to three horses we go in the Derby, the final leg. MATERIALITY (3), unbeaten in three starts, ranks among the most talented runners in this year's Kentucky Derby, along with DORTMUND (8) and AMERICAN PHAROAH (18). Of the three, he is easily the best price at 12-1 on the morning line. In winning the Florida Derby in his last start, he ran a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest in the Derby field, and defeated a fellow Kentucky Derby contender in Upstart. They battled from the end of the backstretch and into the lane before Materiality pulled away for a 1 1/2-length victory. DORTMUND and AMERICAN PHAROAH are outstanding racehorses and incredible physical specimens. The former is so large that he makes his 3-year-old rivals look like young 2-year-olds, and the latter has a fluid stride with no wasted movement. No wonder Dortmund is unbeaten in six starts, including the Santa Anita Derby, and American Pharoah is the juvenile male champion of 2014 and dominant in two preps this year.

The tickets

A 50-cent pick four of 4,5,8 with 2,4,5 with 3,7,8,9 with 3,8,18 costs $54.