King: Cardinal favorites key in Churchill pick four

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – If win wagering were the only way to bet Saturday’s Grade 3 Cardinal at Churchill Downs, I’d pass on the race. The reason is because the horses I like – I’m Already Sexy and Royal Fury – are the morning-line favorites, and unless they drift up from their prices of 3-1 and 5-1, respectively, neither looks like an overlay.

They’re legitimate contenders. But the problem is they face 12 other rivals, and in a field that deep on turf, traffic problems and other unpredictable elements of chance can influence the outcome.

So my strategy to play the Cardinal is to bet it as part of the late pick four, using my top two choices as A plays – while also taking some shots with longer-priced B runners, under the format horseplayers can use with Daily Racing Form ’s TicketMaker program.

We’ll get to a full analysis of the Cardinal later in this column, but for the sake of compiling the wager, let’s tackle the pick four in race order, starting with the eighth.

Race 8

Ulanbator (#10) and Tout (#11) are both A’s, or high-percentage winners, in the first leg in the sequence, a first-level allowance race at 1 3/16 miles on dirt. The former ran second on Oct. 16 to a next-out winner at Keeneland after racing competitively at times in stakes company over the summer. And the latter has thrice run well this year, particularly in his last two since blinkers were removed.

Tout finished 1 3/4 lengths behind Ulanbator when fourth behind that rival at Keeneland in their last matchup, but still being lightly raced, Tout seemingly has more room for improvement than Ulanbator.

I’ll also take a lesser shot with the Churchill-loving Is Silver Good (#8), who is perfect in two starts on this surface and who was a bold claim for $50,000 last month at Keeneland. He is a B.

:: Build your pick four ticket with DRF TicketMaker

Race 9: Cardinal Handicap

I’m Already Sexy (#1) and Royal Fury (#14) appear the class of this 1 1/8-mile stakes on grass and are A plays. But in an effort to create value in the pick four, let’s also bet some alternative B runners that will be much larger prices.

Those B horses include Frivolous (#3), cutting back in distance after threatening in the Dowager going a marathon distance; the streaking Bitty Kitty (#4), a winner of four straight; and Nellie Cashman (#8), a graded stakes winner coming off a confidence-building allowance victory at Laurel.

Race 10

Time for one A and two B’s in this race, a $7,500 non-winners-of-two claimer at a mile: The A play is the class-dropping Daddy’s Pleasure (#5), who should improve on the stretch out from a sprint to a one-turn mile, and the B runners are La Belle Princesse (#1), a deep closer who managed a third last out, and comebacking Gunner Gal (#8), who is classy but seemingly disadvantaged by not having started since Jan. 1.

Race 11

Let’s end the pick four sequence in this maiden special weight race at 6 1/2 furlongs with two strictly A’s – Torsie’s Smile (#8), a move-up candidate after racing greenly when fourth after starting from the rail in her debut, and Mountain Candy (#12), who owns the top dirt Beyer Speed Figure, a 68, in running second last out despite getting out and costing herself ground.

The pick four ticket

Plugging the horses mentioned above into TicketMaker yields the combinations pictured below, totaling $63. An all-A ticket is played in $1.50 denominations; one with three A’s and one B is bet in $1 combinations; and lastly, a ticket of two A’s and two B’s is bet in 50-cent amounts.