King: California Chrome has the burst

California Chrome just defeated a more talented, deeper group in the Kentucky Derby, recording his fifth straight stakes victory, and if he runs to his potential at Pimlico, he will win again in the Preakness.

Although the early fractions of the Preakness likely will be much quicker than the slow-paced Kentucky Derby, his temperament and style suggest that California Chrome can adapt. He has the speed to gain position without being headstrong.

It is his ability to accelerate coming into the stretch that sets him apart. He is a rare dirt horse who can open up in a flash, and by the time the closers get into gear, their rallies come too late.

I watched him train at Churchill Downs following the Derby, and he seemed to be a happy horse and still quite fresh. He might not gallop as prettily as others, but his pretty-galloping rivals haven’t been able to stay with him when the running counts in the afternoon.

So, with California Chrome the likely winner, the key to betting the Preakness is to land a price horse beneath him in the exotics. General a Rod might be that horse. One of the top colts in Florida over the winter, he was off the board for the first time in his career in the Derby, finishing 11th after an undesirable trip. Normally a horse who races within a length or so of the early pace, he was doomed seconds into the Derby when he broke poorly and was shut off.

Stuck in traffic with 15 horses in front of him, General a Rod never gave up, passing tired runners and finishing 8 1/2 lengths behind California Chrome.
A stout horse, he seems the type likely to handle the two-week turnaround into the Preakness, especially after having five weeks’ rest prior to the Derby.

If the speed melts down, or if the front-runners simply have their hearts broken when California Chrome unleashes his surge in early stretch, the race sets up for closers to grab the lesser prizes, as they did in the Derby.

Newcomer Kid Cruz would benefit from such a scenario. Though he has not run as fast as others, he rallied to win two consecutive stakes from behind slow splits, including the Federico Tesio Stakes over the Pimlico main track.

Dynamic Impact also could work out a favorable trip from a stalking position. He showed heart to gamely win the Illinois Derby by a nose, albeit over Midnight Hawk, a horse California Chrome had beaten by 7 1/4 lengths in the San Felipe Stakes in March.