King: California Chrome is Derby standout
Saturday, May 3, preview
Happy Derby Day! We’re looking at a fast track, a firm course, and nice weather, with Weather.com calling for a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures should be in the 50s when the card kicks off at 10:30 a.m. and warm to about 70 degrees by the time the Derby is run.
Now to the question of the day: Who’s going to win the Derby?
California Chrome – that’s the prediction here, anyway. Although some have tried to poke holes in the Derby favorite, with concerns raised about him handling the 20-horse field and its hot pace, and others viewing his training at Churchill Downs as subpar, he is a standout based on what he has accomplished.
He owns the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure, a 107, earned in winning the Santa Anita Derby, and his top overall Beyer, a 108, is also best. He leads the field with $1,134,850 in earnings, with most of that coming against top-class competition. He also has impressed visually, being a rare dirt horse who can spurt away from the field in a matter of seconds.
Wicked Strong is my second selection, followed by General a Rod in third. The former appears the best of the closers, while the latter acts like one of the front-runners most likely to stick around late.
Beyond the Derby, as usual, there are a slew of supporting stakes, including some Grade 1 races. But this horseplayer is most intrigued by some of the smaller races that go early on the card.
I like a pair of 5-1 shots on the morning line in the early daily double, starting with Prosecution in the opener, who comes off a wide second at Oaklawn, and then in Race 2, No Surrender, a horse bought privately by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners after an eye-catching maiden win at Hawthorne in which he blew past the leaders and galloped out smartly.
Race 3 brings up an 8-1 selection in Boss Gone, who recently split the field in finishing sixth at Keeneland after a slow break. He should improve following the experience and with the move to dirt, where his trainer, Ian Wilkes, has much better statistics than on Polytrack, the surface over which he raced at Keeneland.
Another play, 8-1 Jessica’s Star in Race 5, also returns to his best surface on dirt after finishing a distant second on turf last out at Keeneland. He is fast, having run Beyers of 93 and 88 at Fair Grounds this winter.
Early scratches
Race 8, America Turf
#7 Big Bazinga
Race 11, Kentucky Derby
#11 Hoppertunity
#21 Pablo Del Monte