King: California Chrome among three favorites to bet against

My wagering strategy this weekend is to bet against star power. Whether the horse is California Chrome in the San Diego Handicap or some striking first-out maiden winners in lesser stakes, the goal is to shoot for value opportunities with less-heralded runners.

So, here is a handicapping glance at the San Diego Handicap, along with a pair of stakes races for 2-year-old fillies, the My Dear from Woodbine and the Miss Ohio from Thistledown.

San Diego Handicap

Let there be no doubt: California Chrome is a special horse and the most likely winner. He has won more than $12 million and just took the Dubai World Cup in dominant fashion for his third consecutive victory this year. He also reportedly has trained very well leading up this race, his first since the World Cup on March 26.

Still, this race is a prep for the Pacific Classic and his first start in four months. And when presented with a horse who is prepping off a layoff, I regularly take a stand against.

Most players seeking an alternative to California Chrome likely will settle on Dortmund, a two-time Grade 1 winner who has won 8 of 10 starts and $1.7 million. But he, like California Chrome, is returning from a layoff, an even longer one that stretches back to Nov. 28, when he won the Native Diver at Del Mar.

These layoffs have me landing on a longshot: the improving Win the Space, who turned in the race of his life June 25 when second to the favored Melatonin in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. If able to replicate that effort, which resulted in a 107 Beyer Speed Figure, and if California Chrome and Dortmund return a bit rusty, then Win the Space has a fighting chance.

Win the Space will be a few ticks higher on the board than he should be under the circumstances, and that makes him worthy of a wager. He is a high-risk, high-reward win play.

My Dear Stakes

Looking north of the border, 2-year-old fillies race six furlongs in the My Dear Stakes at Woodbine, where Forest Circle is 8-5 on the morning line and likely to drop even lower, perhaps below even-money.

She did everything right in her debut, blowing away maidens at Arlington by 8 3/4 lengths while not being asked over the final furlong. She also posted a race-best 79 Beyer.

But I’ve seen far too many first-out maiden winners, particularly those with lofty Beyers, regress in their second starts, and it is important to bear in mind that she is being shipped from Chicago to Canada and is shifting from Polytrack to Tapeta, a slightly different type of synthetic surface.

So, I’m taking seemingly the top local: Raglan Road, who owns the second-highest Beyer, a 68, posted in running second in a restricted stakes June 25. That race was for Ontario-bred runners, but the filly who beat her, Conquest Vivi, looks like an Ontario-bred beast, having dusted a pair of fields at Woodbine for trainer Mark Casse.

Miss Ohio Stakes

The Miss Ohio for 2-year-old fillies also caught my attention due to its 14-horse field and the distinct possibility that Someday Soon will be overbet.

Similar to Forest Circle in the My Dear, Someday Soon won her maiden stylishly, drawing off to an 8 1/2-length victory at Belterra Park on July 4 after being bet down to 1-2 odds. And she had shown potential even before that day when she worked a half mile in 46.60 seconds June 25 at Keeneland.

Pay no heed to the morning line of this race. It appears off on many horses, most notably on Someday Soon, who is listed at 8-1, when she is far more likely to be 2-1 or shorter. (Also, $100,000 purchase Nikki My Darling seems likely to drop sharply from her 20-1 price.)

Taking into account anticipated value, my preference is Halona, who ran a close third June 30 at Presque Isle Downs when making her debut. Although she lost, it is important to note that the race was an open maiden special weight, which is not the case with so many of these fillies exiting Ohio-bred contests or maiden claimers.

Since that time, Halona has recorded a pair of fast works, including a bullet five furlongs at Thistledown on July 15, hopefully an indication that she can make the transition from racing on Presque Isle’s synthetic surface to dirt.

She is an appealing prospect who should start in the 4-1 to 5-1 range.