King: Breeders' Cup pick four play for Friday, Oct. 30

An all-Breeders’ Cup pick four is the highlight exotic wager Friday at Keeneland, beginning in race 6 with the Juvenile Turf, and continuing through the ninth, the day’s big event, the Distaff. As is typical of the Breeders’ Cup races, these are contentious races, virtually necessitating that horseplayers go deep with their wagers. That is the strategy in this corner, anyway.

There is a $1.5 million guaranteed pool for the wager.

:: See Byron King’s pick four play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets

SIXTH RACE, JUVENILE TURF
Although this race is closely matched, I’m going to take a strong stand by making AIROFORCE (8) my lone A horse, or high-percentage play, using DRF Ticketmaker’s exotic-wagering program.

Unbeaten in two starts, he impressed in winning the Grade 3 Bourbon over this course from post 13 and now looks to get a great trip sitting just off the pace from post 8.

I can’t feel confident singling him, however, and will back him up with four B runners: HOLLYWOOD DON (11), CYMRIC (13), BIRCHWOOD (6), and CONQUEST DADDYO (10).

Of that foursome, I like Hollywood Don the most. He is returning to turf after a running third in the Grade 1 FrontRunner on dirt. He showed with two victories on grass at Del Mar this summer that running on turf is what he does best.

SEVENTH RACE, DIRT MILE
In part due to the configuration of the Dirt Mile, which starts near the first turn and ends at the first finish line, it seems probable that a fast pace will ensue, with a number of the jockeys on the speed horses sending their mounts from the start.

The belief is that will play to the strength of LEA (5), a classy Grade 1-winning stalker. He is one of two A runners that go on my pick four tickets, with the other being LIAM’S MAP (3), the favorite, and seemingly the fastest horse, though he won’t offer much value and is among those expected to be a part of the early scramble.

Let’s go with two other inside-drawn horses as backup B runners because there is a run of only about nine seconds before the field hits the first turn. Those two are BRADESTER (2) and RED VINE (1) Both are accomplished milers and capable of sitting just off a demanding pace.

EIGHTH RACE, JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
None of the Europeans strike me as stellar, so I will go with an all-North American play in this race, using HARMONIZE (8), CATCH A GLIMPSE (4), and SAPPHIRE KITTEN (7) as A runners.

Harmonize is slightly preferred of the group, having won both the P.G. Johnson at Saratoga and the Jessamine over this course. And she looks to get a great stalking trip with an alert start.

Catch a Glimpse won the Natalama in fast time on a “good” turf course, so wet turf won’t bother her at all. The issue is whether she can settle just off the pace and avoid a duel with speedy longshot Ruby Notion.

Sapphire Kitten perhaps has the most upside of this group. She is making her second route start since a near-miss to Harmonize in the Jessamine.

To keep the cost of the pick four down, I’ll pass on using any B horses.

NINTH RACE, DISTAFF
With Beholder going in the Classic, as expected, the Distaff is wide open.

I will be going deep, using three horses as A runners. In order of preference: I'M A CHATTERBOX (1), SHEER DRAMA (14) and GOT LUCKY (12).

All are in top form, but I'm thinking I'm a Chatterbox has the most upside as a 3-year-old. Having drawn the rail may help her to avoid a wide trip, which Sheer Drama, for instance, may experience. HopefullyI'm a ‘Chatterbox breaks alertly, something she has not always done.

STELLAR WIND (9), another 3-year-old filly, is a B runner based on her fine year, as is STOPCHARGINGMARIA (4), who has impressed onlookers with her training over the Keeneland surface.

THE TICKETMAKER TICKET
Plugging the horses into Ticketmaker with a 50-cent base and a budget of $195 creates an all A ticket for $1.50; tickets with three A's and a B for $1 apiece; and tickets with two A's and two B's for a 50 cents each.