King: Bluegrass Singer should benefit from outside draw

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Before Gulfstream halted last Saturday’s card due to torrential rain, I liked the outside horse to beat the inside-drawn favorite in the Grade 2 Swale. With that race reset for Saturday, that’s still my opinion – only the specific outside-based choice has changed in a redrawn race from X Y Jet to Bluegrass Singer.

Post position seems a key factor in the Swale, just as it did last week, due to where the heavily favored Daredevil once again landed: the fence. From that position, he might have to take back off the speed and risk getting hemmed in or engage with a quick group of speedsters. Neither option is desirable.

Bluegrass Singer, on the outside in post 8, doesn’t have to be in a rush. His rider, Edgar Prado, can monitor the developments to his inside, likely choosing to stalk or press the pace and potentially boxing in any runners who choose to take back.

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Beyond that tactical advantage, this is a horse who should appreciate being cut back to one turn for the seven-furlong Swale after fading to third in the Holy Bull and sixth in the Fountain of Youth, both two-turn, 1 1/16-mile stakes.

His third in the Holy Bull, which came in a fast, well-rated contest, is likely more representative of his talent level. Last time in the Fountain of Youth, he caught a tiring surface, and the pace he set was too fast for how slowly the track was playing.

Granted, he now is back on merely two weeks’ rest, but such quick returns aren’t out of the norm for his trainer, Marcus Vitali, whose horses typically race productively on quick turnarounds.

Irrespective of the draw, Daredevil still commands respect, as does X Y Jet, who ran second in the Hutcheson at this distance after setting the pace, but they likely won’t offer the betting value of Bluegrass Singer on the odds board.

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Gulfstream Park Handicap

Later on Saturday’s Gulfstream card, I like another outside-drawn speed horse as a value play: Valid in the one-mile Gulfstream Park Handicap.

He figures to get much the same trip as he got last out in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper at the one-mile distance, when he proved a narrow winner in a deep 11-horse field.

Granted, the competition here is better – with Grade 1 winners Private Zone and Wicked Strong in the lineup, plus the talented Honor Code. But on the basis of his form and Beyer Speed Figures, Valid matches up with them.

In addition to his favorable draw, he has something they do not: a win over the track. He is a four-time winner on the Gulfstream dirt.

Private Zone has never raced at Gulfstream and is returning from a layoff going back to Nov. 29, when he won the Cigar Mile, and Wicked Strong and Honor Code were beaten in their races at Gulfstream last winter, when they last competed in Florida.

Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn

Last up, I am intrigued by Oceanwave in the Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn. Although not typically a fan of stretch-out closers, finding them to be overbet, there are others in the Honeybee who likely will capture the public’s attention more.

Sarah Sis nearly beat champion Take Charge Brandi last out in the Martha Washington Stakes despite a poor start and a rough trip, and Promise Me Silver is unbeaten in six races.

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Neither looks like a good bet as one of the favorites. The former seemed to catch Take Charge Brandi in a comeback race that she needed – making the race seem better on paper than it probably was – and Promise Me Silver never has raced two turns and likely will end up chasing a fast pace set by Super Saks, a run-off type.

A fast pace and strung-out field should work to the advantage of the late-running Oceanwave, who won her first start of the Oaklawn meet going away in an allowance despite being cut back from seven to six furlongs.

Pangburn is another who would benefit from hot splits, and she figures to be a force in the lane as well.

But the latter might not quite have the upside of Oceanwave, who has been training swiftly leading up to the Honeybee for trainer Wayne Catalano.

Catalano and Oceanwave’s jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan, are a dynamic duo, having combined for 32 percent winners together in 2014-15.