King: Belmont Day pick four (races 8-11)

The word awesome gets used too much, or maybe that is just in my house, as the father of an 11-year-old and a 10-year-old. But overused or not, there is no better word to describe Saturday’s racing at Belmont Park.

Highlighted, of course, by California’s Chrome’s bid for Triple Crown glory in the Belmont Stakes, it is a spectacular day of racing. But long before the Belmont at 6:52 p.m. Eastern, there will be 10 other races run before it, with more than half of those races filled with many of the leaders of their respective divisions.

This is particularly true in the races over the latter half of the afternoon, and there is even a pick four comprised solely of Grade 1 races being offered that is capped off with the Belmont itself. With wagering increments allowed down to 50 cents and with NYRA guaranteeing a betting pool of $1 million, it is among the most attractive wagers Saturday.

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With that said, it’s time to do some handicapping and devise a pick four wagering strategy. Here goes:

Race 8: Just a Game Stakes, leg 1

A field of 11 fillies and mares were entered for this mile turf contest, and contention runs deep, with only about two or three of them that can be safely eliminated from tickets at first glance. But horseplayers have to draw the line somewhere, and this one chose to limit his ticket to four horses.

Using the A-B-C ranking system used in Daily Racing Form’s Ticketmaker program – with As being the most likely winners, Bs second most likely, etc. – the opinion in this corner is to use two horses as A plays: #6 Stephanie’s Kitten and #10 Better Lucky.

They are two of the top grass mares in the country and well suited to the mile distance of the Just a Game.

There is not a huge gap back to the rest, and also worthy of play are at least two others, #4 Somali Lemonade and #9 Discreet Marq – both of whom are in top form.

Race 9: Metropolitan Mile, leg 2

Despite having drawn the rail, #1 Palace Malice is still the most likely winner of the Met Mile – having gone 3 for 3 this year, including two wins in mile races. Last year’s Belmont winner, he also loves this track and is therefore an A play.

But having a potentially tricky post and given the depth and quality of this year’s Met Mile field, the opinion is to go deep with five B plays: #4 Goldencents, #6 Central Banker, #9 Normandy Invasion, #12 Romansh, and #13 Shakin It Up.

If one of them wins, it gives the pick four blow-up capability.

Race 10: Manhattan Stakes, leg 3

#1 Imagining, having shown an affinity for Belmont Park and being proven at 1 1/4 miles, is the lone A play in the Manhattan.

As in the Met Mile, using multiple horses as B runners seems a good idea. So this horseplayer will include four others: #4 Grandeur, #5 Boisterous, #6 Seek Again, and #8 Real Solution.

The winner of this race will likely be the one who gets the best trip – as the leading contenders appear within a length or two of each other in terms of quality.

Race 11: Belmont Stakes, leg 4

#9 Wicked Strong is my value-priced selection to win the Belmont, although the knock on #2 California Chrome is simply that he will be a short price. The latter is still the most likely winner.

I will use both horses as A runners, with four others as Bs: #4 Commanding Curve, #5 Ride On Curlin, #10 General a Rod, and #11 Tonalist.

Though the latter foursome appears a cut beyond the top two, this is a unique race at 1 1/2 miles that can get quirky results, in part why we have seen five of the last six Belmont winners go off at odds of 11-1 or more. So you won’t find me trimming any of the above.

The tickets

Plugging the horses outlined above into Daily Racing Form’s Tickemaker program, the preferred tickets cost $152. At that level, all A entries can be played in $1.50 combinations; As with one B can be played for a $1 each; and two As and two Bs can be played in 50-cent combinations.