King: Bayern may not fade this time
When I see a horse who appears to have a significant early-speed advantage, I typically upgrade his chances. But this upgrade comes with a caveat: The horse can’t already be regarded as a clear-cut favorite.
The reason being that trainers and jockeys read past performances, too – and if they deem the favorite as having such a pace edge, one or more may choose to alter their horse’s style to apply some early pressure on the perceived lone-speed chalk, particularly in a lucrative stakes race with a lot of cash and prestige on the line.
Think back to the Travers this summer, when Jose Lezcano on Frosted encouraged his mount to go after Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who had appeared – on paper, anyway – to be in position to enjoy an easy, front-running trip. Then the opposite happened: A fast pace ensued, and longshot Keen Ice capitalized, catching American Pharoah as Frosted faded to third.
More rewarding speed plays are those in which opposing jockeys don’t fear the speed, believing the horse beatable regardless of the setup. In these cases, the speed horse is often left alone, and sometimes these front-runners “forget to stop.”
I’ll be hoping – and betting – that is the case with Bayern in Saturday’s Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita. Not only winless in four starts this year since his front-running victory in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic, he has run in the rear half of the field in three races.
But I also think that as lucky as he was last year at 3, catching paceless fields and getting away with impeding rivals at the start, he has been just as unlucky this year.
Bayern’s placement in one-turn races to begin the year didn’t play to his strength – his ability to sustain a high cruising speed over a distance – and then after a decent third in the San Diego Handicap, his abrupt fade to ninth in the Pacific Classic came after he got pushed into a first half-mile in 45 seconds and change.
It’s a different pace scenario in the Awesome Again. He catches a field void of speed, with the possible exception of Smooth Roller to his inside, and Tyler Baze on Smooth Roller probably wants nothing to do with running with Bayern early.
The safe bet for him is to let Bayern clear and try to place his mount a couple of lengths behind, hoping to inherit the lead into the stretch if Bayern throws in the towel yet again.
But perhaps Bayern will keep going, redeeming his reputation a bit before a stud career and rewarding his backers for the first time this year.
Viva Majorca pick in Ack Ack
At Churchill Downs, where three modest stakes are being contested Saturday, the best stakes play is Viva Majorca in the Ack Ack. Coming off a rallying third in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga behind Private Zone and The Big Beast, he finds much softer company in the Ack Ack.
Yet he’s 3-1 on the morning line, compared with 7-5 on Tapiture, who is winless on the year, coming off a rear-half finish, and unraced since June.
I sure hope those odds stick, however improbable. My guess is that Viva Majorca drops to 2-1 by post time, while Tapiture goes up.
Although Tapiture made more than $1.2 million last year – mostly in restricted 3-year-old races with inflated purses – he doesn’t match up with Viva Majorca on current form.
Angle play in Panama City
Also worthy of a look Saturday is the Panama City Stakes at Gulfstream Park, though it is only a $75,000 stakes race for female milers on turf.
That race holds appeal because of an angle: A horse in the race, Maid On a Mission, is coming off a performance in which she was eased.
Why like a horse who distanced and was not asked in the lane by her jockey in her last start? Because it will inflate her odds and can be deemed a forgivable defeat.
A filly purchased for $102,000 at the July select horses-of-racing-age sale at Fasig Tipton, she was ambitiously placed last out in the Grade 1 Beverly D., which was run on yielding ground. And it’s safe to say she didn’t like the company or the going.
Now she’s back at Gulfstream, where trainer Peter Walder is based, and against competition that suits her. And if one looks at some of her earlier races this year – such as when fifth, beaten only 6 1/2 lengths by Tepin, in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile on Derby Day – she has the class to contend with ungraded fillies in Florida.