King: Based on modest pace, favor stalkers in Kentucky Derby

With all the preps for the Kentucky Derby complete, I sat down with the past performances of the Derby’s probable starters on Thursday to try to get a feel for the major pace players and how the race might unfold. What follows are some of my conclusions.

◗ There appears to be only two true speedballs in the expected field – San Felipe Stakes winner Danzing Candy and Wood Memorial winner Outwork. Outwork has only won on the lead, and Danzing Candy has done his best running either on the lead or pushing the early leader.

Post position will understandably play a role in determining tactics with these two horses. Provided Outwork is drawn outside of Danzing Candy, I would theorize that his connections would prefer to lay just off Danzing Candy, maybe sitting right on his flank, knowing Outwork won the Wood Memorial with a pushing-the-pace trip on the outside.

I would guess that while the connections of Danzing Candy would like to see him on the lead, they undoubtedly want him to set a more reasonable pace than the wicked fractions that took a toll on him when he faded to fourth in the Santa Anita Derby.

Bear in mind that in a 20-horse field, having two speedsters isn’t many. It takes only a poor break from one or a change of tactics from the rider of one for the pace to slow noticeably.

◗ Though they aren’t need-the-lead types, others with positional speed include the unbeaten Nyquist and Louisiana Derby winner Gun Runner. They figure to be in close proximity to the pace, though I doubt their jockeys want to go after Danzing Candy or Outwork early and jeopardize the chances of their colts staying the 1 1/4-mile distance. Provided they break well, look for them to be sitting in the next flight, the first group behind the primary speed.

◗ I’m anticipating that Shagaf will revert to a stalking style after an unsuccessful trip when having to rally from well off the pace in the Wood Memorial, where he was fourth. He won his first three starts while sitting relatively close to the leaders. He doesn’t seem as quick as the aforementioned horses but looks like he is capable of sitting in the upper third of the pack with horses such as Destin, Mor Spirit, Majesto, Mohaymen, and, to a lesser extent, Tom’s Ready.

◗ The rest of the field I would classify as closers: Oscar Nominated, Exaggerator, Whitmore, Trojan Nation, Suddenbreakingnews, Brody’s Cause, My Man Sam, Lani, Mo Tom, and Creator.

Exaggerator has the versatility to sit close if necessary, but given how effective he was in rallying from far behind to win the Santa Anita Derby, look for another patient ride in the Derby.

◗ As for “bubble” horses – those who need a defection to get in – only the speedy Laoban would seemingly alter the pace picture with the chance to start. He, like Danzing Candy and Outwork, falls into the “wants to roll” category.

◗ In looking at these groups, my expectation is for a moderate Derby pace.

Closers could therefore be at a disadvantage – also because there are so many of them. This could cause congestion and lead to troubled trips, particularly if the speed horses don’t stretch out the field.

My preferences from a pace standpoint in this Derby are the horses who should race in the second or third flights.

I can’t criticize the favored Nyquist from an examination of pace, particularly in light of how well he adapted when a hot pace and a wide trip unfolded in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. I get the feeling that he is a horse who can be placed wherever regular jockey Mario Gutierrez wishes.

Gun Runner is also similarly handy, though I question the quality of opposition he has beaten at Fair Grounds and his low speed figures.