King: Ball Dancing a key horse in win, pick four plays
Fans coming out to Keeneland on Saturday are advised to bring their rain gear. And horseplayers are wise to start handicapping Keeneland in anticipation of precipitation, too – or so the weathermen say.
In analyzing Saturday’s Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, a 1 1/8-mile turf race for 3-year-old fillies, that means looking for horses with established form over wet ground. And if one makes that a key element of his handicapping, the more appealing Ball Dancing becomes.
Besides having won her first start in America on firm ground in the Grade 2 Sands Point at Belmont, Ball Dancing also won a race on good-to-soft going in France this year. And though in America, courses are not given that specific good-to-soft designation, it is probably the closest thing to what we would call a “yielding” course.
That race in France that she won, contested at 1 3/8 miles, was timed in 2:21 and change – illustrating just how wet the course was. For the purposes of comparison, if the race were run at 1 1/4 miles, a distance with which U.S. horseplayers have more familiarity, it likely would have been timed in 2:07 or 2:08. Judging from the time, the ground obviously was quite tiring.
Adding to the appeal of Ball Dancing is her morning-line price of 9/2 – though that seems overly generous. I would expect her to drop from that number, probably to around 7-2. She is worth a bet at that price or higher.
But no stopping there – let’s also take a shot at a small pick four play at Keeneland. Here are the horses I like in the sequence.
Race 7
Three horses go on the tickets in the seventh, a first-level allowance for 2-year-old fillies, with the choices being, in order of preference, Lovely Maria (#5, 6-1), Sarah Sis (#1, 4-1), and Nagzilla (#8, 7-2).
Lovely Maria won first out in just modest time but was hammered at the betting windows, and Larry Jones-trained juveniles typically run much faster with experience. Sarah Sis won first out and then ran second to Quality Rocks in the Arlington-Washington Lassie, and Nagzilla was a sharp-looking winner of a maiden race at Churchill going shorter last month.
Race 8
I will limit the play to two fillies in the eighth: Street Girl (#5, 8-5) and Divine Beauty (#7, 2-1). Street Girl cuts back to sprinting after an even performance routing last out and is already a winner on a sloppy track. And Divine Beauty is a talented comebacking 3-year-old filly with two wins and a second in stakes company in three races.
Race 9, QE II Challenge Cup
In addition to using top selection Ball Dancing (#6, 9-2), Minorette (#2, 9-2) is another who warrants inclusion on a pick four ticket. She won a Grade 1 in the Belmont Oaks on “good” turf in July. After a recent fourth-place finish in the Lake Placid, when ridden by Jose Lezcano, she is reunited with jockey Joel Rosario, who rode her to her Belmont Oaks triumph.
Ball Dancing and Minorette are both trained by Chad Brown, whose horses consistently run well in major grass races.
Race 10
Last up is a straight maiden race for 2-year-old fillies, and the preference is to single Holiday Twist (#4, 3-1). She ran second in her debut at Churchill after setting the pace and showed promise even before she ran with some quick works at Churchill Downs Trackside. She also benefits from catching an inexperienced field.
If by chance she doesn’t run to expectations, it looks like anyone’s race. So, it seems best to go with Holiday Twist alone or throw a bunch onto the tickets.
A simple 50-cent ticket (presented in program order) of 1,5,8 with 5,7 with 2,6 with 4 can be played for just $6.