King: Appealing Tale has shot to upset San Diego
I suspect many bettors analyzing Saturday’s Grade 2 San Diego Handicap at Del Mar will view Appealing Tale with a degree of skepticism, allowing him to go off as perhaps the fourth betting choice.
A quick glance at his past performances suggests that Appealing Tale is at a class disadvantage against the likes of Grade 1 winners Bayern and Hoppertunity, as well as Catch a Flight, a Grade 2 winner in the United States with two Grade 1 placings. And then there is the issue of the 1 1/16-mile distance of the San Diego, which seems a sixteenth of a mile beyond his best distance.
But even with those factors taken into account, I get the feeling that Appealing Tale should threaten and perhaps even prove the San Diego upsetter.
Why? He is in top form, with three straight finishes in the exacta since May, capped most recently by a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Triple Bend. Second, his Beyer Speed Figures – a pair of 101s on dirt at Santa Anita – are among the best recent ones in the field. And third, his runner-up finish in the seven-furlong Triple Bend came behind Masochistic, the best sprinter on the West Coast and perhaps in the country.
As for the distance, I would feel more confident in him if the San Diego were a mile, but Appealing Tale has settled more kindly in recent races, which might allow him to go the extra distance.
Joe Talamo’s best hope aboard Appealing Tale is to let Bayern clear, put Appealing Tale in an outside pressing position, and hope Bayern is not the horse he was last year. If so, Appealing Tale might prove capable of wearing down Bayern and holding off the rallies of Catch a Flight and Hoppertunity.
Value with 10-1 shot in Sanford
Across the country at Saratoga on Saturday, the Grade 3 Sanford for 2-year-olds presents handicapping challenges with so many of the starters being lightly raced and converging from different tracks.
Typical of a summer stakes for 2-year-olds, the race is loaded with speed, setting the race up for a horse who can finish.
Such a scenario benefits Cocked and Loaded, the 3-1 morning-line favorite, who rallied to win both of his races, including the Tremont Stakes at Belmont. But he figures to drop from his morning line.
The value could prove to be Twirling Cinnamon, the winner of a maiden race in modest time at Churchill Downs on June 19. There, after being blocked behind horses and taking dirt in his face, he found a seam in the stretch and closed determinedly to get up by a nose in a race in which the top two were well clear of the pack.
Twirling Cinnamon is 10-1 on the morning line, perhaps the result of trainer Brad Cox having never run a horse in a stakes at Saratoga. Over the years, Cox has largely run a high-percentage claiming stable, not one that emphasizes juveniles, and Twirling Cinnamon, an $180,000 purchase at auction last year, gives the appearance of being the most promising young horse he has trained.
Angle play in Woodbine’s Colin
Sticking with the babies, the $125,000 Colin on Polytrack at Woodbine also presents a good opportunity in Hollywood Hideaway.
He offers an angle I’ve always liked – supporting a horse who won his last race by disqualification. Such types seem to go off a tick or two higher on the board than they should, with the public almost viewing them as if they were lucky to win.
In watching the replay of Hollywood Hideaway’s race in the June 20 Victoria Stakes on grass, I didn’t get that impression. He overcame a somewhat awkward break to blast out to the lead and then was impeded in losing by a head when the rival to the outside nearly forced him into the portable rail.
The only thing I disliked was Hollywood Hideaway’s reluctance to switch leads until deep stretch.
Now, Hollywood Hideaway shifts to Polytrack, but with the speed he showed first out as well as his sharp works on the surface, he likely adapts.
Several others, notably favored The Zip Zip Man, look legitimate, but with The Zip Zip Man stretching out from 4 1/2 to six furlongs and shipping to Woodbine from Arlington, Hollywood Hideaway is preferred.