King: At 5-2, Airoforce playable in Risen Star

I understand why some will try to beat Airoforce in Saturday’s Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. He is unraced since late November, he had his first start at 3 delayed due to a minor respiratory illness, and he is untested on a fast track, having raced three times on turf and once on a sloppy track.

But I also understand this: He is the real deal. The top American grass 2-year-old of last year, whose lone defeat came by a neck to European raider Hit It a Bomb in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Airoforce followed that race by defeating Bob Baffert’s best Derby hope, Mor Spirit, in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 28, as well as Mo Tom, who subsequently won the Lecomte Stakes and is now one of his chief rivals in the Risen Star.

But what I liked most about his Kentucky Jockey Club performance was not who he beat but how he did so. Hemmed in behind horses in traffic for all but the stretch run, he ate slop for much of the race and, instead of folding, kicked on strongly to win going away. Such a trip could have discouraged a lesser horse.

While it is true that some grass horses can handle slop but might not take to a fast dirt track, I don’t get that impression with Airoforce. He has a dirt pedigree, and the Kentucky Jockey Club was likely representative of dirt ability, wet track or not.

I wish Airofoce were not the morning-line favorite and offered more value. But I’m guessing there will be enough bettors who question Airoforce that he won’t dip below his 5-2 morning line. And if so, even as the favorite, he would warrant a wager.

It is not as if his opponents are without fault: Mo Tom is a come-from-the-clouds closer, and such types are often pace dependent; Gun Runner was already beaten by Airoforce in the Kentucky Jockey Club, flattening out after surging to the lead in midstretch; and Tom’s Ready and Uncle Walter need lengths of improvement after falling short of Mo Tom in the Lecomte.

Those factors make the drawbacks to backing Airoforce easier to accept.

Oh Oz looks good in WEBN Stakes

Sticking in the 3-year-old division, I like Oh Oz to win the WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park on Saturday night. A winner of three straight, he has dominated the opposition over Turfway’s Polytrack surface in two starts this winter, winning by a combined 14 1/2 lengths.

This is the strongest opposition Oh Oz has faced, but his affinity for racing over Polytrack suggests that he will prove victorious yet again. Others in the lineup don’t fit the conditions as well as him, either wanting to run long on grass or short on dirt. And a couple of others are in the race because a stakes race for fillies at Turfway was not rescheduled after last Saturday’s cancellation of racing.

Yet Oh Oz fits the race perfectly, scoring his two wins at Turfway in sprints, with his most recent score also coming at this race’s 6 1/2-furlong distance.

I’m hoping that lofty speed figures from Surgical Strike and the flashy connections of Banree result in those two taking wagering action and leaving Oh Oz to start at close to his 4-1 morning line. Such odds would be fair on Oh Oz, who has run faster with each race in four starts.

You Bought Her key horse in Minaret

My wagering focus in Saturday’s Minaret Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs is twofold. First, I view You Bought Her us the probable winner, and second, I’m hopeful that one of the secondary favorites, 3-1 La Madrina, can finish out of the exacta.

So, my strategy is to focus on those opinions, keying You Bought Her on top in the exacta over three decent-priced horses in No Fault of Mine, R Sassy Lass, and Legal Laura .

Backtracking a bit, the reasons for liking You Bought Her are hard to miss: She’s fast, battle tested in top company, and 3 for 4 on the Tampa main track, her winter training base. She won this race last year, in fact.

As for La Madrina, she’s a useful horse but one who seems likely to be overbet as a daughter of Tapit and a mare who has raced mostly in New York. But she lacks local experience, and her only stakes placing in 11 starts came when third in a six-horse field at Aqueduct in December.

No Fault of Mine, R Sassy Lass, and Legal Laura are all winners on the Tampa surface, perhaps giving them an edge over La Madrina, who is shipping in from Payson Park.