King: 2018 Preakness analysis

After pushing demanding splits of 22.24 seconds, 45.77, and 1:11.01 over sloppy going in the Kentucky Derby, JUSTIFY had a right to be caught in the lane by juvenile champion Good Magic, but instead he turned aside his bid and drew clear as the stronger horse. His winning time was slow by Derby standards, 1 1/4 miles in 2:04.20, but he still ran faster than his rivals did, and all the best 3-year-olds were there.

That is not the case in the Preakness. Aside from Good Magic, only Bravazo, who ran sixth in the Derby, and Lone Sailor, who ran eighth, are back for another try. And the rest are new shooters with limited stakes accomplishments.

Justify should win the Preakness if he maintains his form on the two-week turnaround. And he has given the impression he will. Although a hind heel was sensitive the day after the race, that has seemed a non-issue in his training over the past week. He has traveled smoothly and energetically, while appearing to maintain his weight – and he was already a stout horse.

Plus, he has established credentials over wet tracks, and there is rain in the forecast.

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Based on value, LONE SAILOR is the second selection. He is a longshot that perhaps could sneak into the gimmicks if a lively pace ensues as it did in the Derby.

Perhaps if others go with Justify early or simply have their hearts broken by chasing him in vain, a deep closer such as Lone Sailor may pick up some pieces. It has happened in recent years – late-runners such as 28-1 Tale of Verve and 17-1 Cherry Wine were second in 2015 and 2016, respectively.

TENFOLD, a stalker who won his first two races before a fifth in the Arkansas Derby, is another price horse to use in the gimmicks. Lightly raced, he has more right to improve than others, and he may be a bit fresher than those that raced in the Derby. His Arkansas Derby was better than it looks on paper. He lost a blanket finish for second by a half-length.

Derby runner-up GOOD MAGIC, the champion juvenile of 2017 and the Blue Grass winner of this year, is obviously the second-most-likely winner of this Preakness behind Justify, but exactas with those two will offer short prices. So purely from a wagering perspective, the chance for a decent payoff lies in trying alternatives.

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