King: 2018 Kentucky Derby analysis
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLEBOLT D’ORO seems the Kentucky Derby contender most likely to offer betting value. Despite being fast and accomplished, he lacks the pre-race buzz of other horses, likely the result of coming off a loss in his final prep and being overshadowed in the media build-up.
Although no match for Derby favorite Justify when second to him most recently in the Santa Anita Derby, he performed well to finish within a few lengths after doing the dirty work of chasing that talented, loose-on-the-lead rival. And now the complexion of the Kentucky Derby appears quite different, with a much larger field and more pace.
It is not out of the question to think that there is at least a possibility that Justify could regress, perhaps setting up Bolt d’Oro, a capable stalker, to be successful at a square price. Odds of 8-1 would represent a playable price.
In a race in which it seems many colts prefer to race prominently early, the adaptable, off-the-pace style of Florida Derby winner AUDIBLE also should be advantageous. This colt can sit close in a tracking position if needed, or settle more than 10 lengths behind, as he did behind furious splits in his winning performance in the Florida Derby. He seems like another legitimate 8-1 shot, though with two-time Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher in his corner and having received media attention this week, he might start at a price shorter than that of Bolt d’Oro.
As for JUSTIFY, he acts like a star, a horse as quick as he is physically imposing. But judging from his legion of supporters, he seems probable to dip below his 3-1 morning line, which would make him overbet given the daunting task for an inexperienced horse facing 19 rivals in the free-for-all that is the Kentucky Derby.
MAGNUM MOON, like Justify, is trying to become the first unraced 2-year-old to win this race since Apollo in 1882. Perfect in four starts, he might have gone favored in a typical Kentucky Derby, but this year’s renewal seems very much atypical. It drew not only a stellar group of fast American horses, but also Mendelssohn, the blowout winner of the UAE Derby who has run well all over the world, including in the United States, scoring in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall.
Of the big-name horses in the Derby, Mendelssohn seems the one most likely to go off form given his demanding travels across the globe and limited dirt experience.