King: 2018 Belmont Stakes analysis
VINO ROSSO was a non-factor in the Kentucky Derby, running ninth with a clean trip, but he is significantly better than he displayed in the slop that afternoon. He seemed to struggle over the off going, with jockey John Velazquez slapping him on the shoulder a few times to no response, and the colt dropped out of contention passing the wire the first time.
Look for a more inspired effort in the Belmont, particularly if he can catch dry ground. He illustrated in winning the Wood Memorial a start before the Derby that he is a horse that can put together a top-class race, and few are better at preparing a horse for the Belmont than his trainer, Todd Pletcher. Pletcher has won three Belmonts, first with Rags to Riches in 2007, then with Palace Malice in 2013, and Tapwrit last year.
This horse acts as if he should appreciate the 1 1/2-mile distance of the race, both in terms of running style and pedigree.
HOFBURG handled the wet going at Churchill Downs in the Derby, but lost all chance due to poor racing luck. Saving ground down the backstretch, he ran into traffic on the second turn, forcing jockey Irad Ortiz to steady him repeatedly. Once clear in the stretch, he finished well, rallying to be seventh from a hopeless position.
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He seems a prominent player in the Belmont off a Derby performance that was much better than his finish. He is the second selection behind Vino Rosso simply because he doesn’t offer the anticipated betting value of the top choice.
Triple Crown hopeful JUSTIFY is the most likely Belmont winner, but he is not so likely a winner that he deserves to go off shorter than even money versus a deep cast. As gifted as he is, he was not as dominant as usual in winning the Preakness, which might indicate that his taxing spring schedule is catching up to him.
Working in his favor is an apparent absence of pace in the Belmont. Of his rivals only Gronkowski and Noble Indy have shown regular early speed, and neither is assured of pressuring Justify. Gronkowski comes from Europe, where races are run slower early than in the United States, and Noble Indy shares partial ownership with Justify – so a head-to-head early battle would not be in his owners’ interests.
TENFOLD came from a stalking position into the stretch of the Preakness and seemed to have Justify in his sights, only to even out in the final sixteenth of a mile to be third, beaten three-quarters of a length. That race represented vast improvement upon his fifth in the Arkansas Derby in his first stakes attempt, and continued progression would make him dangerous, though the lineup in the Belmont seems superior to that in the Preakness.