King: 2017 Belmont Stakes analysis

IRISH WAR CRY seemed to be moving well for most of the Kentucky Derby, right in contention until the top of the stretch, and then jockey Rajiv Maragh went from having plenty of horse to suddenly none, and the colt faded to 10th, beaten 16 lengths. After that race, trainer Graham Motion seemed inclined to skip the rest of the Triple Crown. But after being encouraged by the colt’s training, he changed course and opted for the Belmont.

This is a horse who is very good at his best – he has twice won graded stakes this year with matching 101 Beyer Speed Figures – and very bad when he is not, as reflected by a loss of 21 lengths in the Fountain of Youth to go along with his Derby thumping.

But if he runs his race, the Belmont is his race for the taking. Lacking Derby winner Always Dreaming, Preakness winner Cloud Computing, and juvenile champ Classic Empire, this is a soft renewal of the Belmont.

Bear in mind that Irish War Cry beat both Classic Empire and Cloud Computing this year, defeating Classic Empire in the Grade 2 Holy Bull and Cloud Computing in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. He has handled better foes than he faces Saturday.

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TAPWRIT could be dangerous at a price. Sixth in the Kentucky Derby, he should be ready for a peak performance with five weeks between starts – the type of spacing trainer Todd Pletcher likes to give his horses. Although not a threat to win either of his last two starts, his earlier races were promising and would seem to suggest that he can have a say in the Belmont if he reverts to that form.

Japanese invader EPICHARIS seems more talented than Lani, another Japanese horse who was third in this race last year. Naturally speedy, he can be placed on the lead or just off the pace, and he is a head away from being unbeaten in five starts. He also is a nice-moving horse with the pedigree to stay the 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont.

J BOYS ECHO has picked up the tempo in his works since the Kentucky Derby, in which he was 15th with a troubled trip. That could be a sign that he is cycling back to his best. He beat Cloud Computing in the Grade 3 Gotham earlier this year, earning a 102 Beyer. He is reunited with jockey Robby Albarado, who could not ride him in the Derby after breaking a leg in a fall at Keeneland in late April. The colt is 2 for 5 with Albarado up.