Key contenders for Breeders' Cup Mile

MAKE BELIEVE (No Beyers)
• Trainer Andre Fabre’s long Breeders’ Cup record stands at a solid 45-4-6-7-1-2-2, and though Fabre is winless in the Mile, this horse and Esoterique give him his best chance yet. This lightly raced 3-year-old has had some very encouraging performances. New Bay, who finished a good third in the Arc, wants to run farther than the mile of the French 2000 Guineas, but he’s not hapless at that trip, and Make Believe thrashed him. His last-start win in the Prix de la Foret was similarly excellent, showing off athleticism and strong acceleration. He’s well drawn and seems a decent chance to handle softer turf Saturday. Hope for a fair price of 4-1 or higher.

KARAKONTIE (Last Beyer: 110)
• Won last year’s Mile at a huge price and can win again at generous odds. The goal all year has been this very race, and his season’s start was delayed by a quarter crack. Conditions and circumstances weren’t right in his two starts this year, both high-end Group 1’s, and he was surprisingly sent to the lead last out. Has made a favorable physical appearance this week at Keeneland.

ESOTERIQUE (No Beyers)
• Fabre’s two Mile starters are hard to separate, but I prefer Make Believe, though this mare has been pointed to the race longer. If you wanted to nitpick, you could question the strength of the best horses she’s recently beaten, and it’s fair to wonder if she can deliver her best on a tight-turning, left-handed course since straightaway racing has been her forte. Trainer says she doesn’t want heavy ground, but soft should be okay.

TIME TEST (No Beyers)
• He’s a horse with a lot of talent and upside, but things have gone against him this week. Aside from one mile being on the short side of his ideal distance range, he drew poorly in post 12 and came here, according to trainer Roger Charlton, looking for firm going that he’s not going to find.

MONDIALISTE (Last Beyer: 104)
• Trainer David O’Meara said last week that a rainy Breeders’ Cup would be just fine for his horse, and Mondialiste is in line to get the going he prefers. Needs a step forward – or steps back from several others – to beat these, as his Woodbine Mile performance is not quite good enough. But that’s not out of the question, and the price will be right.

IMPASSABLE (No Beyers)
• Three-year-old filly has yet to contest a Group 1, but she did beat Filly and Mare Turf contender Miss France, the winner of the 2014 French 1000 Guineas, in her last start. Not sure she’ll relish the softer going.

GRAND ARCH (Last 3 Beyers: 103-102-98)
• He’s in good form and loves the Keeneland course, but his draw along the rail seems less than ideal, and this is a far stronger group than he beat last out in the Shadwell Turf Mile, where everything went right. Soft going doesn’t bother him at all.

TOURIST (Last 3 Beyers: 102-99-90)
• He’s interesting but might not be good enough. Not fully exposed, and the total change in running style – which came with some success – in the Shadwell is worth noting. Terrible trip eliminated him from last year’s Mile, he’s on an upward pattern, and the exercise rider said he worked well enough on the softer going Monday.

TEPIN (Last 3 Beyers: 108-101-101)
• Yes, she won easily in the First Lady, but one has to wonder if she can sustain that peak performance level three weeks later. Ran the race of her life, simply cruising away from overmatched foes after stalking the pace, and is in line for a similar trip behind Obviously here. Clearly handled wet going on this course, but trainer is 23-0-1-1 in BC races, and the guess is that she doesn’t run back to the First Lady.