Kentucky Oaks futures overlays and underlays

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – With 10 set for the 139th Kentucky Oaks and their post-time odds fairly easy to gauge, there clearly are some overlays and underlays stemming from when Churchill Downs offered its only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager pool in early March.

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Perhaps most notably, fans who had the foresight nine weeks ago to bet on Dreaming of Julia at 16-1 in the Oaks futures will be getting a much better deal than those accepting win odds in the 2-1 range Friday.

Likewise, Midnight Lucky looks like a very good deal at 16-1 in the futures, as do Close Hatches at 29-1 and Rose to Gold at a whopping 65-1.

Unlimited Budget (9-1) and Beholder (8-1) also could carry a bit of value in the futures by sporting marginally lower odds Friday, while Princess of Sylmar is kind of a wash after closing at 19-1 in the futures and being 20-1 on the Oaks morning line.

Conversely, anyone who got 10-1 on Pure Fun (30-1 morning line) has to feel pretty lousy about their futures play – although not as badly as anyone who played Flashy Gray as the 6-1 favorite and then discovered the filly was scratched Wednesday by trainer Bill Mott with a minor injury.

Also, with the mutuel field, the 24th or “all others” option, closing at a mere 7-1 in the Oaks futures, there is sparse coverage with only Silsita and Seaneen Girl, both 20-1 on the morning line.

The Oaks futures pool ran March 1-3, coinciding with the second of three Derby futures pools.

After Flashy Gray, the filly with the next-lowest odds in the Oaks futures that did not make the race was Emollient at 11-1.