Here, in post position order, are my final impressions of all 21 potential Kentucky Derby starters from observations made over the past several weeks both at Churchill Downs and in south Florida.
A week out from the 2012 Kentucky Derby a news release came from Team Valor International, the ownership group headed by Barry Irwin that won the 2011 Derby with Animal Kingdom.
To anyone who calls himself a speed handicapper, there should be no doubt about the identity of the best colt in the Kentucky Derby. When Bodemeister won his final prep race, the Arkansas Derby, he appeared to be in a class by himself. The average winning Beyer Speed Figure in the Kentucky Derby is 108, and top contenders are expected to approach that number in their prep races. Hansen and Union Rags have never run better than 96.
Bodemeister opened as the morning-line favorite for Saturday’s 138th running of the Kentucky Derby, and a check of early betting on offshore websites shows that might end up being the case, but Nevada race books still consider Union Rags as the betting favorite as far as their future books are concerned.
Daddy Long Legs, the Aidan O’Brien-trained Irish invader for the Kentucky Derby, arrived at Churchill Downs about 4:30 a.m. Wednesday. He was heartily welcomed later in the day by being awarded dreaded post 1 at the Derby post position draw.
Mario Gutierrez watched Animal Kingdom win the Kentucky Derby last year on a television in the jockeys’ room at Hastings Race Course in Vancouver, Canada. Little could he have possibly known that he would be riding in the Derby the following year. Gutierrez, 25, is one of four jockeys who will be riding in the Derby for the first time, although that could become five if My Adonis was to make it off the also-eligibles list as No. 21 with Elvis Trujillo aboard.
Gemologist has won all five of his starts, including the Wood Memorial, and owns two victories at Churchill Downs. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, won the Derby just two years ago and has won four Eclipse Awards. Yet when Gemologist starts on Saturday in the 138th Kentucky Derby, he is likely to be no better than the third choice, behind Bodemeister and Union Rags. That is one of the prime examples of the depth and quality of this Derby – a horse with Gemologist’s credentials is playing third fiddle.
At first, trainer Michael Matz wasn’t so thrilled with Union Rags's draw of post 4 for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, believing he might be down too far inside. But upon further review, Matz thinks it might not be such a bad post after all.
Rajiv Maragh finally got some sleep Wednesday night. Earlier in the day, he received the phone call from trainer Kiaran McLaughlin confirming that he would ride Wood Memorial runner-up Alpha in Saturday’s $2 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
To a man, the 32 living riders who have won a Kentucky Derby understand the remorseless formula required to win the Derby. It takes the right horse and the right trip, each ingredient in perfect proportion.
