Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 17, 2021

WHO’S HOT

Concert Tour, the co-fifth choice last week for the May 1 Kentucky Derby on the line of Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee, had his price nearly halved, from 15-1 to 8-1, after his runaway victory in the Rebel Stakes last Saturday at Oaklawn. The lone newcomer to this week’s list is Rebel runner-up Hozier, who becomes the fifth Bob Baffert trainee in the top 20, joining stablemates Concert Tour, race favorite Life Is Good, Medina Spirit, and Spielberg. He is a 30-1 on McGee’s line.

WHO’S NOT

Caddo River, fifth as the favorite in the Rebel, was dropped from the list to make room for Hozier. He’ll get a chance to redeem himself in the Arkansas Derby, which trainer Brad Cox on Tuesday said would be his next start, and in which he’ll likely have a rematch with Concert Tour. Keepmeinmind, a distant sixth in the Rebel, was left on the list owing to the Rebel being his 3-year-old debut after missing training time, but the rope is frayed. He’s up to 50-1 on McGee’s line after being 20-1 a week ago.

ON THE BUBBLE

The only points-scoring race this week is the Louisiana Derby on Saturday at Fair Grounds, the first of the final round of preps worth 170 points overall, including 100 for first and 40 for second. O Besos, Rightandjust, Run Classic, and Starrinmydreams can move onto the list with a one-two finish against the likes of current Derby Watch members Hot Rod Charlie, Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon, and Proxy.

–Jay Privman