Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 15

WHO’S HOT

State of Honor, second in the Tampa Bay Derby last Saturday, is the lone newcomer to the Derby Watch top 20, his presence owing in large part to the unfortunate injury sustained by San Felipe Stakes winner Mastery that has removed him from the Kentucky Derby trail. State of Honor is a 50-1 shot on the Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. McCraken, the Derby favorite, is down to 5-1 after being 6-1 a week ago. Tapwrit, the Tampa Bay Derby winner, is the fifth choice at 12-1 after being 20-1 last week. Iliad, second in the San Felipe, is now 15-1 from last week’s 20-1. Mastery’s defection also contributed to slight price drops for One Liner (10-1 from 12-1) and Battalion Runner (25-1 from 30-1).

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Derby Watch: A pinch-hit home run? It's happened before

WHO’S NOT

Mastery, who was 8-1 last week and would have been Watchmaker’s favorite this week had he not exited the San Felipe injured, is the lone defection from the top 20. Gormley, fourth in the San Felipe, saw his price rise to 25-1 from last week’s 15-1.

ON THE BUBBLE

Lookin At Lee and Uncontested, former members of the top 20, can work their way back onto the list with a strong performance Saturday in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, the lone Derby prep on the docket this weekend. Just missing the cut this week were Wild Shot, third in the Tampa Bay Derby, and Term of Art, third in the San Felipe.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis