Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 4, 2026

WHO’S HOT

Nearly opens as the 10-1 favorite on the Derby Watch Top 20 after a dominant 5 3/4-length victory last Saturday in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. He has now won three straight races after a head-scratching debut and will point to the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28.

Golden Tempo successfully stretched out from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles in a professional, if not overly fast, victory in the Grade 3 Lecomte on Jan. 17. The Risen Star on Feb. 14 should tell more.

Let’s call Bravaro lukewarm. The New York-bred hadn’t raced since October and did make a bid finishing second to Nearly, albeit well back.

Mother Nature, at least figuratively. In forcing the postponement of the Withers and Southwest from last weekend to Friday, it made it difficult to come up with a “Who’s Hot” list.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2026: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

WHO’S NOT

Ted Noffey, the undefeated champion 2-year-old male of 2025, was declared off the Triple Crown trail due to bone bruising. The hope is he can return for the second half of 2026.

Litmus Test, the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Derby winner, was scratched from Friday’s Southwest Stakes, for which he was the morning-line favorite, because trainer Bob Baffert felt he needed more time.

Brant, the Grade 1-winning 2-year-old, has only had two works in the month of January. Baffert said he is trying to make the Rebel on March 1 at Oaklawn with him.

Cannoneer and Incredibolt were huge disappointments in the Holy Bull, with Cannoneer likely displaying distance limitations. Incredibolt, winner of the Street Sense Stakes to end his 2-year-old season, finished last, beaten 25 1/4 lengths. Incredibolt came out of race well, and trainer Riley Mott said he is hoping it was just a matter of him despising the Gulfstream track.

ON THE BUBBLE

Buetane gets his two-turn test Friday in the Southwest after two runner-up finishes in graded stakes going seven furlongs. Jackson Hole is 2 for 2 and will get his stakes debut in the Fountain of Youth.

Six Speed has gone 3 for 3 and is pointing to the Dubai Road to the Kentucky Derby Stakes (formerly the Al Bastakiya) on Feb. 20.

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