Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 16, 2022

WHO'S HOT

Todd Pletcher, a two-time Kentucky Derby winner, has four of the runners on the inaugural Derby Watch top 20. Other trainers with multiple runners include Steve Asmussen and Chad Brown, with two each, and Kenny McPeek, whose duo includes Smile Happy, the 5-1 favorite on the line for the May 7 Derby authored by Marty McGee of Daily Racing Form. Six of the 20 horses are in the Risen Star on Saturday at Fair Grounds.

WHO'S NOT

Owing to the situation, as of publication, with Bob Baffert – explained in detail below – there are just two horses currently based in California on the list, Forbidden Kingdom and Slow Down Andy. Brad Cox, whose Mandaloun finished second in last year’s Derby to Medina Spirit – and who could end up the Derby winner depending on how that race is adjudicated – does not have anything on the list as of now.

ON THE BUBBLE

Messier and Newgrange unquestionably would be on this list in normal times. In fact, McGee said Messier would have been favored had he been included in the top 20. At the moment, since Baffert runners have yet to earn any points owing to Churchill Downs barring Baffert from the 2022 Derby, the Derby Watch committee decided to not include those runners. However, that could change in an instant based on any developments – such as the decision of Kentucky Horse Racing Commission stewards hearing the 2021 Derby case, or any other rulings from the commission or a court – that would allow those horses to earn points and thus make the Derby field. As of now, the partnership that owns Messier and Newgrange has given no indication it intends to move those horses to another trainer.