Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 11, 2026

WHO'S HOT

Todd Pletcher. One week after winning the Grade 3 Holy Bull with Nearly, Pletcher won the Sam F. Davis with Renegade, who made a solid 3-year-old debut, closing on a Tampa Bay Downs track that favored forwardly placed runners. Pletcher will look to keep the momentum rolling Saturday with Courting in the Grade 2 Risen Star.

Paladin, who beat Renegade in the Remsen on Dec. 6, was lowered to 10-1 favoritism on David Aragona’s Derby Watch line. Paladin will get a chance to validate that status in the Risen Star. Aragona has Renegade and Nearly as co-second choices at 12-1.

Silent Tactic, the Smarty Jones runner-up, showed a nice turn of foot rallying from 11th to win the 12-horse, Grade 3 Southwest on Feb. 6 going away. Expect him to run back in the Rebel on March 1.

Plutarch, coming off a maiden win on turf, scored his first dirt victory in the Robert B. Lewis with second- and third-place finishers Intrepido and Secured Freedom also running well. Secured Freedom earned a spot in the Derby Watch Top 20.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2026: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

WHO'S NOT

Confessional and Strategic Risk were removed from the Top 20 with disappointing, seemingly excuse-free efforts in the Sam Davis and Southwest, respectively.

Desert Gate, fourth in the Lewis, stayed on the list, but mostly based on what he did as a 2-year-old earning him a mulligan.

ON THE BUBBLE

The New York-bred Talk to Me Jimmy came off a three-month layoff to beat open company by 11 lengths in the Feb. 6 Withers in his first race around two turns. He just missed the Derby Watch cut in part because he took advantage of a track bias and didn’t run particularly fast. Let’s see how the Wood goes.

Debuting 3-year-olds Emerging Market and Powershift were impressive finishing one-two in a maiden race at Tampa Bay Downs in a fast time. They lack experience – and maybe time – to make the Derby but are certainly 3-year-olds to watch moving forward.

Express Kid, the Springboard Mile winner, makes his first start for new connections in Sunday’s $500,000 Sunland Derby.

Class President was a well-beaten second to Solitude Dude in the Jan. 31 Swale, but I suspect he wants to stretch out and may get that chance to do so next month.

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