Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 24, 2024

WHO’S HOT

Form prevailed in major Kentucky Derby preps this season – 16 of the last 17 graded stakes were won by the first or second favorite. Turnover has been minimal, and the final Derby Watch prior to the Derby draw on Saturday is similar to the first Derby Watch. Eight of the top 12 candidates listed on the Feb. 9 Derby Watch remain on the list; 11 of 20 overall.

Fierceness, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, is 3-1 favorite on Derby Watch after his romp in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Muth, the BC Juvenile runner-up who is ineligible to the Kentucky Derby, won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. The point is, the top 2023 juveniles remain top 3-year-olds in 2024.

Fierceness will enter the Derby with the biggest speed figure advantage in two decades. The 110 Beyer Speed Figure that Fierceness earned in the Florida Derby is 12 points higher than the last-start figure of any other Kentucky Derby candidate. The last time that happened was 2005, when Bellamy Road entered the Derby with a 12-point advantage over Afleet Alex (120-108). Bellamy Road finished seventh; Afleet Alex third.

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Grand Mo the First, who was on the bubble, is insured a Derby berth with 37 points. Frankie Dettori picked up the Derby mount on longshot Society Man. Dettori’s only previous Derby mount was sixth-place China Visit in 2000.

WHO’S NOT

Deterministic is officially out of the Derby; he finished eighth in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. Common Defense, the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes runner-up who would have been first into the field with one more defection, reportedly missed a workout and will not enter.

ON THE BUBBLE

Endlessly and Encino are points-qualified for the Derby; neither is a confirmed starter as of midweek. Endlessly won the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks. He will run in the Derby or Grade 2 American Turf on the Derby undercard. Encino won the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes. Epic Ride, third in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, would make the Derby field with one more defection.

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