Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 17, 2024

WHO’S HOT

Encino’s wire-to-wire victory in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland earned him sufficient qualifying points to make the Kentucky Derby field following the defection of No More Time. The top 19 on the points list, in addition to Japan Road to the Derby points leader T O Password, gain a Derby berth.

Trainer Brad Cox said Encino’s next start will be the Kentucky Derby on May 4 or the Preakness Stakes on May 18 at Pimlico. A decision will be made when Encino resumes training. Encino, who won 2 of 3 on synthetic before switching to dirt in the Lexington, opens at 25-1 on Derby Watch. Cox has three Derby candidates – Catching Freedom, Just a Touch, and Encino.

WHO’S NOT

No More Time was injured in a workout Sunday and is out of the Derby. No More Time won the Grade 3 Sam Davis in February at Tampa Bay Downs and finished second in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.

Hades finished seventh in the Lexington and is off the Derby trail. “We are going to regroup,” trainer Joe Orseno told Keeneland publicity. Liberal Arts also misfired in the Lexington; he finished sixth. Deterministic, the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes winner who finished eighth in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, is unlikely to enter the Derby.

ON THE BUBBLE

In addition to 20 starting slots in the Kentucky Derby, four also-eligibles are allowed. Derby post positions will be drawn April 27; also-eligible preference is based on Derby qualifying points. The tiebreaker is earnings in unrestricted stakes.

Endlessly has sufficient points to make the Derby and remains listed on Derby Watch, but he is not a confirmed starter. Winner of the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway, Endlessly has never raced on dirt, nor worked particularly well on dirt. He will run May 4 at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby or Grade 2 American Turf.

As of Wednesday, anticipating Deterministic will defect and open a spot for No. 21-ranked Grand Mo the First, the top also-eligible Derby candidates are Common Defense and Epic Ride.

– Brad Free