Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 11, 2018

WHO’S HOT

The unbeaten Justify, a prominent member of the Derby Watch top 20 since his debut, completed his ascent in the rankings by taking over the top spot following his victory in the Santa Anita Derby. He is the 4-1 favorite on the line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, after being the second choice last week at 6-1. Mendelssohn, the co-third choice last week at 8-1, is now the second choice at 6-1.

There are two newcomers – Free Drop Billy and Vino Rosso – to this week’s top 20. Vino Rosso, the winner of the Wood Memorial, is 12-1 on Watchmaker’s line. Free Drop Billy, who has been on the list previously, returns after earning sufficient points in the Blue Grass Stakes to make the 20-horse Derby field. He is 30-1 on Watchmaker’s line.

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WHO’S NOT

Instilled Regard and Restoring Hope were removed from the list after failing to run well enough last Saturday to stay on the Derby trail. Last week’s favorite, Bolt d’Oro, had his price raised by Watchmaker from 5-1 to 8-1 after he finished second in the Santa Anita Derby. Bolt d’Oro is now the co-third choice on Watchmaker’s line with Audible, the Florida Derby winner.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Kentucky Derby: Halcyon days for loaded Pletcher barn

ON THE BUBBLE

Firenze Fire has enough points to make the 20-horse Derby field, and he will move onto the list next week if he is not leapfrogged this Saturday by the likes of My Boy Jack and others who are running in the Lexington Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. After that, the Derby Watch list will be entirely points driven, reflecting the likely Derby field.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis