Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 10, 2024
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WHO’S HOT
Sierra Leone’s impressive 98 Beyer Speed Figure victory in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland cemented his status as one of the top choices in the Kentucky Derby; Derby Watch linemaker David Aragona lowered Sierra Leone to 7-2, a tick below 3-1 favorite Fierceness.
Just a Touch produced the best effort of his career in the Blue Grass; runner-up by 1 1/2 lengths while finishing nearly four lengths clear of third. Just a Touch earned a 95 Beyer, and Aragona lowered his price to 12-1. Just a Touch will make his fourth career start in the Derby, same as Derby winners Mage in 2023; Justify, 2018; and Big Brown, 2008.
Resilience, who added blinkers and won a modest edition of the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, enters Derby Watch at 20-1. Wood runner-up Society Man makes the cut at 40-1. Stronghold won the low-rated Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby with an 89 Beyer; he drops to 25-1.
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Grand Mo the First, third in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, would have enough points to make the Kentucky Derby if Deterministic or Endlessly defect, and contingent on the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland. For now, Grand Mo the First ranks 21st on points; he is 40-1.
WHO’S NOT
Three Wood starters are off Derby Watch – Uncle Heavy, fifth; Tuscan Sky, seventh; and Deterministic, eighth at odds-on. Dornoch finished a flat fourth in the Blue Grass, but qualifies for the Derby on points. Dornoch’s odds drift to 20-1.
ON THE BUBBLE
The final Derby slots hinge on Deterministic and Endlessly, and the Lexington Stakes. Deterministic is not likely for Derby. Endlessly, who has never started on dirt, will run in either the Derby or Grade 2 American Turf on the undercard.
Lexington entrants with Derby aspirations include Hades (30 points), Encino (20), and Liberal Arts (19). Hades would clinch a berth by winning the Lexington, which awards 20 points to first, 10 to second. A runner-up finish by Hades would tie him with Grand Mo the First at 40 points; Hades would win the tiebreaker on earnings in unrestricted stakes.
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