Kentucky Derby prospects aplenty at Santa Anita this winter

ARCADIA, Calif. – One season after California Chrome emerged from the winter preps at Santa Anita to capture both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, it appears the current crop of locally based runners for the 2015 Kentucky Derby is both strong and deep.

At Santa Anita right now, you could walk through the stable area and encounter the likes of American Pharoah, Dortmund, and Texas Red, who among them won the Del Mar Futurity, FrontRunner Stakes, Los Alamitos Futurity, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Also here are the unbeaten Ocho Ocho Ocho, winner of the Delta Jackpot, and Firing Line, a close second to Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Toss in Calculator, second to American Pharoah in both the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner, and the unbeaten Acceptance, a California-bred seeking to follow the path of California Chrome, and it’s easy to see why Bob Baffert, who trains American Pharoah and Dortmund, described this group as “super strong.”

Santa Anita opens on Friday, and over the next four months the best West Coast prospects for the May 2 Kentucky Derby will emerge from a series of races that culminate with the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby on April 4. There are graded stakes in January, February, and March that offer points toward a Derby berth based on the system now used by Churchill Downs, and with the depth of quality here, the races should be compelling, especially if they are anywhere close to the drama provided in last Saturday’s Los Alamitos Futurity.

“That was just Round One,” said Arnold Zetcher, the owner of Firing Line, eager to have another go at Dortmund.

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Dortmund will not run in January, according to Baffert, who said a race like the Grade 2, $150,000 Robert Lewis on Feb. 7 could be next. Simon Callaghan, who trains Firing Line, said his colt would get a freshening, and that he would ideally like to get one prep in the horse before the Santa Anita Derby.

That could mean awaiting the Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe on March 7, which Baffert has tentatively mentioned as a target for American Pharoah. Ocho Ocho Ocho also will not run until the San Felipe, according to his trainer, Jim Cassidy. And even if all these horses remain healthy over the next few months, opportunities out of town could beckon if the local races look like they are coming up tough.

“Thank God we’ve got Tex Sutton,” Baffert said, referring to the equine air transport company.

Texas Red could make his first start of 2015 in the Grade 2, $200,000 San Vicente on Feb. 1, according Keith Desormeaux, his trainer and co-owner.

“I’m tossing several options around,” Desormeaux said. “There’s a lot of money out there. At this point I’m thinking the San Vicente. I like the idea of starting off in a sprint and going from there.”

One potential downside of the seven-furlong San Vicente is that it is not a race in which a horse can earn points toward a Derby berth. The remaining races on Churchill Downs’s list in which a horse can earn points are all around two turns.

The first of the local races of 2015 that offers Derby points is the Grade 3, $100,000 Sham on Jan. 10, a race trainer Peter Miller is hoping to make with Calculator, who was scratched from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile the morning of the race with a foot bruise.

“The foot was fine, but then he got sick on me,” Miller said. “But we should be able to make the Sham.”

Acceptance, 3 for 3, all in races restricted to Cal-breds, is likely to remain statebred company for at least one more start, in the $250,000 California Cup Derby on Jan. 24, according to his breeder and co-owner, Bud Johnston.

Lord Nelson, who disappointed for Baffert in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and The Gomper, who unleashed a strong late kick to win his debut at Los Alamitos for trainer Ron Ellis, are worth following, as are Pioneerof the West (trained by Mark Casse) and Cyrus Alexander (Jerry Hollendorfer), who ran one-two in a two-turn maiden race at Del Mar last month.

Unraced newcomers of interest nearing debuts include Cozmic One (John Shirreffs), the first foal out of the great mare Zenyatta; The Man (Baffert), and Yiannis (John Sadler), a son of Midshipman who sold for $560,000 in March at the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Company venue following a breeze-up timed in 9.80 seconds.

The filly division, by contrast, is ripe for a newcomer or late developer to make a splash, since the best local runners so far were no match for invaders in the Chandelier, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and Starlet. Recent maiden winners Lady Lake (Jeff Mullins) and Lady Tapit (Sadler) are among those worth following leading up to the Grade 1, $400,000 Santa Anita Oaks on April 4.