Churchill Downs
Kentucky Derby handcapping chat with Marcus Hersh
| DRFDerby | Welcome to tonight's chat. We will be joined by Marcus Hersh shortly. Feel free to start sending in your questions! |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Joined now, in fact. |
| Joey | Do you anticipate a fast track on Derby day?If off who are main benefactors? |
| wmspt | post draw just killed Archx3 |
| Scott | I loved Archx3 until he got the rail.Does he still have a chance? |
| Joey | Where is DRF posted a transcript of all of the Derby Chats? |
| Scott | Who are ur top 5 throw outs? |
| Fred Reardon | Hi Marcus, I like your insights. If we could get your thoughts on the LA Derby and how those horses and jocks figure in the KD? Do you adjus |
| DRFDerby | DRF will post an archive of our chats tomorrow morning |
| Fred Reardon | t for a wet rack? |
| up2early | Is this thing going to work tonight? Last night didn't go well |
| Joey | Hello Marcus - will we see any of your insights on the closer look for any of the racees? |
| wmspt | track will be fine on derby day |
| James | What do you think about Master? On the board or not? |
| Sanjay Bhartia | MOH on board |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Joey - fast track Saturday? Forecast getting worse. Was 20% chance precip two days ago. Now 50% - scattered t-storms. |
| George Tierney | master of hounds, up the track |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @wmspt Post didn't kill Arch3X. Just maimed. Made me change pix. |
| NCTony | Soldat on off track W2W |
| George Tierney | 1 prep over synthetic??/ please |
| Vincent Maresco | Any thoughts on Mucho Macho Man? |
| Joey | thanks Marcus |
| George Tierney | soldat gets all in pocket over slop |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Scott: Top 5 tosses: Twinspired, Derby Kitten, Pants on Fire, Comma, Uncle Mo |
| George Tierney | love mucho macho man |
| NCTony | why does it Kill a horse to have rail..i think it's just bad luck and bad horses each race is statistically independent |
| George Tierney | sitting in his box with owners and going to the friday mucho party |
| DelMarDennis | Chances Uncle Mo gets scratched prior to the start? I'd say 50/50. |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @james: Master of H. not tossable, to me. Xcuse for BC. Dubai race was pretty nice. |
| George Tierney | 90-10 |
| Joey | Marcus - Describe how you think handicapping the Derby is so much different than other big races |
| Bill Stoffel | Why the toss on Uncle Mo? |
| Larry Terry | these post positions has me right back to the drawing board....i feel like its febuary |
| Sanjay Bhartia | Marcus- give any chance to Brilliant Speed or Midnight Interlude? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @NCTony - re Soldat; wet helps. Draw may help equally - he's outside other speed. |
| George Tierney | master is a toss, lost to a filly, ran 1 1/8 th in 158...please |
| NCTony | was my thoughts exactly |
| Frank | How much does he rail hurt AAA? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Vincent M: Mucho MM in my top realm. On edge. Like, don't love. Solid, has some stay. |
| cscinsurance1 | Good evening, Marcus. In the SA Derby, it appeared to me that Espinoza went to the whip on MI early and often. |
| cscinsurance1 | 24 strikes beginning around the far turn.It appeared excessive to me and I am wondering if I should view MI as an imp |
| Dan Waite | What do u think of Animal Kingdom i think he hits the board |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @NC Tony: Rail causes pressure lots of times; harder to turn off, relax, hit spots |
| cscinsurance1 | improving horse that might gain something from a tough race or a horse who might be a little low in the tank for a mile |
| James | Why is Gomez on Master? |
| Anthony Aiello | what do you think of st. johns river in the oaks |
| George Tierney | only if its wet |
| BillCorr_RES | Is there a possible War Emblem in this field?Could someone get on top and stay there? |
| cscinsurance1 | & a quarter |
| Don Soucy | Chances for one of the speeds, especially Shackleford to stay for a major piece? |
| George Tierney | cause they paid him to ride moh |
| wmspt | Brilliant and Midnight will be fine |
| wmspt | Brilliant and Midnight will be fine |
| Brian Peeples | shackleford at 12/1?? is there really that much hype going on around him or it one of those typical Battaglia wtf's? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @DelMarDen: Hard call. Nothing would surprise, right? |
| Larry Terry | master hounds is your war emblem |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | As for that last, it was RE Uncle Mo possible scratch |
| Scott | What is the pace gonna be? Hot? |
| George Tierney | mATER OF HOUNDS IS THE 18TH FINISHER |
| Larry Terry | im leaning towards macho man...but like master |
| Clocker | Marcus...Can Shackleford rate to the speed inside and hold on for the distance? He seems like he could be the improving horse in the field. |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @BillStoffel: As for Mo toss, he's one of the shorter prices. Timely Writer could be see as plus had Wood not happened. |
| Sanjay Bhartia | MOH is becoming the wiseguy horse...which is always a bad sign |
| Matt Fidler | Marcus, do deep closers have a chance to pass a ton of horses? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Sanjay: Neither Brilliant nor Midnight would be on trifecta tix. So you might wanna box them in exacta:) |
| NCTony | My thoughts on Archx3 is his running style actually can benefit from good rail trip and court knows the curcuit well I |
| George Tierney | master of hounds had one prep that was so slow, i coulda beat him |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Dan Waite: RE Animal Kingdom - he wound up being my top selection |
| George Tierney | mucho has a big chance and so does midnite |
| Larry Terry | i think AAA has a better post than the whole auxiliary gate |
| elvis | what is the weight for the derby?Who best to carry it? |
| Oliver Brown | George- did you see where the Holy Bull runner finished in MOH's 'slow prep' |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @James: Gomez on Master cuz jock needed horse, horse needed jock. Perfect! |
| Brian Peeples | i'm leaning towards Archarcharach, Mucho Macho Man, and Soldat |
| George Tierney | and one prep worked well for china visit and arazi |
| Larry Terry | at elvis ...pants on fire 126lbs |
| Jason Trotter | Master - only one race this year, never raced on dirt, and shipped - all a recipe for bad outcome! |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Anthony Aillo: St. Johns River gets my $ as Oaks key horse |
| Karen Martin | Dialed in, Mucho, Mo, Midnight my favorites |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @BillCorr_RES: Possible War Emblem? Soldat, if any. |
| elvis | thanks lt |
| NCTony | Animal Kingdom has never run on dirt, have you seen the works on dirt? |
| George Tierney | soldat if wet yes' |
| Larry Terry | at jason trotter...he runs in europe against pluck and frankel out front he may get pushed thru |
| Don Soucy | Before the draw, why was AAA getting so much more love than Nehro, who just flew by him after the wire? Somebody has to close |
| cscinsurance1 | Marcus, do you think Espinoza's ride on MI in SA D was a bit too much? |
| Karen Martin | will derby have the 10 cent super? |
| Oliver Brown | Ya Marcus! you picked the winner (Animal Kingdom) - are you dissapointed with draw? You see Albarado taking back like last or pressing like |
| Larry Terry | no ten cents |
| Scott | Santa Anita was over rated, best 2 scratched.I can't make a stance of any...can u? |
| Sanjay Bhartia | no super is $1 min |
| Jason Trotter | If not for the getting stuck in the fla derby, he would have all the right numbers to take it all the way! |
| wmspt | 1 dol super min |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Request: Keep comments to minimum. Flooded with questions right now. |
| DRFDerby | @ Karen - No, the minimum super for the Derby will be $1 |
| BillCorr_RES | Will Nehro really go off at 6-1?Does he have a shot? |
| George Tierney | pluck was so much better than animal kingdom, and i talked to barry irwin, who had no inclination to run pluck on dirt |
| Karen Martin | ok thanks |
| George Tierney | bet hes kicking himself now |
| DRFDerby | Thank for joining tonight's chat. We're here with DRF Handicapper Marcus Hersh, who likes Animal Kingdom in the Derby |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | As for pace: I'm seeing it as quick, not suicide. Guess fractions: 23.22, 46.47 for quarter and half |
| Julie | depressed about the one draw... :( |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Correct on no 10-cent super |
| NCTony | Stay Thirsty..if you throw his race with Blinkers out he does have a nice pattern coming into this any opinions on ST? |
| Sanjay Bhartia | Marcus- any thoughts on Daisy Devine in the Oaks? |
| Julie | what do we guess the power of borel wil bring twice the appeal down to? lol |
| andersondeals | Animal Kingdom is stop & go horse. SItting on a big race. |
| George Tierney | nio 10 cent super cause they got killed last year' |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Julie: Yes. Maybe 20-1. I give him a chance to get in top five, given inside draw. |
| Warren Clark | What runners do you think will step up in the slop, assuming the track turns up wet on Saturday? |
| Bruce Dutton | Second quarter will be well over 24 |
| AtlColt | Marcus: Why Twinspired a throwout--he is one of my best live longshots--have used him in his last two.. |
| wmspt | Animal Kingdom's jock dumped him for Soldat, what does that tell you? |
| andersondeals | Ak maneuvers like Afleet Alex |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Bill Corr: Nehro seemed more wise guy-ier last week. 8-1? 10-1? |
| Bruce Dutton | TWIN can Not win from rail |
| Larry Terry | will any of the horses out of the auxiliary gate hit the board .....that is the question |
| jaymz5150 | Marcus do you prefer WPS bets vertical exotics or rolling horozontal exotics |
| Bruce Dutton | Dialed In, Soldat, and Nehru |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @clocker: Don't like Shack's chances of rating behind horses. On the lead, he's pressed. |
| cscinsurance1 | @wmspt: it wouldn't be the 1st time a jock got off the winner for an also ran |
| John Catalano | Could Uncle Mo pull a 'Big Brown' from post 18? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @wmspt: Re Garcia to Soldat: It tells me A. Garcia is riding for his guy |
| Edward Popyak | Marcus do you look at pedigrees when handicapping the Derby? |
| Bruce Dutton | Hope Mo runs -- if He does He will Not be in top 10 and will be gasping the last 1/16 |
| George Tierney | uncle mo is skinny |
| AtlColt | Stay Thirsty simply hasnt run fast enough-no Beyer above 90 |
| George Tierney | looks not good] |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @andersondeals: Yes, maneuverability one reason I like Animal Kingdom. He's an athlete. |
| Justin Brownstein | Shackleford showed rating ability first off the bench this year which is uncommon in a speed horse. I think Romans played bias in Fla Derby |
| elvis | any horse with significant workouts at cd? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @John Catalano: He could, he could. What odds would you take to guess he will? |
| Bruce Dutton | You have about 15 great athletes -- break and running fairly clean are the big keys |
| cscinsurance1 | Marcus, your thoughts on MI & Esp's ride in SA. Anything left in the tank? |
| George Tierney | why ak...2 races at 2 2 at 3...nothing spectacuklar, and dirt first time |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Edward: I look at pedigrees, but they're not end-all, be-all. Individual 1st, ped second |
| John Catalano | 6 to 1!!! |
| Bruce Dutton | The West will Not hit the board |
| George Tierney | there are 2 horses bred to win this race...nehro and dialed in' |
| Michael Giorgio | bruce dutton sounds like a know it all.... |
| Karen Martin | who's the horse most likely to act up? like to bet on the feisty ones |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Justin: Shack could sit a bit from his draw. Not too much. |
| Bruce Dutton | Not 6-1 in a far cry -- more like 18-1 |
| Jason Trotter | Marcus, what do you make of the track conditions for the derby? |
| Matt Fidler | so does George Tierney |
| Mark Perrin | what do you think of Mucho Macho Man? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @elvis: didn't make CD trip this year; i tend mainly to trust myself, even if i don't really know what i'm seeing |
| Bruce Dutton | Feisty and sweating perhaps -- ugh |
| George Tierney | so do i what |
| Scott | Who r ur live longshots? |
| George Tierney | i like mmm and dialed in |
| Michael Giorgio | we are playing superfectas...who would you include if we keyed 5 horses? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @BruceDutton: They're not all athletic like that; horse can be fast, competent, not that athletic. |
| George Tierney | ive got futures on both |
| Bruce Dutton | Mo will have big probs getting out of gate |
| Justin Brownstein | Are 50 cent trifectas available for the derby? |
| AtlColt | This Derby has more simple throwouts than any in recent memory & now i can throw out two more due to draw: Soldat & Mo |
| DelMarDennis | Word is Soldat really appreciates the cooler weather in KY. He was 'washy' in the FLA Derby. I think he comes up BIG. |
| George Tierney | no |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Athletecism, lotsa stamima, 20-1 why I Animal Kingdom guy |
| George Tierney | friggin 1 |
| Sanjay Bhartia | any thoughts on Brilliant Speed's dirt races initially being late blooming as opposed to inability to handle? |
| John Huber | Looks like exotics will payoff like a slot machine... |
| Bruce Dutton | Soldat did Not need a good draw |
| Justin Brownstein | Really? There were 50c last year??? |
| DRFDerby | @Justin - no, no 50-cent Tri's or dime supers for the Derby |
| George Tierney | yes |
| cscinsurance1 | I agree sanjay |
| George Tierney | they got hammered |
| Justin Brownstein | ouch |
| Don Soucy | Shack faced tons of speed horses at FL, even though speed favoring track he was the only one who stayed |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @AtlColt: I started throwing out, too. Suddenly, I had no horses left to consider! |
| George Tierney | they got beat up so bad on the breeders cup with those bets |
| AtlColt | So Im using only MMM, Dialed and Animal Kingdom in win position on tri...Santiva and Twinspires my live longshots |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Sanjay: Brilliant Speed might just be a better horse now than last year; or he hates dirt. Yeah. |
| John Catalano | Does any one else besides me think that Uncle Mo is a lock? |
| Karen Martin | george- I won the breeder's on those bets |
| elvis | any concerns about AK transition to dirt? |
| George Tierney | why santiva |
| Justin Brownstein | I was locked in on ARCH until that post draw today. Sad to see such bad luck for Court/Jinks. Almost auto toss |
| Bruce Dutton | UNCLE MO IS A LOCK FOR A LOSS or NO START |
| George Tierney | karen i hammered the breeders cup with those bets] |
| George Tierney | all 4 |
| George Tierney | 260 win on blame |
| George Tierney | ex tri and super |
| James | what about 50 cent pick 4,5,6? |
| jeffhasselman | Can AAA be first since Ferdinand in 86? Shoe was 54 and Court is young at 50. Slop may help. |
| Karen Martin | like Hank? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @John: Not even Repole seems to lock Uncle. Didn't he say exacta with Mo and SThirsty? Not win? |
| John Huber | lol...chalk bettor |
| Sanjay Bhartia | Dynaformers can do dirt and definitely distance...i love the steady improvement...plus he will like the wet |
| Russ | don't underestimate MO |
| Anthony Aiello | who's your top 3 for the oaks ? |
| Don Soucy | Any reason to think synthetic horses will show up? Paddy O'Prado ran well after working like a monster - but who else? |
| BettorCheckThis | there are 50 cent trifectas..drf is giving false info on that |
| Bruce Dutton | Tell us Your losses GT |
| John Catalano | Remember, I told ya so!!!! |
| andersondeals | AK wo ar CD was pretty impressive |
| Michael Giorgio | Hey, we have two 'experts'...Tierney and Dutton...go with whatever they do!!! |
| George Tierney | arch actually isnt in that bad of a spot, since he will drop back and 5 horses to his outside want the lead |
| Bruce Dutton | Mo is a dieing qual -- fact -- no underestimation by anyone |
| Matt Fidler | lol |
| BettorCheckThis | there are 50 sent pick 3 s and 4 s |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @elvis: Of course concerns about AK's transition to dirt. That's the guess-work for which you get bigger odds. |
| John Huber | lol |
| Russ | glad you know it all |
| George Tierney | hey mike who you like' |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | we need a firm answer on 50-cent tris. will send email. |
| Larry Terry | top 5 as of rite now....MMM, dialed in, master, soldat, animal kingdom |
| Bruce Dutton | Three of the five horses on the outside WILL NOT AND CAN NOT GET THE LEAD |
| John Gray | I've heard absolutely no one talk about Master of Hounds.No one. |
| Karen Martin | thoughts on Decisive moment? |
| Michael Giorgio | I like whoever you like! Can't miss! |
| Larry Terry | i likey master |
| George Tierney | toss |
| Bruce Dutton | Get rid of MASTER for sure |
| BettorCheckThis | i love the uncle mo fan club..there is no way you can follow this game daily and think uncle mo has a shot in this race |
| Clocker | Decisive Moment...toss for me |
| Sanjay Bhartia | John the whole first part was on MOH |
| Justin Brownstein | I disagree George. I compare Arch to Lookin at Lucky. I think at the 1 you have to go either dead last or to the lead. I dont think AAA |
| BettorCheckThis | not a sprint |
| John Huber | lol...Mike |
| Anonymous | Do you think the race will setup for a speed horse, horse that rates, or big closer? |
| Jason Trotter | Master is a toss |
| John Gray | I missed the first part, I'll rewind... |
| AtlColt | I think Brilliant Speed is an easy throwout (See Stately Victor last year). One lucky win does not a derby winner make! |
| Scott | Who is the Rodney dnagerfield horse this year? |
| George Tierney | well ill be in the mmm box so i gotta play him, but i got a future on dialed in at 10-1\\ |
| Michael Giorgio | You heard him, Larry, Tierney said 'toss'....so TOSS!!! |
| Frank | No one showed up in FL Derby, are you taking Dialed In seriously? |
| John Huber | I say Maker gets his first derby horse...but hes a friend |
| BettorCheckThis | this is actually one of the easier derbys to handicap |
| Sanjay Bhartia | Atl- I take a different approach but I understand why people want to toss him |
| Josh Atkinson | what do u think of twice the appeal? good post and borel on top. |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @anon: I'm more with off the pace; I see six in top tier, and think they'll be attacking from half-mile onward |
| BettorCheckThis | easy throwouts in this race and it wont pay huge like everyone is thinking... |
| Bruce Dutton | Horses did run in the FL Derby and the best horse at Churchill happened to get the W |
| Larry Terry | bettorckthis ...whos ur pic |
| DRFDerby | We're chatting with Marcus Hersh. In case you're wondering, free Derby PPs will be posted on DRF.com later tonight |
| Shaman Krauss | Albarado stepped on face by mount prior to race 3 churchill today andwill take off Oaks mount but still ride 'animal' in th Der |
| Tyrone | A sure bet against is Uncle Mo.... |
| George Tierney | mike will give us the winner since hes mr funny' |
| John Gray | Twice the Appeal is a claimer. At least the rest of these are good allowance horses. |
| Scott | Bettorcheckthis: lets's hear it then... |
| Bruce Dutton | Not a good year for Borel and His horse can Not lag and get a shot up the rail |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Frank: I was taking Dialed In seriously for 12 hours. Could see either way. Light work pattern since Fla Derby. Hmmm |
| Michael Giorgio | Yup! The winner is whoever Tierney and Dutton pick...didn't I already say that? |
| JKarbo214 | Thoughts on Midnight Interlude? |
| Shaman Krauss | Any thoughts about Albarado's status? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @John Gray: Good for a snicker, the allowance horses remark |
| wmspt | Don't sleep on Nehro |
| BettorCheckThis | lol at light work pattern on dialed in and you write for the form? cmon now |
| DelMarDennis | Marcus, how do you think MB did making the ML? Big discrepancy between he and Watch on Soldat. 12/20-1. |
| Sanjay Bhartia | I take it those rumors about DI taking a bad step yesterday were simply untrue? |
| Josh Atkinson | I like how baffert talks about midnight interlude |
| Anonymous | albardo has a laceration...will be good to go |
| jeffhasselman | Who gets to the 1st turn 1st given Shack's PP? |
| James | BETTORCHECKTHIS: PLEASE ENLIGHTEN US ON YOUR EASY ANALYSIS |
| Jeffrey | Do you suspect that Uncle Mo was subjected to pin-firing based on circumstantial evidence |
| Justin Brownstein | Trifecta .50 cent is available on derby day |
| Clocker | first turn to comma to the top |
| Scott | Thank you James |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @jeff; Comma to the Top gets to the first turn first, IMO |
| BettorCheckThis | this is biggest lock in derby history..because the field is the weakest ever adn there isnt any horse other than dialed |
| andersondeals | Decisive Moment too the lead , Comma breathing down his neck |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Decisive Moment, Comma, Pants on Fire -- three paces -- alld drawn right next to each other. Go! |
| JKarbo214 | @Justin does that mean it will be offered for the derby though or just during other races during the day? |
| BettorCheckThis | comma to the top from first to last? anyone wanna bet that? |
| Larry Terry | master to the lead |
| Josh Atkinson | ill take that |
| AtlColt | Marcus--not much talk about Santiva and he has a win on the track--your thoughts? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Jeffrey: Yes, fotos say Mo pinfired at some point. So? |
| George Tierney | this isnt a hard derby to figure out the pace scenario |
| andersondeals | Shack could be strung wide |
| Bruce Dutton | Write something serious with backup Hersh |
| Josh Atkinson | along with decisive moment |
| John Huber | Another favorite goes down in the derby.. |
| Jeffrey | What's your opinion on Uncle Mo's owner (Repole) saying he'll manipulate the pools if UM isn't the favorite.Is U'mo a no-bet? |
| wmspt | Better check this, no horse out of Stom Cat , ever won the Derby ! |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Sanjay: There are always, always, always rumors. Sometimes they're true |
| John Gray | Comma to the Top will be breathing fire at the half pole |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | Any thoughts on Master of the Hounds |
| Clocker | I would love to see Repole throw his money in the window on Mo |
| Sanjay Bhartia | .50 tri on derby day? that isn't the norm.. |
| JKarbo214 | I heard a rumor that Uncle Mo has a bone fracture and has actually had one for a long while now |
| Warren Clark | I thought this was supposed to be a question and answer session with a professional handicapper. DidI miss the memo somewhere? |
| Bruce Dutton | No horse out of Secretary ever won the KD |
| Jeffrey | Same here Clocker |
| Justin Brownstein | they had 50 cent last year |
| George Tierney | master of the hounds should be running at palm beach kennel club' |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Warren: Is that your question? |
| Matt Fidler | good point Warren |
| Michael Giorgio | Which |
| Bruce Dutton | MO needs a covering excuse |
| Anonymous | no horse with 3 legs ever won the derby |
| BettorCheckThis | yea you missed the info...hersch is far from professional handicapperhe is just a writer |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | And what of the rumors everywhere that Mo will scratch |
| Sanjay Bhartia | Yeah Marcus for sure. Maybe you heard it? I think Peck was eluding to it in yesterday's chat?? |
| John Catalano | Do you think that Repole is an idiot??? He knows how good Mo is!!! |
| Larry Terry | mo scratching makes sense |
| Scott | I'm still waiting to hear bettorcheckthis locks? |
| Bruce Dutton | Does Hersh have opinions that He bets |
| D'Funnybone | This set-up for the KD chats this year is horrendous...why the change in formats? |
| Larry Terry | dialed in he stated |
| John Gray | I heard a rumor that most rumors aren't true. |
| Jeffrey | Wow, tough crowd ;-) Do you expect Mr. Hersch to handicap like God and answer 50 questions-per-minute |
| Mark Perrin | Marcus, so who is your selection? Maybe an exacta? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | If you follow every rumor, don't bother handicapping. The answers are supposed to be in the pps. |
| Gran Duque | Marcus: What do you think about ArchArchArch from PP.1? |
| Michael Giorgio | yeah, bettercheckthis what are the locks?? |
| BettorCheckThis | jon cataloano is a wiseghuy..lol at anyone liking uncle mo at any point to win any triple crown race..he a miler at bes |
| Justin Brownstein | Welsch said Mo looked light today... Not good signs |
| Don Soucy | wmspt - but not having Bluegrass Cat 2nd cost me a fortune - seriously. They can get the distance |
| Jeanne Liddy | mo isn't a distance horse... |
| JKarbo214 | I heard it from someone fairly reliable close to the horse racing field, only reason I brought it up |
| Bruce Dutton | No but to have one quality answer |
| BettorCheckThis | i have had the locks all spring |
| Jay Goldtrap | This is not a chat, it's a free for all. |
| Gran Duque | I agree with D'Funnybone comments |
| BettorCheckThis | MO IS A SPRINTER FOLKS |
| Jeffrey | Some answers aren't in the PP's correct...like figuring out things by visual observation such as pre-race behavior |
| Sanjay Bhartia | some rumors are obviously false but many are true...in the sporting world anyways |
| wmspt | I had bluegrass to win |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Pix: Animal Kingdom, Soldat, Arch3X, Twice the Appeal |
| Jeanne Liddy | BETTTORCHECKTHIS: you're right!!! |
| BettorCheckThis | lol at soldat |
| Bruce Dutton | Mo is another Smarty Jones |
| Karen Martin | just to be clear- if theres a 50 cent tri and I do a tri key one horse over 4, would it then be 6 bucks? |
| Jeffrey | Animal Kingdom! Great selection |
| BettorCheckThis | war front horse will never hit board in derby |
| Danell Dvorak | How to compare turf/syn to dirt form when it's wet, muddy, sloppy.Thanks to Warren too. |
| Josh Atkinson | ArchX3 will not run better than lookin at lucky did last year |
| BettorCheckThis | animal kingdom is vying for last place in my book |
| Mark Perrin | Thanks Marcus. I like but Twice. I am putting MMM with those instead. |
| Jeffrey | I'm a huge fan of Animal Kingdom and think he gets the distance |
| Justin Brownstein | Wow Hersh you are going to stick with AAA? No 1 post has hit the board since 1988. AAA is my favorite yet toss |
| Jeanne Liddy | pix: soldat....archarcharch...master of hounds...animal kingdom...archarcharch...maybe muchmachoman |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Jeffrey: Yes, you have to look at horses, too; but know beforehand what you might be seeing |
| Gran Duque | Josh, Lookin at Lucky was the target, Arch3x is not.... |
| Bruce Dutton | Generally go with Mindshaft and Distorted Humor |
| John Gray | Who thinks Arch Arch Arch's best shot is to pull a Ferdinand and just drop all the way back and come with a big run? |
| Jeffrey | Good point. |
| Jeanne Liddy | maybe an off track- favors the turf |
| Thomas Foynes | i'll putt aaa in third |
| Josh Atkinson | a target? he was victim of the 1 hole |
| John Catalano | Yea Mo is a sprinter, and will sprint the 1 1/4 in 2 minutes flat if not faster!!! |
| Jeanne Liddy | favors the usual turf pedigrees/runners |
| Justin Brownstein | Only way John |
| Clocker | Picks: Animal Kingdom, Nehro, Shackleford, Dialed In |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | I think either Arch3X or Nehro will run well; not both |
| BettorCheckThis | lol at wiseguy jon catalona |
| JKarbo214 | what does everyone think about midnight interlude? he's my pick to take this |
| Jeffrey | I don't think any modern horse will get close to 2 minutes, especially this crop |
| BettorCheckThis | just throwing money out the window |
| Bruce Dutton | How big a run after Your 20 lengths behind and can not get around the pack --silly |
| Jeanne Liddy | what about master of hounds for a longshot? |
| Kevan Smotherman | Marcus your thoughts on a wet track and who benifits? |
| John Gray | I like Midnight Interlude. |
| BettorCheckThis | he was chaced home in the weakest juvinle in histoiry by a sprinter |
| Scott | Dialed in, arch3, santiva. Take 2 aspirin call me in the mornin' |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | agree with jeffrey |
| Thomas Foynes | i had high hopes for toby now i'm all shot out |
| Jeanne Liddy | turf benefits offtrack |
| Jeffrey | The fastest time in the last 4 years is 2:01 4/5ths |
| Gran Duque | He was coming from a horrible inside trip in the SA Derby and the track during the Derby was a mess, sloppy track, which is not expected thi |
| DRFDerby | Update - there WILL be 50-cent pick 3s offered for the Derby. The super will be a $1 minimum. |
| John Gray | Ferdinand wasn't 20 lengths out of it. |
| Gran Duque | this year |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Jkarbo: Midnight Interlude mystery horse. Improving? Yes. But how good??? |
| Bradley Bonar | midnight interlude doesn't have enough races... |
| Jim Barrick | Why no DRF pp's available? The Ragozin Sheets are already out for Derby Day. |
| Bruce Dutton | Is 203-2 close to 200 or just some 20 lengths behind |
| D'Funnybone | Is this actually a 'Chat' or is it just everyone throwing an opinion out there? Nothing being discussed or evaluated... |
| BettorCheckThis | yes ferdinand was JOhn |
| Jeanne Liddy | they like dialed in for the 4th post |
| cscinsurance1 | MI was used pretty good in SA derby, imo |
| Justin Brownstein | there are .50 p3, p4,p5 and .50 trifectas. 1 dollar supers |
| BettorCheckThis | he was dead last bny 20 |
| Bradley Bonar | Dialed In has the best POST of any true ontender |
| Scott | Throw out all the western horses |
| Jeanne Liddy | mo had a chip in his ankle in florida |
| Bruce Dutton | So FUNNYBONE enlighten us all |
| Don Soucy | 'either AAA or Nehro will run well, but not both' - please explain that logic? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Dfunnybone: Exactly. We need the questions to go through a moderator! |
| Jeanne Liddy | and was seen at bel working----just trotting whole track with a pony |
| JKarbo214 | jeanne, that is what I heard! |
| BettorCheckThis | biggest lock in derby history on saturday Dialed in folks have a wonderful weak |
| Jeanne Liddy | i was there |
| Anthony Aiello | who are your top 3 in the oaks ? |
| Bruce Dutton | ALLWESTERN HORSES return without big monies |
| Larry Terry | i agree...live and let learn |
| Jeffrey | Marcus, I've noticed that modern thoroughbreds (esp. males) have suffered massive performance degradation.What do you think is the cause |
| BettorCheckThis | you can follow me on twiitter i give out bigtime picks that are not favs |
| Thomas Foynes | @ funnybone: this is where the odds come from ; the betting public |
| Justin Brownstein | I actually like this style. The old chat was slow and boring. At least now people can chat while you answer questions |
| Jeanne Liddy | pony rider held his head the whole time |
| Bradley Bonar | Well I like DIALED IN to get a big piece |
| Kevan Smotherman | Marcus wet track pics? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @don: Just my opinion bout the two Ark Derbies; Nehro galloped out way in front; Arch 3x less chance to regress? |
| cscinsurance1 | @jeffry no more steroids |
| jeffhasselman | Check out derbyridersup.blogspot.com |
| Jeanne Liddy | gonna be longshots on the offtrack |
| BettorCheckThis | follow me on twitter if you want real winners and picks for horse racing...i promise i will deliver the goods for free |
| Michael Giorgio | OK, I'm out...Bettorcheckthis just gave all of us the winner...Dialed In.... |
| Bradley Bonar | I like mucho macho man, And I think you are going to see some from the middle with speed hold on for a share |
| JKarbo214 | jeane that would explain his poor performance in the wood |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @justin: yeah, I can see the 'chatting part.' But this is chaotic - and making my neck and wrists hurt |
| Jeanne Liddy | and there are some turf/long pedigrees...not your usual franchise trainers |
| JKarbo214 | what is the weather report for saturday? |
| Jeanne Liddy | yup |
| Scott | Well give us ur top 3 then |
| Jeanne Liddy | i've seen most of these guys |
| Bruce Dutton | Breeding today is all about SPEED that is the reason for results today |
| Justin Brownstein | lol |
| Jeffrey | Cs, that is one possible reason.I wonder if in-breeding and breeding for precocity over stamina is a cause too |
| Josh Atkinson | 20% chance of thunderstorms |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | no steroids and flat shoes made a big dif in the first breeders cup... may be hounds will surprise.. has the breeding |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @bettorcheck will deliver the goods. Keep that in mind. |
| Jeffrey | Bruce, ditto |
| JKarbo214 | jeanne who do you like for saturday? |
| Jeffrey | Kathie, interesting point.... |
| Bradley Bonar | Pantsonfire is a sleeper |
| wmspt | oh no, not another late scratch? |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | thanks |
| Ivan Onna | hi from Puerto Rico |
| Bruce Dutton | Only Europe has current STAMINA |
| Jeanne Liddy | like the following: master of hounds, animal kingdom, archx3, nehro....and much macho man |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Hey - a Pants on Fire reference. That's one. Any more? |
| andersondeals | Marcus: your opinion on Graham Motion? |
| BettorCheckThis | i know i will marcus ...dnt worry bout that bud |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | agreed |
| D'Funnybone | Marcus, you have my sympathies here tonight...This shouldn't be billed as a 'Chat', but as 'Chaos'! |
| Bradley Bonar | Please, there is alot of stamina in this race |
| Thomas Foynes | this would be a great place to start rummors |
| Jeanne Liddy | bruce, not true...people don't know how to train for distance anymore. |
| Clocker | Marcus: Besides AK (agree with you), who else can get the distance still rolling? Seems like the race comes down to distance limitations. |
| Jeanne Liddy | it just takes more thought |
| AtlColt | Marcus/anyone...any Santiva thoughts? He has a win at Churchill..he seems to be forgotten by all tonight. |
| Jeffrey | I went through every DRF stakes race and noticed that 10F+ races (except turf) are almost extinct |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Graham Motion is a good person |
| Jeanne Liddy | my pet peeve |
| Jeanne Liddy | anyone can do a 6f race.. |
| Jeanne Liddy | graham is a good guy |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | bradley...stamina which |
| Ivan Onna | Marcus what about Midnight Interlude? |
| JKarbo214 | jeanne, who do you like? |
| Bradley Bonar | Motion has a live horse |
| Jeanne Liddy | not here in ny. lotsa distance |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | And he can train horses - Graham Motion, that is. |
| Jeanne Liddy | that's why we do better elsewhere |
| Bradley Bonar | MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE doesn't have enough seasoning |
| Jeanne Liddy | yea- graham is good |
| Jeanne Liddy | ny |
| Matt Fidler | Beyer wrote a nice piece on Motion |
| Scott | Alt colt, I like him too (santiva) |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @altcolt: I have had a Santiva thought or two. Using bottom of trifecta. |
| Jeanne Liddy | i'm in that circuit |
| Ivan Onna | no world beaters in this Derby |
| Jeanne Liddy | but have been to fl, del, ma |
| Bradley Bonar | no way. has been in small fields, no way he runs in this race with anything but a small chance to hit the bottom of exotics |
| Bruce Dutton | If there is STAMINA then what horse is the likely Triple Crown Winner -- 0.0000000001 chance with this bunch |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | Don't think the best trainer in the world can make a 3yo go a mile and a quarter |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Ivan: I'm tossing all SoCals, including Midnight |
| Jeanne Liddy | yea- santiva is a longshot for an exotic |
| JKarbo214 | I'm in ny too, spend my summers at saratoga |
| Jeffrey | We need 10F and 12F races to be common place and stop creating incentives for breeding precocious speedsters that fade like Uncle Mo |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | unless he's bred for it |
| Jeanne Liddy | nope. there are various walls |
| Bradley Bonar | triple crown winner doesn't mean stamina.... |
| DRFDerby | Thank for joining tonight's chat. Marcus likes Animal Kingdom , Soldat, Arch3X, and Twice the Appeal |
| Jeanne Liddy | for that distance. |
| Maxwell Kagan | I'm so upset about Archx3 gettin the 1 post ...major bummer |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Uncle Mo got 8.5fs pretty, pretty fast! |
| Jeanne Liddy | go to equinieline and check the pedigrees for the CD and dosages |
| Bradley Bonar | what if the same horse hits the ticket in every race??? |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | it means soundness too |
| Bruce Dutton | Hotels are expensive in Saratoga so leaves little for betting |
| Bradley Bonar | Please think a little |
| Clocker | Marcus: Besides AK (agree with you), who else can get the distance still rolling? Seems like the race comes down to distance. |
| DelMarDennis | Thoughts on the Oaks? Joyful Victory looms large. She'll make 5/2 look like an early Christmas gift. |
| Jeffrey | 8.5F's isn't very far...Rachel got 8.5F extremely fast too, but went 10F in a shade under 2:05 |
| Mark Perrin | MMM w/ AK, AAA, DI, S'DAT |
| JKarbo214 | bruce you would complain about that |
| Bradley Bonar | One of the SYNTHETIC HORSES is going to hit the ticket at a big price!!! |
| Jeffrey | Too many 8.5 F races and not enough true tests of a horse's stamina |
| Jeanne Liddy | clocker- arch3x is distance. |
| Jeffrey | Agree? |
| Gran Duque | 'The reports of Derby death for horses breaking from the 1-hole have been greatly exaggerated.' |
| John Huber | LOL...JK |
| Bradley Bonar | play a 3 with 8 oaks derby double |
| Jeanne Liddy | and nehro. and master of hounds..... |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | agree with clocker... ak and hounds only ones with legit breeding to get the distance |
| Bruce Dutton | Is 8-5 f ANYWAY near 1 and 1/4 miles-- He was so gasses He couldn't even look right to see the two flying by |
| Jeffrey | Marcus, why don't we get actual footage of the horses workouts??We only get the clocker's assessment |
| Clocker | Jeanne...Arch is distance...but also behind a wall of horses |
| Jeffrey | Not the raw footage |
| Bradley Bonar | ARCHARCHARCH is training very well and has all the breeding to make it 1 1/4 |
| AtlColt | Picks: Mucho Macho, Dialed In, Animal Kingdom and Santiva--good luck to all. |
| Jeanne Liddy | that's true... |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | Nehro bred 7.5 and 7.5 top and bottom |
| Bradley Bonar | but the rail is so bad |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Jeffrey: I was looking for work vids too??? |
| Jeanne Liddy | you have to have luck in the derby....and we're dealing with an off track, too |
| Jeffrey | Nehro is the hype-horse. |
| Jeanne Liddy | what do you guys think about pants on fire for a real longshot or super |
| Bradley Bonar | Sntiva?? What excuse will he use this time...Horse is not a winner |
| Bruce Dutton | WHATK POST DOES Arch HAVE????????????????????????? |
| D'Funnybone | Distance limitations...They will all go a mile & a quarter, just have to guess who will get there first... |
| JKarbo214 | I don't think rosie can get pantsonfire up |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @kathieroller: Mineshaft as sire = tough read for me. Big Afleet (damsire) fan |
| Bradley Bonar | Nehro had a perfect trip in the ARK DERBY....ARCHARCHARCH was 5 wide when he closed to win |
| Bradley Bonar | 1 |
| John Huber | 1 post |
| wmspt | the winning post |
| Thomas Foynes | I'm going to save this entire chat , re-read it, and weed out all the BS. gigitty. |
| Bradley Bonar | I love ARCHARCHARCH |
| Jeanne Liddy | bye |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @JeanneLiddy: If you can afford, gotta hit 'all' either in 3rd or 4th super hole this year |
| Bruce Dutton | My Doberman would also go a mile and a quarter -- but Not hit the board |
| jeffhasselman | How does Dialed In compare in size to Ice Box (similar setup owner/trainer and even race) |
| Bradley Bonar | AND JOHN COURT was on fire today |
| Ivan Onna | which horses you think got the best draw? |
| Jeffrey | Bradley likes McDonalds? |
| Jeanne Liddy | go to pedegree query...free search. you can research the pedigrees and check the dosages. |
| DRFDerby | @Thomas - the transcript of this chat will be up in the morning |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @thomas: You're going to re-read this? Ha-ha. |
| Justin Brownstein | Alright Hersh rank the following from your favorite to least Mucho vs Shack vs Pants vs Dialed in vs Soldat |
| Jeanne Liddy | it'll help with the distance |
| Jeffrey | lol at Marcus |
| D'Funnybone | ANYBODY heard from Ice Box since last May? |
| Scott | Everyone also said nobody could win from 20, big brown proved that wrong |
| Bruce Dutton | What horse is NO. 8 and did He get a good draw is the answers |
| John Huber | Love J Court win hes on a long shot |
| Thomas Foynes | hey this is the betting public right? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @jeffhassleman: Dialed In looks bigger on the teevee than he reall is, apparently |
| Stephen | Marcus: Which prep race do you think was the best and toughest? |
| John Catalano | Mo wins by open lenghts in 8.5fs, so for another furlong & 1/2 whats the big deal? |
| Jeanne Liddy | love court- he SO deserves to win |
| Ivan Onna | Big Brown was a freak |
| Justin Brownstein | Bradley you did see the draw today right? AAA drew the rail |
| Don Soucy | Court has wanted a Derby mount his entire career.Then he draws the 1 hole |
| jeffhasselman | Bradley -- I am with you on AAA...so many trends are falling by the wayside...he ran much further than Nehro |
| Sanjay Bhartia | a freak on drugs |
| Bradley Bonar | Best PREP RACE was the ARK DERBY |
| Thomas Foynes | i could drop a few rumor bombs and skew the odds in my favor |
| Josh Atkinson | big brown was trained by dutrow = doped up |
| Bruce Dutton | Big Brown was a flash and will NOT BE A VERY GOOD OR EVEN GOOD SIRE |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @justin: Soldat, Mucho, Dialed, Shack, Pants |
| D'Funnybone | Post position is the most over-rated factor of any Kentucky derby |
| Jeffrey | John, that's the same question you should ask of Rachel Alexandra when she got mowed down by an obscure optional claimer |
| Jeanne Liddy | i liked the ark derby |
| Clocker | Justin....Dialed In, Shack, Mucho, Soldat, Pants for me |
| Justin Brownstein | thanks |
| Anthony Aiello | any thoughts about the oaks |
| Bradley Bonar | FLORIDA DERBY only 2 showed up..SHACKELFORD and DIALED IN |
| Bradley Bonar | And the final time was slow |
| Jeanne Liddy | la derby a fluke with mucho losing a shoe in the gate |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Thomas Foynes: Rumors? Like GI infections? |
| Jeffrey | Uncle Mo (before his pin-firing or whatever) was a very speedy and precocious 2 year old, but can't get 10F |
| Bradley Bonar | the last fraction was super slow |
| Josh Atkinson | zazu in the oaks |
| Jeanne Liddy | i agree bradley |
| Ivan Onna | Dialed In = better one turn horse |
| Jeffrey | Zazu will be overbet |
| Maxwell Kagan | I think you may see Shackleford and Soldat duel in the stretch with the closers left with too much to do |
| D'Funnybone | Big Brown a Flash? I thought intelligent horsemen & women were involved in this chat... |
| Bradley Bonar | EVERY BET THE 3 IN THE OAKS! |
| Thomas Foynes | oh thats a good one marcus |
| Bruce Dutton | Hersh -- You finally came up with the top three for Justin |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | does anyone think racing experience and tactics in a 20 horse race has any bearing... especially when a big and rare field here is 10-12 |
| Josh Atkinson | @ Ivan, i am afraid of that possible fact |
| Jeanne Liddy | but remember, all....distance horses don't blaze fast fractions..they pace and have gas at the end when no one else does |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Ivan: Not sure. Not sure. Not sure |
| Thomas Foynes | i can run with it |
| Justin Brownstein | You guys don't realize the Florida Derby was ran over a really weird track. I live down here in FLA and it was SUPER hot |
| Jeanne Liddy | lilacs and lace in the oaks! |
| Jeanne Liddy | she was impressive! |
| Jeffrey | Jeanne is right. |
| Bradley Bonar | I LIVE IN FLORIDA TOO |
| Jeanne Liddy | new barn and trainer... |
| Jeffrey | Distance horses are able to conserve their speed and run within themselves |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Justin: The Fla Derby DID seem weird. |
| Thomas Foynes | what about that horse with the cracked hoof? |
| Bruce Dutton | Big Brown has intelligence but Not good genes -- breeders do Not artifically breed |
| Scott | Marcus, can you give us ur Oaks picks?Thanks |
| Jeanne Liddy | good odds, too |
| Stephen | Justin:didn't you think the Fla Derby time was slow? |
| Bradley Bonar | look who beat her easy beofre she won at KEENELAND |
| John Huber | I say Nehro is the winner..hope he goes off at 15-1 |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Jeanne: Don't like Lilacs in Oaks. Synth, synth, synth |
| Michael Pollard | What do you think about Comma to the top besides the always mentioned distance questions? |
| Bradley Bonar | LILACS WILL GET BEAT |
| Jeanne Liddy | yea..but she was in poor shape at that other barn |
| Ivan Onna | Nehro = 7-1..tops |
| Jeanne Liddy | she's peaking at the right time |
| Bradley Bonar | LILAC and LACE is all synthetic |
| Justin Brownstein | Yes it was slow but a lot of the horses over heat. The track was playing funny. I think they all tired out |
| Bruce Dutton | Hehro is a great choice |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Scott: Don't have Oaks pix yet. Keying St. Johns River, but wide draw could make be pull back. A little. |
| Jeanne Liddy | her coat was even rough in cali |
| foryourhandicap | I like santiva at a price. Has a win at the track and it was impressive. Ignore last cuz bad trip. |
| Thomas Foynes | i heard nakatani was getting fat |
| Bradley Bonar | The 3 is your OAKS WINNER |
| andersondeals | Marcus: Why did Catalano lose AK? |
| Bradley Bonar | BOOK IT AND LOCK IT |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Thomas: Keep em comin, man! |
| Dug-A-B | On a sloppy track, who should we pick for the Derby? |
| jeffhasselman | Why Nehro from 19 vs AAA at 1? |
| Clocker | All the prep races were slow. Distance pedigree and best trip big this year, like any year. Just more important this year because of field |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Anderson: Animal Kingdom moved bcause Team Valor put all with Motion |
| Don Soucy | I don't see how Soldat can get a good trip.3 of the speeds would have to not break.3-4 wide throughout |
| D'Funnybone | Had Kent D. not stiffed BB in the Belmont, Mr. Dutton, you'd be commiting blasphemy! |
| Jeanne Liddy | pick a distance horse with turf influence....and liking slop/off track |
| Bruce Dutton | IS NAKATANI FROM THE WEST? -- dau |
| Matt Fidler | Marcus - you having fun yet? |
| jeffhasselman | I'll take AAA over Nehro on a side bet |
| Sanjay Bhartia | Marcus- any thoughts on Daisy Devine in the Oaks? |
| Justin Brownstein | Honestly I think anyone who puts there money on AAA is crazy. He was my top pick but that post is disastrous |
| Jeanne Liddy | yea, nakatini is from cali |
| JKarbo214 | jeanne like who? |
| DelMarDennis | St. John's River? You're going to need some St. John's Wart after that. You're gonna be awfully sad. :( |
| Jeanne Liddy | i feel sorry for court |
| Thomas Foynes | i heard west coast breds are gonna take it this year |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @DonSoucy: Think Soldat will stay three wide and in clear just behind busters. If its wet, he goes. |
| Bruce Dutton | Recall for me please on the Kent comment |
| Bradley Bonar | DIALED IN is THE DERBY WINNER |
| Clocker | Agree Justin...turned me off AAA too |
| Jeffrey | Post 1 is going to get flung towards the rail and will have no chance |
| Bradley Bonar | Great Post, race sets up well for him |
| Stephen | Justin: so you agree that the Arch 3x prep was the best? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Sanjay: Daisy Devine just keeps on coming. Not 30-1, as on morning-line, however. |
| Jeffrey | Arch Arch Arch is as dead as Uncle Mo |
| John Huber | 1 post...tuf spot Jeff |
| Maxwell Kagan | Animal Kingdom is the new 'wise guy' horse this week. |
| Jeanne Liddy | i'd like to see a little guy get it. cathy has paid her dues- she works hard (mucho macho) and court/owner: for arch x3 |
| Bradley Bonar | And ZITO had him race against OLDER, just a brick of a horse |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Hey, @Bradley Bonar just gave us the winner. Let's get down! |
| Jeffrey | Post 1 is especially tough on a horse like AAA |
| Jeanne Liddy | i'm so sick of baffert and pletcher |
| DRFDerby | We're chatting with Marcus Hersh until 8 tonight. He likes Animal Kingdom, Soldat, Arch3X, and Twice the Appeal |
| foryourhandicap | I wouldn't let post get me off AAA. Makes me like it more as I will be getting better value. |
| DRFDerby | And he's tossing Twinspired, Derby Kitten, Pants on Fire, Comma, Uncle Mo |
| Jeanne Liddy | they should win with 200 horses around multi tracks |
| Jeffrey | AAA doesn't have the excellent turn of foot to get out of trouble |
| Justin Brownstein | I think he ran awesome in the ARK derby. Explosive. The rail is just the beginning of trouble. Then you get trapped |
| Bradley Bonar | BAFFERT HAS NO CHANCE |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Maxwell: Why you think AK the wiseguy? I haven't heard much bout him. |
| DRFDerby | And he's tossing Twinspired, Derby Kitten, Pants on Fire, Comma, Uncle Mo |
| Jeanne Liddy | i like the ark derby, too. fab race |
| Joe Smith | I think Battaglia really missed ML on Animal Kingdom |
| Maxwell Kagan | Albarado broke his face today, he is riding Animal Kingdon |
| Bruce Dutton | two top trainers that are winners -- like Coach K and Boeheim |
| Justin Brownstein | He reminds me a lot of Lookin at Lucky except lookin was more talented |
| Ken | You people who get off Archarcharch will be SORRY! |
| Jeffrey | Same here Joe Smith |
| Thomas Foynes | i heard that the trainer for Tapit gives his horse a pint of guiness before each race |
| Scott | Okay, what exactly is a 'wise guys' horse? |
| Jeanne Liddy | derbykitten does have some stamina influences in his pedigree |
| Jeanne Liddy | lotsa horses like guinnes. raising hand here! |
| JKarbo214 | midnight interlude, soldat, animal kingdom, uncle mo top 4 for a really nice buck! |
| Bradley Bonar | ANIMAL KINGDOM has wet numbers that are probably tops of this field, has been working well, but I don't know...just because you have the EAR |
| Jeffrey | There are some anti-synthetic handicappers who let ideology trump rational thought when it comes to making a good pic |
| Stephen | Jeanne: speed on Dam's side |
| Justin Brownstein | Value??? No horse has hit the board from post one since 1988. I dont see any value there |
| Dug-A-B | I love cauliflower and cheese |
| cat thief | What do you think of stay thirsty? |
| Bradley Bonar | EARNINGS doesn' |
| John Huber | AAA no chance save your money... |
| Jeanne Liddy | true.. |
| Bruce Dutton | Put money on Arch so the rest of us can garner |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Scott: Wise guy horse - 'This horse is doing great! You gotta use him' Shave off 10 odds points |
| Bradley Bonar | SLEEPER |
| jeffhasselman | Still ike AAA...hius style is better than LookinAtLucky from that spot --LAL had no chance from just off the pace |
| Jeanne Liddy | staythirsty is not a distance horse |
| Bradley Bonar | STAY THIRSTY has WORKED right with MO |
| Clocker | I wouldn't touch AAA at anything less than 20-1 |
| Bradley Bonar | And Pletcher has always liked THIRSTY |
| Maxwell Kagan | @marcus Ive been following the chatter this week and it seems like his name is flying to the top. You havent heard much Nehro talk |
| Clocker | LAL much better horse than AAA |
| Jeanne Liddy | mo isn't a distance horse either. and has had a bone chip and is not sound or fit. |
| jeffhasselman | his odds are going to baloon due to the 1...which is great |
| Bradley Bonar | Thirsty will beat MO |
| Joe Smith | Not making accusations, but did it look like the guy drawing horses was shuffling papers after aquick look at the pill? |
| rikib | Does Nakatani still have it? |
| Josh Atkinson | i like stay thirsty, especially they way he has been working |
| jeffhasselman | this race is much weaker than lasat year |
| Bruce Dutton | Then --where is Arch going to run -- there are 19 out there for Him to mow down -- silly |
| Don Soucy | How legit was MMM's shoe excuse? |
| Jeanne Liddy | no developed chest muscles and seen at bel with a pony trotting the whole track while having his head heald |
| Justin Brownstein | Just like LAL odds soared last year right? |
| Thomas Foynes | @ rikib no, he's fat |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | About Arch3X: He didn't run as well from rail at OP; looked better outside last time? |
| jeffhasselman | He was the target...AAA is not |
| Jeffrey | I suspect Mo was pin-fired and is gimpy.Heck, he's way underweight and looked war-torn in the Wood |
| Bradley Bonar | ARCHARCHARCH probably peaked in the ARK DERBY, which was good for me at 25-1 |
| Jeffrey | The only reason I'd bet Uncle Mo is if I wanted to punish myself |
| Bradley Bonar | MO hasn't faced any tough 3 year ols |
| Jeanne Liddy | yes. ;pinfired and off. seen him on the main/training track lately before ky |
| John Huber | AAA will bounce in the derby...just sayin |
| Bradley Bonar | name 1 |
| Jeanne Liddy | not sound |
| Mark Perrin | I toss Mo and Midnigh. |
| Bruce Dutton | Do we now target horses running ahead of us as a KD jockey ????????????? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | We don't need to know bout Mo rumors; He should have run better last time. |
| Jeanne Liddy | had chip removed in fl |
| Jeffrey | Ditto @ Jeanne |
| Ivan Onna | Midnight Interlude = winner... |
| cat thief | Marcus, what do you make of the 'wash out' of stay thirsty in his last? |
| Ivan Onna | most upsdie potential |
| Shaman Krauss | Easier to be top trainers when you get the cream of the crop and assistants train them. Go underdogs! |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Did Mo have a temp? How much did the GI thing affect him? |
| jeffhasselman | possibility...who do you have John Hubner? |
| Bradley Bonar | NO WAY 2 ivan |
| Justin Brownstein | Hersh.. What about Santiva. He ran big off the bench and then didnt have any space last time? Does he look like a horse that can win? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Mo a little late starting back. Tailored race. |
| Jeffrey | Marcus, the evidence is in the numbers and the way he's fired |
| Daniel Piper | Panel of 5 to decide if Mo starts50/50 according to TTimes article |
| John Huber | I like Nehro... |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Mo developed so fast. Total freak at 2. |
| Bruce Dutton | Midnight whomever should be runnning after midnight, SIR |
| Jeanne Liddy | yea...cream of the crop- wealthy owners buying more tix to the lottery and the steam to keep buying winners |
| Julie | Jeanne, stop beating a dead horse. We heard you the first time. Or is this what you are after? OMG! you train in ny!!!! |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | How often does that carry over to the next year? These days? |
| Bradley Bonar | UPSIDE yes, but MID INTER has no seasoning |
| stunner81 | Mucho Macho Man wins!!! |
| Jeanne Liddy | lol |
| Jeffrey | Nehro's last race is an optical illusion |
| Bradley Bonar | no way he wins |
| Bradley Bonar | MACHO doesn't really turn 3 until SUMMER |
| Bruce Dutton | MO IS DONE AT 3 when it is over l mile , WRITER |
| JKarbo214 | jeanne spend time at saratoga during the summer? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Nehro came so far so fast; does he have another plus race right now? 3 wks back? |
| Bradley Bonar | big horse, and probably could hit the ticket in all 3 races |
| cscinsurance1 | @Jeffry-how so? |
| Jeanne Liddy | yep. sara |
| Ivan Onna | I think I'll be getting a juicy 15-1 |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Macho is a young horse. Tall, leggy. Tough. Trains miles and miles |
| Dug-A-B | Bradley what are your picks? thanks |
| John Huber | Yes...third race...peak race... |
| Bradley Bonar | I like MUCHO |
| Bradley Bonar | 17 plus hands |
| JKarbo214 | I don't live far from saratoga, love it there |
| Joe Smith | I look for Mucho to take a step up, he wasn't wired tight for LA Derby. |
| Don Soucy | Who's the last horse to do anything coming from LA Derby? Risen Star and then....? (asking, don't know) |
| Shaman Krauss | Mo will not start - hanging around long enough for the PR before going to stud or sprinter. |
| Stephen | If Holy Bull couldnt get it done, MMM won't either |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Hey- anyone know if the Bind allowance race 'went' Saturday? |
| cscinsurance1 | @Jeffry-how so? |
| cat thief | Do the best 3 yr olds go to Louisiana or stay in Florida, Cali, and NY? |
| DelMarDennis | If Stay Thirsty wins the price of Dos Equis beer will go through the roof. Stay Thirsty, my friends. |
| Bradley Bonar | He lost a shoe in the LA DERBY |
| Bruce Dutton | 3 is 3 -- they all have tranined ------ l JANUARY ........ PERHAPS You want a two year and 9 month race vice the Derby |
| Ivan Onna | I look for athletic horse for teh Derrby..not the bulky ones |
| Daniel Piper | Soldat was loving the CD track |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | MMM not nearly as talented as Holy Bull - but doesn;t have to be if things work |
| Jeffrey | Marcus, who do you like in the Oaks? |
| Jeanne Liddy | cat theif: different circuits is all |
| John Catalano | Mo- $14.80, $8.20, $5.60. |
| Anthony Aiello | marcus can we get your top 3 for the oaks please |
| Bradley Bonar | 3 is 3, but it's not |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Soldat, i think, has to be considered. Especially if wet. |
| Joe Smith | How many from Sunland before MTB? |
| DRFDerby | 5-minute warning... we're going to wrap up at 8. Get in those final questions... |
| Clocker | Best 3 y/o isn't even in America this year |
| Jeanne Liddy | i agree about soldat |
| cscinsurance1 | @Ivan-did espinoza leave anyting in the tank with MI? |
| Bruce Dutton | The best are breed in KY but can be foaled elsewhere ----- REMEMBER ; FUNNY CIDE.... |
| stunner81 | Mucho Macho Man wins derby and Summer Soiree wins the Oaks. Simple as that. |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Haven't formed Oaks top 3 yet. St. John's River is my horse, tho/ |
| Shaman Krauss | Soldat, Shackleford, MMM, Archx3 |
| John Huber | well..I'm out...good luck to all...still saying the payoffs will pay like a slot machine! |
| Jeanne Liddy | how is alvarado- is he riding/ok? |
| DelMarDennis | Guesses on the final time O/U 2:02 and 3/5? |
| Jeffrey | Thanks Marcus |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @ccinsurance: How could Esp, leave in tank with Midnight? They knew what at the time? |
| Stephen | MI ran as fast as First Dude on th same day |
| cat thief | Ive lost much betting on La. Derby horses...pyro, repent, etc |
| Anthony Aiello | thanks |
| Sanjay Bhartia | Love StJohn's and Daisy Devine at prices |
| Bruce Dutton | SOLDAT can run well if dryierererererer,Writer |
| Frank | Soldat even from the 17 with the speed inside of him? |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | Good racing everyone. Hope all come back ok whoever wins |
| JKarbo214 | jeanne who are your top 2 for the oaks? |
| Justin Brownstein | Shaman I originally tossed Shackleford but I just started to like him. Romans is so high on him and almost guarantees he will move forward. |
| Daniel Piper | Every record made to be broken- Apollo (Midnight Interlude), Soldat, Nehro, ArchArchArch cold superfecta |
| Don Soucy | Soldat or Shackleford - one of them will stay.Comma and Pants cheap. Just get the right closer |
| elvis | good luck to all |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @cathief: La Derby, Risen Star, not great this year. |
| Bruce Dutton | Surely only one of 20 will WIN |
| Kathie Roller-Stell | Romans is crafty |
| Scott | Any body know when the 1 hole won with a field 12 or more? |
| cscinsurance1 | Marcus-looked to me like Esp was into him hard |
| cat thief | not great any yr |
| Clocker | I like Shackleford. Won't throw him off my exotics |
| Shaman Krauss | Soldat loves the mud |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | I'd agree, Don Soucy; think Soldat, Shack the most likely to stay who might have lead |
| andersondeals | Soldat should get great positioning the way it should break. |
| Bruce Dutton | LA DEBY is a loser |
| jeffhasselman | The 1 won't hurt me..had Ice Box from the 2 last year and see a similar race unfolding |
| Sanjay Bhartia | not a super by any means but I'll be using some big prices- MI, MOH, Brilliant and Nehro |
| Joe Smith | I think LA was best in years Marcus. |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @BruceDutton: Harsh words. You might be right about poor La Derby, tho |
| foryourhandicap | Shack won't have lead, and horses it will be running with are much better imo. |
| DelMarDennis | @scott Ferdinand when from the 1-hole with a pretty big field in 1986. |
| Ivan Onna | I think Uncle Mo is ready for the breeding shed |
| Don Soucy | Scott - Ferdinand |
| Stephen | Marcus: any thoughts on MoH? |
| Jeanne Liddy | joyful victory and ..lilacs and lace for the oaks |
| Shaman Krauss | Good luck everyone - may the horse be with you! |
| Bruce Dutton | Soldat is just a very steady horse and with a clean tripCAN be up there for 1-2-3 |
| Scott | Thanks Del |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Man in know today suggested one major takeaway '11 Derby; 'All button!' |
| Bradley Bonar | May the horse be with us all! |
| stunner81 | Mucho Macho brings me mucho dinero!! |
| Thomas Foynes | i heard calvin bo-rail plucked out the rest of his teeth so he'd be lighter |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Stephen: Here are Master of Hounds thoughts |
| Jeffrey | I don't like the idea of Uncle Mo's owner saying he'll manipulate the pools to make sure he's the favorite |
| Jeffrey | that ruins the integrity of the game |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Hounds is an outsider, and the ones here seem slow, so that's a plus |
| cat thief | got any singles in the pick 4? |
| elvis | moh from ran sire line |
| Jeanne Liddy | hope the horses are with us all and they have a good , safe trip! |
| Bruce Dutton | Keep the W/P/ALL for the Belmont |
| wmspt | BRILLIANT! |
| Don Soucy | Thx Marcus! |
| jeffhasselman | thanks everyone |
| JKarbo214 | jeanne second that |
| Jeffrey | Thank you Marcus |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | Hounds faced better Euro 2yos last year, but Frankel killed them in 2000 guineas |
| Sanjay Bhartia | Mo is a bet against. DI may be as well due to racing style |
| Stephen | thanks |
| Bradley Bonar | Mo was great at 2, but hasn't faced anyone at 3....Slow times also as a 3 year old |
| Jeffrey | and thanks for the pic |
| Jacob Luft | @Jeanne May the horse be with you |
| jeffhasselman | thanks Marcus |
| Sanjay Bhartia | BRILLIANT is right! |
| Clocker | RIP Devil May Care |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | so to finish with houds, overall Euro crop might be soft as the one here |
| Don Soucy | He can barely move the pools - this ain't Mountaineer |
| Jeanne Liddy | :) |
| Ivan Onna | Superfecta Box: MMM, Shack, MI, Santiva |
| Jeffrey | Yes, RIP Devil May Care---fabulous horse |
| DelMarDennis | Thanks Marcus. Good luck everyone. |
| Jeanne Liddy | poor devil may care- heartbreaking |
| Thomas Foynes | gigitty gig |
| Kelly Fineis | @Clocker..yes RIP |
| Scott | Good luck all and thx Marcus |
| Justin Brownstein | thanks |
| Sanjay Bhartia | yeah Clocker RIP to the filly |
| Shaman Krauss | Blind statement by Repole - he knows he isn't running and it serves no purpose anyway |
| Matt Fidler | Thanks Marcus |
| Bradley Bonar | Repole is a jerk |
| Kelly Fineis | How about the Animal? or a 'Shack' attack? |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Thomas Foynes was a major contributor tonight! |
| John Catalano | Good luck all!!! |
| Sanjay Bhartia | I do like Vitamin Water but I don't like UM |
| Clocker | Kelly....yes to both |
| andersondeals | Thanks Marcus |
| cscinsurance1 | thaks marcus |
| Jeffrey | Shaman, at least his statement alerted backers to stay off of him |
| Thomas Foynes | my pleasure |
| Bradley Bonar | look at the 1,2,3 finishers of the BLUE GRASS |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | This format was kind of awkward and has given me some arthritis! |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | But I enjoyed it - in a masochistic way |
| Bradley Bonar | not crazy about it as a prep, but some horses closed into slow times |
| Matt Fidler | this place is like an unruly study hall |
| Jeffrey | Carpal Tunnel is underrated |
| JKarbo214 | thanks marcus |
| Bruce Dutton | Marcus THANKS -- will You buy a program for the KD? |
| Jeffrey | lol Matt |
| Timothy Gross | what turf specialist you guys think is hitting the board |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | You all were surprisingly diplomatic, given the state of discourse online today! |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @Jeffrey: Carpal Takin' Ovuh! |
| Jeffrey | Go to Dan Illman's blog |
| Jeffrey | haha |
| Bruce Dutton | Let US BOTH SHAVE MARCUS |
| DRFMarcus_Hersh | @TimothyGross: Animal - Kingdom |
| Bradley Bonar | Thanks Marcus |
| Sanjay Bhartia | good call Bradley the winner is the Dynaformer |
| Shaman Krauss | Thank you for the chat Marcus - everyone! |
| Don Soucy | TMI |
| Bruce Dutton | MINDSHAFT |
| DRFDerby | Big thanks to Marcus. Come back tomorrow for a Q&A with Steven Crist. Free Derby PPs on DRF.com later tonight |