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Kentucky Derby Future Wager: Mutuel field surpasses Verrazano for favoritism

Marty McGee|Mar 24, 2013
Itsmyluckyday, Calder, Feb. 23, 2013
Tom Keyser Itsmyluckyday, shown working at Calder in February, has not missed a beat in his training since winning the Holy Bull Stakes in January.

LOUISVILLE - With fans splitting their wagers among a host of Kentucky Derby hopefuls, the mutuel field closed Sunday as the favorite again in the third and final pool of the 2013Kentucky Derby Future Wager, with Verrazano a clear second choice.

The field, the 24th or “all others” option, closed at a lukewarm 5-1, followed by Verrazano at 7-1. They were followed in close order by Itsmyluckyday (10-1), Vyjack (10-1), Revolutionary (12-1), Orb (13-1), Flashback (15-1), Hear the Ghost (15-1), and, remarkably enough, five more horses between 18-1 and 21-1.

The lowest $2 exacta will-pay was the combination of Verrazano over Itsmyluckyday (20-7), worth $99.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

Pool 3 win handle was $266,073 and exacta handle was $136,094 for a total of $402,167, only seventh-best for a Pool 3 in the 15 years since Churchill Downs first began offering parimutuel futures in 1999. The record Pool 3 handle of $533,973 came in 2005. The Pool 3 handle last year was $427,347.

The three-pool aggregate handle for 2013 was $1,430,698, fifth-highest in history. The record aggregate of $1,665,990 was set in 2005. The aggregate last year was $1,470,019.

Roughly 52 percent of the Pool 3 handle, or $206,763, was bet Sunday. Wagering on Sundays typically more than doubles the two previous days combined as fans wait until odds become firmer before placing their wagers, which become locked in only after the pool closes.

The only listed Pool 3 horse to run in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park was Uncaptured, who ran a good second behind Black Onyx. He entered Sunday at 33-1 before showing minimal movement when closing at 31-1.

The only separate interest to run Sunday in the Sunland Derby was Shakin It Up, but the race was to be run well after the pool closed at 6 p.m. Eastern. He closed at 36-1.

Pool 1 was held Feb. 8-10 and Pool 2 March 1-3. The field closed as the 3-2 favorite in Pool 1 and the 3-1 choice in Pool 2. Typically, as the Derby draws nearer, the odds on the field tend to drift higher and a separate interest usually closes as the Pool 3 favorite, but not this year.

Pool 3 field horses have won the Derby three times, the last being Mine That Bird in 2009. None was favored. The highest $2 win payout for a Pool 3 horse was $107.40 on Funny Cide in 2003, while the highest win payout for any pool also was for Funny Cide (Pool 1, $188).

POOL 3 FINAL ODDS

(No., Horse, Pool 1 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 3 odds)

1. Code West, 56-1, 28-1, 29-1, $61.80

2. Den’s Legacy, 77-1, 68-1, 43-1, $89.60

3. Falling Sky, 114-1, 79-1, 95-1, $192.40

4. Flashback, 12-1, 12-1, 15-1, $33.40

5. Goldencents, 20-1, 24-1, 49-1, $101.80

6. Hear the Ghost, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 15-1, $33

7. Itsmyluckyday, 13-1, 13-1, 10-1, $23.80

8. Java’s War, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 31-1, $65.40

9. Mr Palmer, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 54-1, $111.40

10. Noble Tune, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 50-1, $102.40

11. Normandy Invasion, 15-1, 17-1, 18-1, $39.20

12. Orb, 3-2(f), 12-1, 13-1, $29.60

13. Overanalyze, 33-1, 37-1, 49-1, $101.60

14. Oxbow, 26-1, 31-1, 21-1, $44.60

15. Palice Malice, 3-2(f), 40-1, 42-1, $87

16. Revolutionary, 13-1, 15-1, 12-1, $27.80

17. Shakin It Up, 3-2(f), 48-1, 36-1, $74.80

18. Shanghai Bobby, 14-1, 16-1, 18-1, $38.80

19. Uncaptured, 40-1, 35-1, 31-1, $64.40

20. Verrazano, 11-1, 9-1, 7-1, $17

21. Vyjack, 49-1, 11-1, 10-1, $23.20

22. War Academy, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 18-1, $39.80

23. Will Take Charge, 61-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, $41.80

24. Field (all others), 3-2, 3-1, 5-1, $13.40

(f) – Field entry in Pool 1 and/or 2.

Win handle, $266,073.
Exacta handle, $136,094.
Combined handle, $402,167.

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