Kentucky Derby Future Wager bets have some sitting pretty
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Bettors with the foresight to back Mendelssohn in the first two pools of the 2018 Kentucky Derby Future Wager are among those sitting on the biggest overlays as the 144th Derby at Churchill Downs draws near.
The future wager consisted of four pools: Pool 1, Nov. 23-26; Pool 2, Feb. 9-11; Pool 3, March 9-11; and Pool 4, April 6-8. All pools consisted of 23 separately listed individual interests and a mutuel field, the 24th or “all others” entry.
Mendelssohn, the 5-1 second choice on the Churchill morning line for Saturday, closed at 31-1 in Pool 1 and 44-1 in Pool 2. Other overlays include Magnum Moon, 25-1 in Pool 3; Vino Rosso, 39-1 in Pool 3; Noble Indy, 60-1 in Pool 3; Lone Sailor, 100-1 in Pool 1; and Instilled Regard, 104-1 in Pool 4.
Undervalued futures prices include Instilled Regard at 18-1 in Pool 2 and Promises Fulfilled at 24-1 in Pool 3. Also, making early plays on Bolt d’Oro was no real bargain, as his respective odds in the four pools were 7-1, 8-1, 7-1, and 9-1.
Bettors who used the field in the first two pools are in a good position, as the following Derby starters were included in both: Justify, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso, My Boy Jack, Hofburg, and Flameaway. Audible also was in the Pool 1 field. The field was favored in the first three pools – at 6-5, 5-2, and 4-1 – before closing at 17-1 in the last pool.
Besides Bolt d’Oro, only four other horses were individual interests in all four pools: Free Drop Billy, Good Magic, Mendelssohn, and Solomini.
Individual interests to make the Derby lineup: eight in Pool 1; nine in Pool 2; 16 in Pool 3; and 18 in Pool 4.
The three most prominent horses to miss the Derby all were individual interests in the first three pools: Avery Island, McKinzie, and Sporting Chance.
Churchill has offered parimutuel futures since 1999. The most notable winning overlays included Funny Cide at 93-1 in Pool 1 in 2003, and Always Dreaming at 42-1 in Pool 3 last year. The biggest underlay was Giacomo (2005), who was 25-1 in Pool 1 before winning at 50-1 Derby Day odds.
Aggregate handle of $1,709,679 (win and exacta) for 2018 was the highest in the 20-year history of the futures, surpassing the record ($1,665,990) set in 2005. That figure does not include the Oaks futures (concurrent with Pool 3) and the Derby Sire futures (concurrent with Pool 1), which drew combined handle of $42,953.
Clearly the best bet in the Sire futures was on the late Scat Daddy at 26-1. He has four Derby starters in Justify, Mendelssohn, Flameaway, and Combatant. Curlin (6-1) has three starters in Good Magic, Vino Rosso, and Solomini, while Medaglia d’Oro (5-1 favorite) is the only other sire with multiple starters (Bolt d’Oro and Enticed). The field (eight starters) was a close 5-1 second choice.
