Kentucky Derby Future Wager: American Pharoah slight favorite

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The Bob Baffert duo of American Pharoah and Dortmund are the favorites atop the fourth and final pool in the 2015 Kentucky Derby Future Wager that closed Sunday.

When Pool 4 closed Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern, American Pharoah was the 5-1 favorite, with Dortmund a close second choice at 6-1. Mubtaahij was next at 8-1, followed by Carpe Diem at 10-1 and the mutuel field, the 24th or “all others” option, at 11-1. Then came Materiality (12-1), Firing Line (13-1), Far From Over (14-1), International Star (17-1), Upstart (18-1), and Prospect Park (18-1).

Easily the biggest odds shift for any horse during three days of wagering was for Mubtaahij, the impressive winner of the UAE Derby on Saturday; after Friday, the first day of wagering, the colt was 69-1. The other two prep winners Saturday dropped in less dramatic fashion: Materiality was 21-1 before winning the Florida Derby, and International Star was 22-1 prior to taking the Louisiana Derby.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

The Baffert colts both have one prep remaining toward the May 2 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs: Dortmund runs Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby, and American Pharoah runs a week later in the April 11 Arkansas Derby. Carpe Diem runs Saturday in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Combined handle for Pool 4, which had a three-day run with a Friday opening, was $417,673, with $273,017 bet to win and $144,456 in exactas. That amounts to an increase of 12 percent over combined handle for Pool 4 last year ($336,717).

Aggregate handle for the four pools was $1,523,175, which not only was up 15 percent over last year but is the second highest since Churchill first offered pari-mutuel futures in 1999. The all-time record for handle in one year is $1,665,990, set in 2005.

The lowest exacta will-pay combination is American Pharoah over Dortmund (1-7), worth $50.40 for $2. In the case of field horses filling both exacta slots, the next-best finish by a separately listed horse counts toward the winning combination.

Pool 1 was held Nov. 28-30; Pool 2 from Feb. 6-8; and Pool 3 from Feb. 27-March 1. The field closed as the favorite in all three. Seven horses were separately listed in all four pools: American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, Daredevil, Dortmund, El Kabeir, Mr. Z, and Upstart.

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 FINAL ODDS

(No. Horse Trainer P1 P2 P3 P4)

1. American Pharoah B.Baffert 12-1 10-1 8-1 5-1

2. Ami’s Flatter J.Carroll 3-5(f) 5-2(f) 4-1(f) 91-1

3. Bold Conquest S.Asmussen 3-5(f) 5-2(f) 4-1(f) 91-1

4. Bolo C.Gaines 3-5(f) 5-2(f) 34-1 28-1

5. Carpe Diem T.Pletcher 15-1 12-1 10-1 10-1

6. Daredevil T.Pletcher 48-1 40-1 43-1 39-1

7. Dortmund B.Baffert 9-1 10-1 9-1 6-1

8. Dubai Sky W.Mott 3-5(f) 5-2(f) 4-1(f) 23-1

9. El Kabeir J.Terranova 74-1 39-1 47-1 28-1

10. Far From Over T.Pletcher 3-5(f) 5-2(f) 13-1 14-1

11. Far Right R.Moquett 3-5(f) 48-1 30-1 39-1

12. Firing Line S.Callaghan 3-5(f) 35-1 29-1 13-1

13. Frosted K.McLaughlin 38-1 31-1 4-1(f) 40-1

14. International Star M.Maker 3-5(f) 44-1 22-1 17-1

15. Itsaknockout T.Pletcher 3-5(f) 30-1 30-1 53-1

16. Keen Ice D.Romans 3-5(f) 5-2(f) 27-1 69-1

17. Madefromlucky T.Pletcher 3-5(f) 5-2(f) 4-1(f) 92-1

18. Materiality T.Pletcher 3-5(f) 5-2(f) 4-1(f) 12-1

19. Mr. Z W.Lukas 47-1 44-1 44-1 70-1

20. Mubtaahij M.deKock 3-5(f) 5-2(f) 4-1(f) 8-1

21. Prospect Park C.Sise 3/5(f) 35-1 26-1 18-1

22. Upstart R.Violette 53-1 12-1 15-1 18-1

23. War Story T.Amoss 3-5(f) 5-2(f) 30-1 41-1

24. Field (all others) n/a 3-5 5-2 4-1 11-1

(f) – denotes field entry.

Win pool: $273,017

Exacta pool: $144,456

Total: $417,673

Four-pool aggregate: $1,523,175