Kentucky Derby: Favorites looking just fine

CHURCHILL DOWNS

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Temperature: 52

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LOUISVILLE, Ky. – It was another perfect morning for training Thursday at Churchill Downs, where all the Derby activity took place after the renovation break.

There were really no surprises during Thursday’s session, with all the Derby “lookers” continuing to look good again. That includes AMERICAN PHAROAH, who had another great morning. So did many of the other members of the California contingent, including FIRING LINE and BOLO, who is a striking-looking colt and doing well here in Kentucky. UPSTART was more relaxed Thursday than the previous morning and made a very good appearance during a busy session, which included a one-mile jog and a 1 1/4-mile gallop. MATERIALITY continues to look good, as does DANZIG MOON. EL KABEIR was full of run from the moment he turned around to gallop, not surprising since it was the first time he got to really stretch his legs since a very swift workout last Saturday in New York.[bc_playlist_id:289889:]

MUBTAAHIJ blew out three-eighths in 37.40 seconds, with his final quarter in 24.68. He remained on his left lead throughout and pulled up fairly abruptly on the gallop-out. He worked with front shoes and no back shoes after training without any shoes at all the previous two mornings.

Neither OCHO OCHO OCHO nor INTERNATIONAL STAR came to the track Thursday, while FROSTED got there early, walking over to the paddock prior to the renovation break before joining his fellow Derby competitors for a gallop.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY WORKOUTS: Video analysis, news, and times

The following are final impressions of all 20 Derby starters from observations made over the past 12 days.

OCHO OCHO OCHO – Has not looked all that comfortable galloping since his arrival from California, and his three-furlong blowout Wednesday was average at best. Tack on the dreaded inside post, and his prospects of pulling off a major upset or even hitting the board are not good.

CARPE DIEM – He looked very good breezing at Keeneland on April 18, according to DRF clocker Steven Skaggs. His gallops seem to have been well controlled since his arrival at Churchill Downs, and though he comes with the reputation of being high-maintenance, he schooled well in the gate and paddock earlier in the week. His major obstacle might be trying to work out a trip from his inside post.

MATERIALITY – Turned in a series of very good works both at Palm Beach Downs and here last week since his win over Upstart over a very demanding track at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby. He appears to be maintaining his form nicely and gives every indication he is ready for another top effort, but like Carpe Diem, he must find a way to trip out after breaking near the inside.

TENCENDUR – Good-looking colt turned in a decent-looking five-furlong breeze here last weekend, although his energy level coming out of the work did not seem quite the same as it was going in.

DANZIG MOON – Was a bit too keen during the early stages of a very fast work in company April 18 but relaxed much better for jockey Julien Leparoux the following week. He has looked as good during gallops as anyone in this field over the past 12 days.

MUBTAAHIJ – He looked average since his local arrival while training without shoes until blowing out three furlongs Thursday and remains a bit of a mystery despite his huge effort in the UAE Derby.

EL KABEIR – Zipped through his final work in New York when encountering unexpected company and showed a high energy level when finally back to galloping here Thursday, but he’s seemingly a cut below the best of this bunch.

DORTMUND – On tape, his final work at Santa Anita looked special, and he really seems to be flourishing since his arrival in Kentucky. Imposing-looking colt showed some nice acceleration for a horse his size in that final breeze, and he’s versatile enough to work out a good trip Saturday. It’s hard to find any holes in his armor.

BOLO – Looked good on tape in his final work at Santa Anita and has made a striking appearance since arriving locally. Although he has the unmistakable action of a horse who’d prefer grass, he seems to have adapted very nicely to the local surface, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he outran his odds in the Derby.

FIRING LINE – I watched the tape of his final maintenance work at Santa Anita last weekend, and he was never asked for much by jockey Gary Stevens. That followed a couple of swifter five-furlong drills earlier in the month, and he’s made a super impression since arriving locally. He’s been galloping in draw reins to keep him from doing too much. He has already given Dortmund a run for his money twice, and he might be sitting on his best yet.

INTERNATIONAL STAR – Saw more of the Louisiana Derby winner this winter in Florida, where he was just an average work horse. Most of his training here took place at Trackside, and he was absent from the track here Thursday. Must respect that he’s a steadily improving colt who knows how to win, but he will have to take another big step forward to vie for the top spots.

ITSAKNOCKOUT – Has turned in an average series of works both at Palm Beach Downs and locally following his disappointing effort in the Florida Derby, but he has shown a nice energy level since his final breeze here last Friday. Just not sure he packs enough punch to factor in this spot.

KEEN ICE – Saw him all winter in Florida, where he was mostly an average work horse, and he did not look much different in his final work. That came in typical Dale Romans fashion – five furlongs from the half-mile pole with Tammy Fox up. That being said, he has shown good energy in subsequent gallops and might just relish the added distance.

FROSTED– Has been pretty much in maintenance mode since his big win in the Wood Memorial, with a couple of fairly easy five-furlong breezes at Palm Meadows prior to shipping locally early this week. His gallops have been similarly orchestrated since his arrival Tuesday. He might be hard to ignore off that last effort, at least for a share.

WAR STORY – Certainly not the prettiest mover during his gallop sessions. He put in an average maintenance work April 22 and really hasn’t given the impression that he’s poised to move forward enough to be any kind of factor in this super-tough field.

MR. Z – His final five-furlong work in company with a turf specialist was average at best, although he did keep a straight path from start to finish, which is relevant considering his penchant to drift. Overall, he’s done nothing to suggest he’s going to be anything more than a pace factor Saturday.

AMERICAN PHAROAH – There are not enough superlatives to describe his final Derby work, which was as special as it gets, or the way he’s come out of the work with a series of eye-catching gallops. He just seemed to glide as he moved over the track. A very athletic-looking colt with long, powerful strides and a great demeanor, he might just be a cut above this talented bunch and is strictly the one to beat if able to avoid trouble.

UPSTART – He danced all the dances this winter at Gulfstream and was beaten to the wire by just one horse, Materiality, which came in the Florida Derby. He seems none the worse for wear after a couple of hard efforts over a demanding Gulfstream Park strip and the bout he had with a sinus infection shortly thereafter. Both his works at Palm Meadows prior to shipping locally were impressive, as always, and he’s made a similarly strong impression since arriving at Churchill Downs, but he must overcome a very tough post.

FAR RIGHT – Has been a bundle of energy and in run-off mode on a regular basis during training hours, with his one local work here last week looking average. Combine all that with an outside post, and he faces an uphill task against this bunch.

FRAMMENTO – His final prep at Keeneland was average. He pulled away from his target but was under some urging from jockey Joe Bravo. He was fortunate to draw into the race with the scratch of Stanford, but working out any kind of trip will be difficult from the outside.