Kentucky Derby angles: Peck on value

Assessing value in the Kentucky Derby always starts with questioning the favorite. What price will he be? What kind of trip will he get? Is he vulnerable? Nyquist is the 3-1 morning-line favorite for the Derby, and that by definition makes him an underlay in a 20-horse field.

Taking a short price in the Derby isn't going to appeal to any player seeking value, and Nyquist will be the clear public choice in all pools, likely no better than 4-1. He certainly has the credentials and is a deserving favorite – he's undefeated in seven starts, he's versatile, and he's in very good form – but he has no clear edge in Beyer Speed Figures, with his top figure coming in a sprint where he held a pace edge.

He's at his best when he's close up, but he's not going to get clear early, not with Danzing Candy intent on the lead. That means a stalking trip, which he is capable of, but his best Beyers have come when he's been on the lead.

Many of the runners in this field exit prep races where quick early fractions helped to set up the closers. That includes horses like Suddenbreakingnews, Creator, Brody's Cause, My Man Sam, and Whitmore.

These one-run closers are similar in running style and in terms of Beyers and are tough to separate. They will vary in price at post time, but they all share a common trait: They are coming off favorable pace scenarios and could be looking at an unfavorable race shape in the Derby. That in and of itself makes it tough to like them as value plays, regardless of post-time odds.

Exaggerator is a horse who will take money, likely more than the 8-1 morning-line odds suggest. Yes, he made an eye-catching move to win the Santa Anita Derby easily. But that victory, as well as his rally for the show in the San Felipe Stakes, were races where he was aided by the flow, as evidenced by the DRF Race Shape symbols.

He was also on a sloppy track in the Santa Anita Derby, where he posted a career-best Beyer of 103. He'll be bet off that figure, but without a similar setup, and on a fast strip, he's more likely to regress off that effort than he is to move forward. With that in mind, and as the likely second choice in the wagering, he's not one who should be considered a value play.

Gun Runner, at 10-1 on the morning line, along with Creator and Mohaymen, is another who could be considered overbet at that price. The reason is simple: Despite favorable trips in his two wins this year, he has not posted a Beyer good enough to win this race. A horse fitting that description shouldn't be considered among the favorites – he's the co-third choice on the line – in any race, much less in a race with a 20-horse field.

Trojan Nation could be the longest price in the field, but a long price does not equate to value. His relative chance of winning the Derby is probably around 1 percent to 2 percent, and his 50-1 morning-line odds reflect that. The story is similar for Oscar Nominated and Majesto, a pair of horses who don't have Beyers that suggest they'll make an impact Saturday. Lani is another who seems overmatched and hard to make a case for, regardless of price.

Mohaymen will take money based on his 2015 and early 2016 exploits, but he seemed to have no excuse in the Florida Derby, when behind Nyquist, and the competition he beat in his first five races can now be considered a cut below these in retrospect. If he is at his 10-1 morning-line price or lower, he's an underlay, based on his figures. Shagaf is another coming off a disappointing effort that seemed to expose him a bit, as he failed to make up ground late despite a very favorable setup. He'll be a big price, but he should be.

It will be interesting to see how Mo Tom is bet. He had very obvious trouble in his last two starts, and these are horses who are routinely overbet in their next starts. But inferior Beyers could keep the price high, and he does have lots of upside as a horse who could take a big step forward with a clean trip. I'd consider him a value play if at least 15-1, but if he's much less, any value gained from those rough trips is gone.

Tom's Ready is a horse to consider for exotics at a price. His trainer, Dallas Stewart, is well known for crashing the exotics with price horses behind the winners in recent years, but more than that, Tom's Ready hasn't run a poor race, save for the Risen Star two back, where he may have been caught too close to a quick early pace. He'll be every bit of 25-1, and at that price, he's worth using at least underneath.

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Mor Spirit is flying under the radar a bit, strange considering his connections. It seems too much is being put into his latest, where he was no match for a visually impressive Exaggerator, but the sloppy track provides a convenient excuse. He may well be unable to beat that rival, but the idea that one could get 12-1 on a Bob Baffert-trained runner in the Kentucky Derby is enough to consider him a value play Saturday in all slots.

Outwork was very game to win the Wood Memorial, and while the final time was very slow, he shouldn't have been expected to finish up strongly after that rapid early pace, and he was game to hold on, even over an 81-1 maiden. He also held well, albeit in defeat, in the Tampa Bay Derby two back, and despite those two solid efforts, he figures to be in the neighborhood of 12-1 in the Kentucky Derby. The relative lack of pace in this field should work to his advantage, as he could get first run at likely pacesetter Danzing Candy, and the Beyer he posted in the Tampa Bay Derby does give him credibility. He's worth using.

Destin and Danzing Candy are the only two runners in the field to have posted triple-digit Beyers without the benefit of having the race shape in their favor. Destin's win in the Tampa Bay Derby was with the aid of perfect positioning and a forward trip, but he has proven he can post a figure good enough to win this. Some players are turned off by the eight-week "layoff" since that race, but trainer Todd Pletcher might know a little more than they do, and it certainly has helped his price. All in all, if he's at or near his 15-1 morning-line price, he's a horse to include.

Danzing Candy is going to be on the lead, and there does not appear to be a horse in the field capable of running with him early. He got no favors at the post-position draw, as he will have to break from the far outside in this field of 20, but he will almost certainly be able to clear the other 19 before the turn, and if he's unpressured, as expected, he may be able to slow down the tempo, something he was unable to do last time in the Santa Anita Derby.

He was a game winner two back in the San Felipe, outrunning a couple of other speeds and continuing strongly to the wire to win despite running against the grain of the race shape. And the 100 Beyer he posted there is a figure many others in this field haven't cracked even with favorable race flows – some of them horses who will be around half his price. Whether he can win or not depends on his ability to get the distance, but regardless, Danzing Candy is one to use at 15-1 or better.