Kentucky Derby Angles: Illman on pedigree
Kentucky Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The six-part series begins with Dan Illman’s take on pedigree and continues with Dick Jerardi on Beyer Speed Figure patterns, Dave Litfin’s look at “trips,” Brad Free’s examination of post position, Kenny Peck’s pace projection, and Marcus Hersh on winning profiles and betting value.
Over the last 25 years or so, the breeding industry in North America has promoted speed over stamina. Why? Because speed sells. Thanks in part to 2-year-olds in-training auctions that put a premium on one- or two-furlong breeze times, that trend is unlikely to change, and it has forced pedigree analysts to reconsider what is important when handicapping races like the Kentucky Derby.
So, what role does pedigree play in analyzing the Kentucky Derby? Does it overshadow the basic handicapping tenets of speed, pace and class?
California Chrome was the best horse leading up to last year's race. He dominated his prep races at Santa Anita and was the deserving favorite on paper.
California Chrome's sire, Lucky Pulpit, never won past 5 1/2 furlongs. The dam, Love the Chase, won at a mile. While there was some stamina deep in the female family, California Chrome's bloodlines, for the most part, are geared to middle-distance racing.
Give the best horse a clean trip and he'll win, regardless of pedigree, right? That was the argument that some handicappers made after California Chrome's Derby score.
After all, they figured, in this day and age there are few horses that want any part of 10 furlongs from a pedigree standpoint.
Not so fast.
What California Chrome did have in his pedigree was one of the last great bastions of American staying power.
A. P. Indy.
By Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew out of Weekend Surprise, a mare by Triple Crown winner Secretariat, A.P. Indy was expected to relish longer-distance races. He did not disappoint in that regard.
A $2.9 million yearling purchase, A.P. Indy won the Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles and the Breeders' Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles en route to Horse of the Year honors as a 3-year-old of 1992.
He went on to a fantastic stallion career. Before being pensioned in 2011, A.P. Indy was a two-time champion sire by yearly progeny earnings and produced two classic winners in Bernardini (2006 Preakness Stakes) and Rags to Riches (2007 Belmont Stakes).
While A.P. Indy never sired a Derby winner, he has been a powerful presence in the pedigrees of three of the last five Derby winners.
The great-grandsire of California Chrome, A.P. Indy is also the grandsire of 2013 Derby hero Orb and the broodmare sire of 2010 winner Super Saver.
North American bloodlines nowadays are full of sprinters, milers, and middle-distance sorts. Is it possible that even a hint of A.P. Indy gives a horse that needed boost of stamina to succeed at longer distances?
As it pertains to the inexact science of pedigree where the longstanding axiom is "breed the best to the best and hope for the best," anything is possible.
Here are the 2015 Kentucky Derby entrants with A.P. Indy in their bloodlines:
Frosted - great-grandsire
Upstart - grandsire
Danzig Moon - grandsire
War Story - dam's grandsire
Stanford - grandsire
Mr. Z - grandsire
Perhaps these six horses, all at good prices, should be given extra consideration in exotic wagers.
Going the distance
For those of you that like numbers, here are the sire records at 1 1/4 miles (any surface) for the Derby aspirants. I've also included the record of the broodmare sire (as a broodmare sire) at the distance. These numbers were culled from the DRF database and include all North American races and selected foreign races.
Sire - 17 winning performers, 108 performers (16%), 18 wins from 181 starts (10%)
Broodmare sire - 6 winning performers, 31 performers (19%), 6 wins from 48 starts (13%)
Sire - 1 winning performer, 2 performers (50%), 1 win from 2 starts (50%)
Broodmare sire - 3 winning performers, 20 performers (15%), 3 wins from 30 starts (10%)
Sire - 41 winning performers, 229 performers (18%), 50 wins from 407 starts (12%)
Broodmare sire - 6 winning performers, 49 performers (12%), 6 wins from 102 starts (6%)
Sire - 0 winning performers, 2 performers, 0 wins from 2 starts
Broodmare sire - 0 performers
Sire - 7 winning performers, 40 performers (18%), 7 wins from 51 starts (14%)
Broodmare sire - 44 winning performers, 212 performers (21%), 59 wins from 423 starts (14%)
Sire - 13 winning performers, 83 performers (16%), 18 wins from 152 starts (12%)
Broodmare sire - 4 winning performers, 30 performers (13%), 7 wins from 75 starts (9%)
Sire - 3 winning performers, 23 performers (13%), 3 wins from 28 starts (11%)
Broodmare sire - 6 winning performers, 25 performers (24%), 9 wins from 42 starts (21%)
Sire - 8 winning performers, 24 performers (33%), 9 wins from 38 starts (24%)
Broodmare sire - 6 winning performers, 49 performers (12%), 6 wins from 102 starts (6%)
Sire - 2 winning performers, 8 performers (25%), 3 wins from 21 starts (14%)
Broodmare sire - 6 winning performers, 32 performers (19%), 9 wins from 119 starts (8%)
Sire - No performers
Broodmare sire - 0 winning performers, 2 performers, 0 wins from 3 starts
Sire - 16 winning performers, 79 performers (20%), 19 wins from 129 starts (15%)
Broodmare sire - 0 winning performers, 12 performers, 0 wins from 13 starts
Sire - No performers
Broodmare sire - No performers
Sire - 10 winning performers, 45 performers (22%), 13 wins from 72 starts (18%)
Broodmare sire - 53 winning performers, 316 performers (17%), 67 wins from 628 starts (11%)
Sire - 7 winning performers, 44 performers (16%), 9 wins from 75 starts (12%)
Broodmare sire - 6 winning performers, 28 performers (21%), 9 wins from 117 starts (8%)
Sire - No performers
Broodmare sire - 6 winning performers, 48 performers (13%), 6 wins from 101 starts (6%)
Sire - 10 winning performers, 45 performers (22%), 13 wins from 72 starts (18%)
Broodmare sire - 5 winning performers, 14 performers (36%), 7 wins from 32 starts (22%)
Sire - 10 winning performers, 45 performers (22%), 13 wins from 72 starts (18%)
Broodmare sire - 42 winning performers, 191 performers (22%), 60 wins from 454 starts (13%)
Sire - 2 winning performers, 19 performers (11%), 3 wins from 29 starts (10%)
Broodmare sire - 2 winning performers, 9 performers (22%), 2 wins from 10 starts (10%)
Bolo:
Sire - No performers
Broodmare sire - 1 winning performer, 2 performers (50%), 1 win from 3 starts (33%)
Sire - 0 winning performers, 9 performers, 0 wins from 13 starts
Broodmare sire - 3 winning performers, 16 performers (19%), 4 wins from 34 starts (12%)
As you can see from the above numbers, likely favorite American Pharoah's immediate pedigree lacks adequate data concerning distance ability. His sire, Pioneerof the Nile, was a stout racehorse. A son of Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, Pioneerof the Nile finished second in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Santa Anita Derby at nine furlongs. He should provide stamina to American Pharoah, but the female family is a different story entirely.
American Pharoah's dam, the unplaced Littleprincessemma, is by Yankee Gentleman. The winner of the restricted Pirate's Bounty Stakes at six furlongs with a whopping 117 Beyer Speed Figure, Yankee Gentleman did stretch his speed successfully to a one-turn 1 1/16 miles, but he is known best as a strong speed influence.
Littleprincessemma's best half-siblings, Misty Rosette and Storm Wolf (both by Stormin Fever), were both graded-stakes-winning sprinters who never attempted route racing.
American Pharoah's second dam, Exclusive Rosette (by Ecliptical), won a $25,000 stakes at five furlongs.
Much like California Chrome last year, American Pharoah roars into Louisville a deserving Derby candidate, albeit one lacking a classic distance pedigree.
Using this information
How to proceed? I would use pedigree as a tool, just as Beyer Speed Figures, trip handicapping, and workout, pace and class analyses are each singular pieces in a complex handicapping puzzle. It's rare that one horse ticks all of the boxes. If you have doubts about the merits of your Kentucky Derby choice, you can use pedigree to confirm or deny your opinion. Using pedigree analysis alone in determining your Kentucky Derby selection, however, seems a tricky proposition.