Kentucky Derby angles: Hersh on value

Kentucky Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The six-part series begins with Dan Illman’s take on pedigree and continues with Dick Jerardi on Beyer Speed Figure patterns, Dave Litfin’s look at “trips,” Brad Free’s examination of post position, Kenny Peck’s pace projection, and Marcus Hersh on winning profiles and betting value.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The concept of “value” in gambling resides very much in the eye of the beholder: One person’s overlay is another’s underlay. It all depends on one’s handicapping.

But that is the concept of value applied to a single horse and its odds in the win-place-show pools. Looking back over the recent Kentucky Derby results, we can identify what seems in retrospect like value in the win odds and certain horses, and that is certainly worth considering, but of likely greater value, and certainly more quantifiable, is the value we see produced in certain types of wagers in the Kentucky Derby.

In a nutshell – it abounds. We don’t get 20-horse fields in American racing (we are down to 19 this Derby as of late Friday afternoon), and therefore don’t see the sort gigantic payoffs regularly produced in the Derby, well, basically anywhere else. That is why when folks suggest horseplayers approach the Derby like any other race, I disagree. The Derby offers a unique opportunity, first because of field size and second because, if you are handicapping well enough to be beating random results, your advantage is multiplied on a day with so much dead money.

Start with the exacta, the simplest of exotic wagers. The last three years, 2012-2014, there has been value in the exacta pool. Using the crude “win price times place price of runner-up” formula, and even accounting for its rough edges, especially with so many possible combinations, the last three Derby exactas outperformed expectations. This has not always been the case in recent years, though, and the key appears to be getting a true longshot, something of the 30-1 variety, into the second spot, or a double-digit-priced winner on top, like I’ll Have Another in 2012. When the exacta includes a winner under 10-1 and a place horse under 15-1, the payoff does not give as much bang for the buck. If you, then, are keying one of the shorter-priced horses Saturday, like American Pharoah or Dortmund, do yourself a favor and at least fish around with a couple bombers you think have a sliver of hope.

Getting a true longshot anywhere into a winning trifecta will almost certainly trigger a big score as the trifecta also pays more in the Derby than it “should” under such circumstances. Take 2013 as an example. Favored Bodemeister finished second at odds of 4-1, sandwiched between 15-1 winner I’ll Have Another and 12-1 Dullahan, meaning three of the top eight betting choices filled out the trifecta, which paid $3,065.60 for $2.

The superfecta? Go there. It’s offered at only a $1 base bet, and things can get pricey if you start spreading wide in the third and fourth holes, but if you are playing the Derby, this is a great pool in which to get involved. That is especially true if you like the favorite, and doubly so in a year like this where American Pharoah could be bet to something like 5-2. If you love American Pharoah, it’s a much better risk-reward play to stick him alone at the top of the superfecta and start constructing plays with prices underneath him than to plunk down a larger-than-normal win bet. I wasn’t one of them, but a lot of folks were convinced California Chrome was a cinch in the 2014 Derby. He paid $7.60 to win and keyed a $15,383.80 superfecta. Was it tough to come up with Commanding Curve in the second slot at 37-1? Sure, but the third and fourth holes were filled out by 8-1 and 6-1 shots respectively – huge value in that super.

You love American Pharoah? Dortmund? Carpe Diem? Fine, whatever, and whether you think they offer value depends on your opinion. But if you really want to leverage those single-digit win-odds horses into true value, find a way to tie them into something in this massive field. It’s worth the extra time and effort.