Kentucky Derby 2025: Cyclone State early favorite in Saudi Derby

Led by Cyclone State, the winner of the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 4, Saturday’s Group 3, $1.5 million Saudi Derby at a mile in Saudi Arabia has three nominees to the American Triple Crown in its field of 10.

Cyclone State, trained by Chad Summers for the partnership of Gold Square LLC, George Messina, and Michael Lee, was the 3-1 favorite with British bookmakers as of Wednesday morning.

By McKinzie, Cyclone State will be ridden by Luis Rivera Jr., who has been aboard the colt in his last four starts and for three consecutive wins in one-mile races at Aqueduct – a maiden race in November, an allowance race in December, and the Jerome.

In each victory, Cyclone State disputed the pace before pulling clear in the stretch, winning by at least 2 1/2 lengths.

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Aside from Cyclone State, two Japanese runners – the filly Mistress and colt Shin Forever – are part of the Saudi Derby field and have been nominated to the Triple Crown. Both were beaten in their last starts in January in stakes in Japan and were rated as longshots as of Wednesday for the Saudi Derby.

The Saudi Derby is not part of the Kentucky Derby’s qualifying system. Last year, the Japanese-bred Forever Young won the Saudi Derby and followed with a win in the United Arab Emirates Derby in Dubai, earning sufficient points from that win to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

Forever Young finished third by a head in the Kentucky Derby behind Mystik Dan and was later third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar in November. On Saturday, Forever Young is a slight favorite over the Hong Kong star Romantic Warrior to win the Group 1 Saudi Cup, a $20 million race at 1 1/8 miles.

In Japan, the third of four Derby qualifiers – the Hyacinth Stakes at a mile – will be run at Tokyo Racecourse on Sunday. The series concludes with the Fukuryu Stakes at 1 1/8 miles at Nakayama on March 29.

One berth for the Kentucky Derby is available through Japan’s qualifying series.

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