Kentucky Derby 2021: Mike Welsch's picks and analysis
On paper, Essential Quality is the best horse going into this year’s Kentucky Derby. But when betting a race like the Derby, with a 20-horse field and all the other uncertainties that go with it, value is the key with the question being is Essential Quality worth the short price he figures to be, somewhere in the vicinity of 2-1, after the last of Mattress Mack’s win bets have gone through the windows?
With that in mind, why not take a shot with some of the more live longshots in the field, several of whom have made very favorable impressions training here over the past couple of weeks.
KNOWN AGENDA has a bevy of pluses on his side, with the only real negative the fact he drew the rail, which has been Derby negative for a long time. Hopefully, the new 20-horse starting gate will alleviate some of that issue. Otherwise, he brings a lot to like to the table, including major improvement since adding blinkers; the four starts, three of them wins, at 1 1/8 miles; and the potent jockey/trainer pair of Irad Ortiz Jr., who is riding as well as anyone at the moment, and Todd Pletcher. And as a bonus, the post draw and all that Mattress Mack money expected to come in on the favorite will likely see Florida Derby winner Known Agenda go postward as an overlay.
One can almost lump MANDALOUN, DYNAMIC ONE, and MIDNIGHT BOURBON together. All three are training extremely well coming into the Derby and have run races good enough to put them right in the mix at big prices. Granted, one must get by that head-scratching poor effort from Mandaloun in the Louisiana Derby, but he has worked and trained as well as anybody since exiting the race.
Dynamic One was run down late by Bourbonic in the Wood Memorial, but he seems to be training better than any of the Pletcher Derby quartet since coming to Louisville and appears to be sitting on another move forward at a square price.
The same can be said of Midnight Bourbon, who seems to be peaking at just the right time and will likely be part of the early pace scenario.
Obviously, you leave Essential Quality out of all wagers at your own peril. He comes in as the most talented horse in the field, with the only nagging thought whether he can reproduce his best races one more time stretching out to 1 1/4 miles off a grueling effort alongside Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass.
King Fury is another horse who could deliver at a big price the way he’s trained and breezed since winning the Lexington, but he’s faced with a tall task coming into this grueling race with only a single start at 3 coming just three weeks earlier.
Hot Rod Charlie cannot be left out of the picture, either, off a well-graded Louisiana Derby victory and an impressive final Derby work last week at Santa Anita.