Kentucky Derby 2021: Mike Beer's picks and analysis
KING FURY may be a bit behind the eight ball with just one start as a 3-year-old, even with that race being a career-best effort. The silver lining for this well-bred son of Curlin lies in that he had a solid foundation last year with five juvenile starts, including a stakes win over Churchill Downs dirt, leaving him open to further improvement now that he has had a race.
That lone run this year was a strong performance, rallying in the slop to dominate the Grade 3 Lexington with a big new top Beyer Speed Figure of 96. While he finished far behind Derby favorite Essential Quality in both the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year, King Fury had excuses in both of those races, and he also took the worst of it in his final start of 2020 when he ran wide contesting the pace in a race that fell apart late. He is an improving colt in a very well-matched Kentucky Derby field, and he is going to be a price.
KNOWN AGENDA flashed ability right away as a 2-year-old while finishing a solid second sprinting on debut, then stretched right out to win his maiden around two turns in his second start. He has been refocused with the addition of blinkers in his two most recent starts – both of them wins, including the Grade 1 Florida Derby with a new top figure – and he is the only 3-year-old in this field with two nine-furlong wins.
MEDINA SPIRIT is the rare Derby runner for this trainer to fly under the radar. That is partially due to an overall record that may appear to be uninspiring at first, with three seconds from his last four starts. Two of the losses were at the hands of Life Is Good, who was the top 3-year-old earlier this year before being forced to the sidelines. Medina Spirit never had much of a chance when rating wide behind loose-on-the-lead Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby most recently. The distance is a bit of a question, but he may be worth the risk at his morning-line price.
ESSENTIAL QUALITY is an undefeated multiple Grade 1 winner and the one to beat. The only concern is that he will go off at underlaid odds, and he isn’t any faster than many of his rivals in this Kentucky Derby. He can get any kind of a trip in a race, and perhaps his class will tell when all is said and done, but he may be worth taking a shot against at a short price.