Kentucky Derby 2021: Dan Illman's picks and analysis
ESSENTIAL QUALITY’s tactical speed and versatility might be key in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Assuming a clean break, the undefeated colt can adapt to any sort of pace scenario. If they go fast up front, as in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he can succeed from eight to 10 lengths off the lead. If they slow down the pace such as in the recent Blue Grass, he can sit right up close. I don’t think he squeezed the lemon dry when scoring at Keeneland last month, and he should be right in the thick of things when the real racing starts on the second turn.
ROCK YOUR WORLD is the fastest on the way in as he’s the only horse in the field that has earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. He went quick early and late winning his dirt debut in the Santa Anita Derby, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he grabs the early lead. He’s still a bit green with his lead changes, but he is very dangerous if allowed to relax up front.
HOT ROD CHARLIE paired up Beyer tops in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Robert B. Lewis Stakes, then put it all together with a breakthrough effort in the Louisiana Derby. He received a sharp ride from close to the pace in a race that held together, and might have to rally from midpack or so on Saturday.
HIGHLY MOTIVATED failed to stave off the top pick in the Blue Grass and must prove that 1 1/4 miles is within his scope, but there is talent here to be sure. Think he’ll appreciate reverting to the late-running tactics that resulted in his win in the Nyquist Stakes last fall at Keeneland.
Looking for longshots to spice up the exotics? Keepmeinmind and Hidden Stash would benefit from an electric pace up front.