Kentucky Belle the clear class of Dueling Grounds Oaks
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FRANKLIN, Ky. – Wednesday’s closing-day card of the seven-day Kentucky Downs race meeting is going to feel much like the first six programs: hot as hell.
To be fair, Wednesday’s forecast high is a mere 94 degrees. On Saturday, the temperature hit 100.
The morning line lists Kentucky Belle as the 3-1 chalk for the closing-day feature, the 1 5/16-mile Dueling Grounds Oaks for 3-year-old fillies, but she might wind up a hotter favorite than that. Brad Cox, 4 for 14 partway through Sunday’s card, trains Kentucky Belle, Flavien Prat rides her, and Kentucky Belle returned last month at Saratoga after nearly four months away from the races looking like a new-and-improved model of an already capable turf-route horse.
The Grade 3, $2 million Dueling Grounds Oaks drew 11 entrants and is the richest of three stakes on a 14-race program. Four of the races, including the Bowling Green Gold Cup, were scheduled to be run Thursday, but Kentucky Downs moved up its post time that day to mid-morning and lopped off the end of the card owing to – you guessed it – intemperately hot conditions.
Unlike many Cox-trained horses with high-level ability, Kentucky Belle did not hit the ground running. A WinStar Farm homebred by Justify, Kentucky Belle failed to meet a $240,000 reserve at one yearling auction and was withdrawn from a second, instead going into training during late spring of her 2-year-old season. The filly is stretchy and lacks speed, always was going to need some time to develop, and while she notched a third-out maiden turf-route score, her first start in blinkers, Kentucky Belle did not necessarily look like a stakes horse last fall.
She returned from a winter break with a solid second over one mile at Gulfstream. The race mainly served as a stepping-stone to the real goal, a 1 3/16-mile allowance at the Keeneland meet in April, which Kentucky Belle narrowly won over Dueling Grounds Oaks foe Bless Her.
“We always thought she was a filly who’d like these longer distances,” Cox said. “This is a race I’ve thought about for her since the spring.”
Thinking far outpaced racing during late spring and early summer, but if you look at Kentucky Belle’s workouts, you get the sense things generally have gone according to plan. After her April 18 start, Kentucky Belle worked back May 29 at WinStar, then went on to New York, where she immediately got onto a steady breeze pattern. Cox didn’t run her until the Saratoga Oaks on Aug. 7, and boy, was the filly ready.
A settled seventh through the early and middle stages, Kentucky Belle rolled into contention the second part of the far turn and really flew home, going the last 1 1/2 furlongs of that 1 3/16-mile contest in a sizzling 16.68 seconds to get up by a head over Faithful Departed, one of the best sophomore turf fillies in America. Moreover, Cox does not fear regression after what was easily a career best.
“Not really. I like how she’s trained. Put two good moves into her,” Cox said. “Hopefully she likes that Kentucky Downs course. You never really know till they run.”
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Bless Her finished a nose behind Kentucky Belle at Keeneland in April, but even with the benefit of a prep race, she lost to her by 4 1/4 lengths at Saratoga. Bless Her’s two wins came against modest competition and with Lasix, which she doesn’t get Wednesday, but she does have the feel of a filly who could step forward.
Bless Her stands at 15-1 on the line but seems a much more likely winner than many of the shorter-priced horses. Haute Diva lost by less than five lengths last out facing older rivals in the Grade 2 Beverly D., but that performance looks better on paper than on replay. Dakotah Blue benefited from a favorable race flow and was running just one mile, the longest race of her career, when she won the Ontario Colleen last out. Time to Dream is 0 for 7 since winning the P.G. Johnson more than a year ago. She’s lacked spark in her stretch runs, and a longer distance than she’s yet tried might not be the answer.
The morning line lists Ireland shipper La Fogata at 4-1, which would be a severe underlay. La Fogata through eight races and one win has been no more than listed-stakes class at best, and connections, tired of seeing her late runs fall short, experimented with riding the filly closer in her starts two and three races back. That turned La Fogata into a worse filly, but back to her normal closing style, she failed to make much headway beaten five lengths last out in the Prix Chloe at Chantilly.
Brendan Walsh has two entrants: another import from Ireland, the apparently overmatched Charm of Venice, and Turner’s Charm, second over this course in a maiden race last year and one of three exiting the Pucker Up Stakes at Ellis Park.
Turner’s Charm has four good races and one poor one, and the subpar showing two back, Walsh said, resulted from keeping Turner’s Charm too close to the pace. With a more patient approach, she finished second by a head in the Pucker Up, perhaps not relishing a wet course that helped propel soft turf-loving Bohemian to victory. Bohemian won’t run as well over this very firm surface, and sharp last-start Ellis allowance winner Call On Me might not want to go this far.
Kentucky Belle does. She might not be as high as 3-1, but they might not beat her in the Dueling Grounds Oaks.
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