Kenny Peck's Saratoga Pick 6 Plays for Saturday, July 31
Kenny Peck provides his analysis, selections and suggested ticket structure for Saturday's Pick 6 at Saratoga.
RACE 6: Once again, the Saturday Pick 6 sequence opens up with a field full of firsters, and once again it’s tough to plot without the benefit of seeing the board, as ten of the 14 entered (five of them are entered for Main Track Only) are making their debuts in this spot. Weather forecasts 72 hours out indicate this race will stay on the grass, in which case nine of them are eligible to run, and while I’ll use them all to varying degrees when constructing a play on Saturday I’ll use all nine equally for the purposes of this ticket.
RACE 7: LOVE AND THUNDER (#8) hasn’t been out since May but she has been training very well for trainer Chad Brown, who has been clicking at 30% over the past five years at Saratoga with turf horses in allowance races off this type of break, complete with a $4.02 ROI. That return on investment was boosted greatly by Sifting Sands, who scored here last week at 28-1, and while Love And Thunder won’t be anywhere near that price she does loom very tough here.
RACE 8: MISCHEVIOUS ALEX (#2) cuts back to a sprint after a game try in the Met Mile in his first start in a couple of months. His Beyers make him a solid threat in the Vanderbilt, and the fact that he can lead or rate makes him especially tough, as he is capable of adapting to any race flow.
Build your ticket with DRF Bets TicketMaker here.
RACE 9: The Belmont winner, ESSENTIAL QUALITY (#5), is tough to knock in this Jim Dandy, as the winning figure for the third leg of the Triple Crown (109) stands out against this field. He clearly will be tough to stave off in the lane but he will have to run down the pacesetters, and there isn’t an abundance of speed in this field. Perhaps MASQUEPARADE (#2) is able to get clear in the opening stages, and he may still be on the improve; game win in the Ohio Derby came at the expense of a decent field, and though he came from off the pace there he should be expected to be on or near the lead as he moves inside today and catches a much different pace scenario.
RACE 10: CHANNEL MAKER (#5) will win this Bowling Green Stakes if he’s able to run to the Beyers he was posting prior to his trip to Dubai, and the fact that he has some early zip in a race lacking same only adds to the appeal. He could regress, however, as many horses do making their first starts back after making that trip. CHANNEL CAT (#1) has some speed of his own and he also gets the rail; comes out of the Manhattan, a race which has produced three next-out winners from four starters. One of those winners was ROCKEMPEROR (#4), who dropped in class to beat optional claimers; back up into a graded stakes race but his best back Beyers are good enough.
RACE 11: THE LAST ZIP (#5) has been coming from off the pace of late but he could find himself on the lead in this seemingly paceless finale. HIEROGLYPHICS (#8) also has more speed than he has shown recently and figures to be forwardly placed from the start. TIZZARUNNER (#7) may be the one they all have to fear late, coming off a near-miss at Churchill where he rallied strongly despite a slow tempo up front.
THE PLAY: ALL / 8 / 2 / 2, 5 / 1, 4, 5 / 5, 7, 8 = $162 Ticket