Keeneland September sales: average price up slightly, median price down a bit

LEXINGTON, Ky. - Following a record renewal of the Keeneland September yearling sale in 2022, Keeneland president and CEO Shannon Arvin admitted there was some anxiety with the bar set high for this year's bellwether auction.

"We all were biting our fingernails a little bit, thinking about being measured up to last year's sale, which was so phenomenal," Arvin said last week.

Keeneland, and many in the industry, can let out a sigh of relief as the marathon sale concluded Saturday with a relatively stable marketplace across the levels. The average price ticked up slightly for a record figure, while the median was down only a few percentage points from last year's high-water mark.

"I don't think it totally surprises me," said Allaire Ryan, director of sales for Lane's End Farm, which consigned the sale-topper in Book 1 of Keeneland September and was active through to the final days of the sale, in Book 6. "The top end of the market was very strong this year, and that probably has a bit of a ripple effect through the rest of the sale. I'm just glad there's demand for horses all the way through to the last days."

Keeneland reported 2,754 yearlings sold through the ring during the September sale for gross receipts of $394,127,900. In last year's 12-session sale, 2,847 yearlings sold for a record $405,495,700, the only time this sale has ever topped the $400 million mark. The figures do not include horses who failed to meet their reserve in the ring who later sold privately, numbers Keeneland ultimately factors into its final results.

With 30 horses sold for seven figures in the early books to lead the marketplace, the sale's cumulative average price finished at a record $143,111. That ticked up less than half a percentage point from $142,429 in 2022.

The median price, considered a key figure for market health because it is not as affected by those top prices as much as the average may be, finished at $67,000, down 4 percent from last year's record $70,000.

"I think it's been pretty fair throughout," Ryan said. "Horses are definitely sellable. There's plenty of demand. If you have a quality individual, you can expect to kind of break out above your expectations. Other than that, I think it's very fair."

The buyback rate, also considered a key measure of market health, improved as the sale went on. In the two Book 1 sessions that opened the sale, the buyback rate was 27 percent, compared to 22 percent for that segment last year. That was partially a function of a select catalog, as owners of these elite horses may be in a better position to take on the risk and expense of retaining young stock to race - particularly with strong purse structures in many jurisdictions - if the market doesn't respond as desired to their offerings. However, in later books, the buyback rate was much lower; the two Book 6 sessions had buyback rates of 11 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Ultimately, the cumulative buyback rate finished at 20 percent, compared to 18 percent in 2022.

Tony Lacy, Keeneland's vice president of sales, admitted that he was worried about the strength of the lower markets due to the economic climate, and was ultimately happy with the results there.

"There's a lot of validity to owning a racehorse right now with the purses," Lacy said. "The conversations we had with a lot of potential buyers during the summer on our travels ... they were very much engaged with coming to Keeneland. I think we felt pretty confident [the strength of the market] would go through the week. We were incredibly happy with the way Book 5 started off and the clearance rate [late], which is very, very positive from the perspective of breeders, who are able to get their horses moved on into the system and able to reinvent in the next crop."

Buyers still saw some polarization in the marketplace, which has been a key word over the last several years.

"I felt like it was just more of the same," said Joe Pickerell of Pick View Farm, a pinhook-focused operation that purchased eight horses throughout the two weeks of the sale. "Horses perceived as high quality were hard to purchase, and horses that didn't meet all of the criteria were in a bit of a tricky spot. I think it's gotten a little more polarized across the board as far as perception of quality."

The sale topper was a $3 million Into Mischief colt purchased during Book 1 by a three-pronged partnership, part of a common trend in the upper ends of the marketplace.

West Point Thoroughbreds and the Lane's End-related Woodford Racing, which have partnered on many standouts – including as part of the team with 2022 Horse of the Year Flightline – added another partner in Chuck Sonson.

The colt, consigned by Lane's End, as agent for breeder Mike Repole, is out of the Grade 1-placed Empire Maker mare Nonna Mia, making him a half-brother to Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner and exciting young sire Outwork. It is also the immediate family of flashy Saratoga debut winner Fierceness.

"I was up at Saratoga when Fierceness ran . . . Just awestruck by that performance," West Point's Terry Finley said, adding that a racetrack trainer has yet to be determined for the colt. "It's a young family. Into Mischief, obviously, you don't have to say much. They're always in the right hands at Lane's End, so we knew a little bit about his upbringing. We're really excited to have new partners in on him, and we're ready to get going and try to get to the Derby in 2025."

In addition to racetrack goals, buyers noted the residual value of horses as potential breeding stock in a factor in the top of the marketplace.

"For colts, especially with pedigree, that met the physical credentials, it was very, very competitive," Pickerell said. "With purse structures and the potential value of a stallion, it's very lucrative to have a good colt."

The sale topper highlighted an outstanding sale for Spendthrift Farm resident Into Mischief, the nation's four-time reigning leading sire. With 12 seven-figure yearlings leading the way, he led Keeneland September by gross sales for the fourth straight year, with his 53 sold bringing $36,996,000. He easily outpaced Uncle Mo of Coolmore's Ashford Stud, whose 55 sold brought $20,138,000.

Into Mischief also led all sires by average price, at $698,019. Checking in second in that regard was Gainesway's perennial leading sire Tapit, with his 25 sold averaging $441,480.

In addition to breeding the sale topper, Repole was active on the buying bench as well. Officially, the leading buyer by gross through the sale was the partnership of SF Racing, Starlight Racing, and Madaket Stables, with Donato Lanni, as agent, purchasing 20 horses for $12,590,000. However, adding up Repole's purchases, with 35 on his own with bloodstock agent Jacob West signing, and an additional eight in partnership with Spendthrift, he not only led the way by number of horses, but contributed $16,020,000 in gross sales.

Despite that heavy spending, there was diversity in the buying bench. The 30 seven-figure horses were purchased by 20 different entities - counting those who bought in various permutations, such as Repole and West Point, only once.

The majority of the leading buyers by gross were domestic entities. There was also a major presence at the top of the market of two outfits that buy, breed, and race internationally, as M.V. Magnier of the Coolmore group signed several tickets, and Sheikha Hissa Hamdan made her first trip to Keeneland since taking the helm of Shadwell Racing from her late father.

"I think the purse structures are really what's promoting domestic buyers to be so strong," Keeneland director of sales operations Cormac Breathnach said. "We had tremendous international participation at this sale. It was more evident on the grounds, at some point, than it is in the results sheets, because the American buyer base is very, very powerful right now."

Gainesway was the leading consignor by gross, selling multiple seven-figure horses in Book 1 and continuing its activity through to the late books of the sale, finishing with 137 yearlings traded for a gross of $43,573,000.

For complete, hip-by-hip results from Keeneland September, click here.