Keeneland November sale ends with improved buyback rate, strong internet bidding

The Keeneland November breeding stock sale concluded Wednesday with expected declines in gross, average, and median, but some bright spots, including an improved buyback rate in a highly selective marketplace and robust online bidding helping to create a diverse buying bench as the industry continues to navigate the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keeneland reported 2,198 horses sold during the 10-day auction for gross receipts of $151,019,300. Last year's Keeneland November sale ran for 12 sessions; through 10 days, that auction had sold 2,570 horses for $193,316,100. The 2019 sale ultimately finished with 2,671 horses sold for $200,135,200.

Keeneland November's cumulative average price finished at $68,708, a decline of 9 percent from $75,220 through 10 sessions last year. The 2019 sale finished at $74,929. This year's median was $23,000, down 8 percent from $25,000 through the first 10 sessions of 2019, which also is the figure the sale ultimately finished at.

Even without the market restraint seen across the board this year as a result of the pandemic, the marketplace in mixed sales can be capricious. Bigger year-to-year shifts may be caused by the stock offered, as one or two top-class mares can skew the average from the top of the market. It stands to reason that a sale will not offer a champion such as Ashado ($9 million in 2005), Stellar Wind ($6 million in 2017), Take Charge Brandi ($6 million in 2015), Princess Rooney ($5.5 million in 1985), or Life's Magic ($5.4 million in 1986) – all in the top 10 historically at Keeneland November – every year. Plans for horses in these sales also can change rapidly, especially with broodmare prospects, as owners may elect to withdraw horses to race another season or to keep them in production for their own program, impacting both the number of horses offered and the gross.

"As we've talked about many times in the past, this is the factory, and you don't have to sell the factory every year," said Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland's director of sales operations. "They can hold on for the next year. Weanlings, those people decide to hold on til the yearling sale."

Considering a selective marketplace that has become even more so in a pandemic, and the aforementioned restraint in selling broodmares, the buyback rate for the November sale was outstanding, finishing at a cumulative 19 percent. That compares to 23 percent through 10 sessions last year, and 20 percent for that 12-session sale overall.

The highest selectivity, as expected, was seen in Book 1, with that segment finishing at 28 percent, even with 2019. The rates were 21 percent and 20 percent, respectively, for the two Book 3 sessions mid-sale, and continued to improve by finishing under the benchmark of 20 percent for each of the remaining sessions.

"Buyers . . . looked to this market and thought there was a good opportunity to purchase in this market," Russell said. "I think that was beneficial to everybody.

"In [the later books] of the market, people are more motivated to sell and to move on and to continue trade," he added.

The two highest-priced horses of the sale, $1.95 million Concrete Rose and $1.9 million Indian Miss, were both purchased by Larry Best's OXO Equine to add to his bourgeoning broodmare band with an eye toward supporting his young stallions. Best, who was bullish in both the broodmare and weanling markets, finished as the sale's leading buyer, with 17 purchases for a total of $7,965,000.

Millionaire Concrete Rose won 6 of 7 career starts. The Twirling Candy filly won the Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes as a juvenile and won all four starts in her 2019 campaign, taking, in order, the Grade 3 Florida Oaks, Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes, Grade 1 Belmont Oaks, and finally, the Saratoga Oaks.

"She's a beautiful horse, and you can't take away that record from her," Best said. "I'm just thrilled to have her. I have admired Concrete Rose for a long time. I have a multiple Grade 1 winner, Cambier Parc, and Concrete Rose beat her, and I said, 'Wow, what a horse.' "

An injury derailed Concrete Rose's season, and she did not make it back to the races this year. She was consigned to Keeneland as a racing or broodmare prospect by Lane's End Farm, as agent for Ashbrook Farm and BBN Racing.

Indian Miss, an 11-year-old Indian Charlie mare, is the dam of five winners from as many starters, led by Eclipse Award champion Mitole, winner of four Grade 1 events in 2019, highlighted by the Breeders' Cup Sprint and Metropolitan Handicap. Indian Miss also is the dam of Hot Rod Charlie, second in this month's Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Indian Miss, who was consigned by Hill 'n' Dale Sales, as agent, was offered in foal to leading sire Into Mischief, the sire of Best's Grade 2-winning Instagrand, who enters stud at Taylor Made Farm in 2021. Best said Indian Miss will be bred to Instagrand in his first season. He had not yet made a decision on Concrete Rose's 2021 mating, but has an eye toward breeding her to his Grade 1 winner Instilled Regard when he eventually enters stud in 2022.

"That’s my strategy – try to get Instagrand going, and hopefully we’ll get a nice Into Mischief foal," Best said. "I really want to give Instagrand a shot. Indian Charlie is a beautiful cross with Into Mischief. . . . I’m betting big on Instagrand; going to give it a shot, anyway.”

Keeneland unveiled an online auction platform earlier this year, and, with the COVID-19 pandemic creating travel difficulties for buyers, especially international buyers, the company has integrated online bidding into its live auctions. Online purchases accounted for grosses of more than $12.1 million during the September yearling sale, and were again significant in November, with 279 horses sold for $16,274,300.

The platform achieved a seven-figure sale in Book 1, as Grade 1 winner Ollie's Candy sold for $1.65 million to K I Farm of Japan.

Officials have noted that mares, as a proven commodity with racing and/or production records that can be quantified, may lend themselves more favorably to online inspection than young horses with only a physical inspection and pedigree page to go off of.

"We've heard a couple people say they're more comfortable with buying mares on the internet maybe than yearlings," Keeneland president-elect and interim director of sales Shannon Bishop Arvin said.

The sale's highest-priced weanlings were a pair of $600,000 colts by Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify. A colt from the first crop of Justify sold to Donato Lanni, who acts as agent for many of trainer Bob Baffert's clients, early in the sale. The colt, who was consigned by Hunter Valley Farm, as agent, is a half-brother to stakes winner Supreme Aura.

Led by this colt, Justify finished the Keeneland November sale leading his first-crop sire class, with five weanlings sold for an average of $427,000.

Later the same day, a colt by fellow Coolmore stallion American Pharoah also matched the $600,000 price point, going to M.V. Magnier of Coolmore, which strongly supports its young stallions in the auction ring. The colt, consigned by Beau Lane Bloodstock, is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Jackie's Warrior.

Many weanling-to-yearling pinhookers achieved lower profits during the 2020 yearling sale season, as buyer restraint due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic led to lower prices and a polarized marketplace. Thus, pinhookers operated with restraint in re-stocking with weanlings at the November sales, with the resulting weanling marketplace creating opportunity for end users, those who intend to race their weanling purchases themselves.

“I tend to go earlier now for [weanlings] as opposed to waiting for them to be yearlings,” Best said. “You take more risk, but you are not spending the same amount of money. You might get two or three shots on goal for what you’d be paying at the yearling sales.”

In recent years, a segment of racing and stallion prospects has become a highlight of the second week of the Keeneland November sale. The top-priced horse in that category was Hidden Scroll, who was purchased for $525,000 by Marc Detampel, with Fergus Galvin as agent. The 4-year old Hard Spun colt was consigned by WinStar Racing as agent for his owner and breeder, Juddmonte Farms. Trained by Bill Mott for that operation, Hidden Scroll has won twice from nine career starts to date. He will continue his career with trainer Brad Cox for Detampel.

Hidden Scroll is from the family of outstanding Juddmonte runners such as European champion Special Duty, Breeders' Cup Mile winner Expert Eye, and Grade/Group 1 winners Etoile Montante, Sightseek, and Tates Creek.

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