Keeneland handicapping roundup: Week of Oct. 26
Lexington to Louisville
Kentucky racing makes its customary shift Sunday from Keeneland to Churchill Downs Sunday, as the track begins its traditional late-fall meet, which runs through Saturday, Nov. 30.
As usual at Churchill Downs, fields should be much fuller in fall than during the spring and September meets, when the track faces more competition for horses. This additional horse population will allow Churchill to run five days a week, Wednesdays through Sundays.
Purses are down this fall, the result of the track dipping into its purse account to run in September and lower-than-anticipated handle during that meet. Straight maiden and allowance pots are off approximately $5,000 from their September-meet purses, and other races took on average about a 20- to 25-percent hit.
More noticeable, because the track repositioned some stakes during its new September meet this year, there are fewer top-class stakes on tap this fall.
In years past, the Pocahontas and Iroquois were run opening day on the first of two “Stars of Tomorrow” cards exclusively for 2-year-olds. But with those stakes being run this year in September, a pair of $60,000 overnight stakes anchor the card instead.
The second “Stars of Tomorrow” card, on closing day, Nov. 30, isn’t impacted in terms of stakes, with the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club and Grade 2 Golden Rod highlighting that day. And with those races coming four weeks after the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, they have the potential to draw some Breeders’ Cup runners.
Some improve at Churchill
Because of the differences in racetracks – with Keeneland running on its synthetic Polytrack surface and Churchill on dirt – there are certain trainers and jockeys whose success rates change radically from Keeneland to Churchill.
Trainer Steve Asmussen, for example, runs his horses more at Churchill, where he is regularly among the leading trainers. And the same is true of trainer Dale Romans.
They tied for leading trainer in September with eight wins apiece. Asmussen was also co-leading trainer with Mike Maker in the spring.
With Ricardo Santana Jr. riding often for Asmussen, and Corey Lanerie for Romans, horseplayers should expect these jockeys to have much more rewarding meets at Churchill than the quiet ones they’ve experienced at Keeneland. Lanerie topped the September meet standings, with a 19-14 advantage over Shaun Bridgmohan, the spring meet’s leading rider.
Hall of Famer Calvin Borel should also see a surge in his business, as he has always ridden Churchill better than any other track. Plus, he’s reunited with his old agent Jerry Hissam, who due to health issues took some time away from the game and did not book mounts for him in the spring and September meets.
Borel deserves a particularly long look if the Churchill track comes up wet. His horses often run well on such tracks, perhaps because he so often keeps them glued right on top of the fence, where the going can sometimes be a little firmer when the track is muddy or sloppy.
Joe Rocco Jr., in the midst of a banner second half of the 2013, also merits close attention. He is picking up momentum and, having established himself on this circuit, is sure to be popular with horsemen.
Main-track hints
Churchill Downs, with its long stretch that is nearly a quarter-mile in length, has long been considered a closer’s track – a misconception. Speed horses do well at Churchill, just like they do at just about every dirt track in America.
Front-runners and pressers/stalkers that race within a couple lengths of the leader typically win the most at virtually every distance.
Handicappers are largely advised to focus on factors other than post position for one-turn races at Churchill Downs, with horses usually winning from all over.
Due to the close proximity of the starting gate to the first turn in 1 1/16-mile races on the main track, horses starting from with inside or middle post positions are preferred in large fields. Those toward the outside are at risk of losing ground and early position.