Keeneland handicapping roundup: Week of Oct. 12

Opening-weekend stakes

As is always the case in the fall at Keeneland, the opening three days of the meet, which began last week, featured all-star casts and graded stakes aplenty – nine in total.

Here’s a short and sweet analysis of the stakes action, plus a look at any Breeders’ Cup implications.

Phoenix Stakes: Keeneland Polytrack specialist Sum of the Parts led throughout in winning this six-furlong dash, a Win and You’re In prep for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but to these eyes, he’ll probably back up at Santa Anita on dirt, particularly in a race expected to be loaded with pace.

Gentlemen’s Bet, fourth as the favorite, is the more legitimate Sprint prospect. He appeared to struggle in his first attempt on Polytrack.

Alcibiades: My Conquestadory won as much the best, overcoming a slow start and traffic problems to notch her second WAYI victory, following the Summer on grass at Woodbine. Although she dropped from an 84 Beyer Speed Figure to a 74, that was to be expected in light of her trip. She’s a leading contender for the Juvenile Fillies Turf, but a play-against if her connections test her on dirt for the first time in the Juvenile Fillies.

Woodford: Late-running Havelock blew past the field to win this 5 1/2-furlong turf dash despite a poor start, but the belief here is he can’t afford to race that way and be a factor in the Breeders’ Cup Turf sprint against the best. Besides, Keeneland – where he is now 4 for 5 – is his favorite course.

Thoroughbred Club of America: Synthetic specialists Judy the Beauty and Gypsy Robin upset champion Groupie Doll, and though the champ wasn’t beat much, losing by 1 3/4 lengths, her form pales in comparison to what it was in 2012. She’s a threat in the Filly and Mare Sprint, but not the sure thing she was last year.

First Lady: This race, contested in a driving rainstorm and over slick ground, likely decided little – other than who could handle the conditions best, which Better Lucky did in edging Dayatthespa by a head. Best to give also-rans a pass for poor performances when they return.

Breeders’ Futurity: A hot pace and slow finish set the race up for a closer, and We Miss Artie took advantage, rallying to win going away. Don’t care to bet any of the top finishers immediately back, but am willing to excuse those that tried Poly for the first time and bombed, and those that were burned up by the fast fractions – provided they drop into easier races than the Breeder’s Cup.

Shadwell Turf Mile: Because this race was taken off the turf and moved to Polytrack less than an hour before its running, some may view the results with skepticism. Not this handicapper. Silver Max, the winner, took the race to them early and won with authority. He’s back.

Though Wise Dan lost, he still finished well clear of the rest of the pack in second. He ran well with a wide trip, but Silver Max simply freaked with an uncontested lead.

Bourbon: Like the Shadwell, this scheduled turf race was moved to the Polytrack and lost its WAYI status. Still, it seemed a legitimately run contest, with Poker Play winning the 1 1/16-mile race in 1:43.46 – over three seconds faster than We Miss Artie’s time of 1:46.91 a day before in the Breeders’ Futurity. Granted, the track was faster, but not three seconds faster.
Besides the late-closing winner, Bashart ran well to be second after falling farther off the pace than usual and being steadied into the first turn.

Spinster: Emollient won her second Grade 1 on the Keeneland Poly this year, winning in last-to-first fashion after a tardy start. If she goes in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, she has price appeal as a longshot, having run a 100 Beyer Speed Figure – a number unlikely to be respected since it came on Poly. She is a Grade 1 winner on turf at 1 1/4 miles.

◗ Only two jockeys won more than two races over the first three days of the meet: John Velazquez (4 for 18), and Rosie Napravnik (3 for 15). Of that duo, only Napravnik is expected to ride the whole meet, with Velazquez coming mostly to ride on days when he has stakes mounts.

Velazquez was the big earnings leader over opening weekend, with his mounts making over $812,000.

As in the jockey standings, there is little separation among trainers. Five trainers won two races apiece to trail Todd Pletcher (3 for 5) and Mark Casse (3 for 9).