Keeneland handicapping roundup and horses to watch for Oct. 5

Which sires produce good Polytrack runners?

In looking over the results at Keeneland since fall 2008, it becomes clear that progeny of certain sires have an affinity for racing over Keeneland’s Polytrack.

Totaling the number of winners for each sire on Poly over that time frame, counting both spring and fall meets, the following sires led the way with at least 15 winners: Unbridled’s Song (27), Kitten’s Joy (25), Giant’s Causeway (25), Distorted Humor (20), Smart Strike (20), Dynaformer (18), and Empire Maker (15).

Kitten’s Joy’s statistics were all the more noteworthy considering his first crop of runners were just 2-year-olds in 2009.

Progeny of these sires also had 10 or more winners since fall 2008: Medaglia d’Oro (15), Successful Appeal (15), Sky Mesa (15), Pulpit (14), Ghostzapper (14), Bernstein (12), Broken Vow (12), Stormy Atlantic (12), Tiznow (12), Tale of the Cat (12), Mr. Greeley (12), A.P. Indy (11), Speightstown (11), and More Than Ready (10).

What to watch for as Keeneland opens

When Keeneland opens for its 17-day fall meet Friday that continues until Oct. 26, horses will converge there from all over, having raced everywhere from Canada, New York, Illinois, and Pennsylvania, among other locales, not to mention from other tracks within Kentucky.

This presents unique challenges for horseplayers, who must decipher which invaders hold the edge and which horses might stand to improve over the track’s synthetic Polytrack surface.

As they say in the stock market world, past production does not necessarily forecast future results, but examining precedent is a necessity at Keeneland, particularly early in the meet before trends develop.

Because the fall meet at Keeneland is significantly different from the spring meet – where most of the invaders are from Gulfstream, Fair Grounds, or Turfway – last year’s fall meet provides the best apples-to-apples comparison of what to expect this October.

Irrespective of whether they are running on Polytrack or turf, New York invaders fared best last fall at Keeneland, with horses whose last race was at Saratoga or Belmont combining to win 30 of the track’s 161 races.

Last-race Presque Isle and Kentucky Downs runners also were successful, with horses coming from Presque Isle winning 20 races and Kentucky Downs runners 19 races.

Presque Isle horses did best in the lower-end races on Polytrack, having garnered synthetic experience on the Tapeta surface there.

Given that Kentucky Downs offered record-breaking purses this past meet, resulting in large, competitive fields, it seems reasonable to expect big things from those runners again. They could surpass their win total from fall 2012.

Because Churchill averaged less than one turf race per day during its recent September meet, the overwhelming majority of those horses that race on the Keeneland Polytrack will be coming off dirt races, so horseplayers are advised to look for horses with already established synthetic form when playing such types or focus on those with bloodlines to excel on the synthetic.

Running styles

In examining last fall’s results on Keeneland’s synthetic Polytrack surface, 25 percent of the winners in one-turn races raced on the lead or within a head of the pace after a quarter-mile. Those front-running numbers dipped to 20 percent winners in routes, taken from the half-mile call.

The average sprint winner raced a little more than 2 1/2 lengths off the pace after a quarter-mile, while the average winner in routes was 2 3/4 lengths behind after a half-mile.

The win record of early leaders dipped in routes on turf. In races from a mile to 1 1/8 miles on the grass, 17 percent of the winners raced on the lead or within a head of the leader after a half-mile, with the winners averaging racing four lengths off the pace.
Post Positions

Sprint runners breaking from posts 1 and 2 visited the winner’s circle infrequently last fall, combining to win just 3 of the 76 one-turn races at the meet. Starters from these same posts rebounded somewhat to win at an 8 percent clip in the spring.

The rail on the main track was a far better starting position in routes the past two meets, with horses from there winning 20 percent, while those parked outside in large fields were disadvantaged, particularly in stakes, when fields were at times as large as 14.

Meanwhile, horses came from all over the post-position map on turf last fall.

Connections

Julien Leparoux ran away in the jockey standings last fall and Joel Rosario was even more dominant this spring, but with those two riders expected to ride sparingly at Keeneland this fall, the race for leading jockey figures to be competitive and may come down to who gets early momentum.

Trainer Mike Maker, who set a meet record with 25 winners in the spring, plans to use a number of riders, mentioning Rosie Napravnik, Shaun Bridgmohan, and Alan Garcia among Kentucky regulars, plus Leparoux and Rosario when they are in town.

Ken McPeek, the fourth-winningest trainer of all time at Keeneland, also plans to spread mounts around, saying Garcia, Robby Albarado, and Victor Lebron are riders he intends to use.

Corey Lanerie also should be among the leading jockeys, having just won the September riding title at Churchill Downs.

Horses to watch

EMOLLIENT
Trainer: Bill Mott
Last race: Sept. 14, 9th (BEL)
Finish: 8th by 4 1/4
Beyer: 83
Disappointed when stuck behind a slow pace in the Garden City after a tardy break, but should rebound in Sunday’s Spinster on a Polytrack surface she loves. She romped in the Ashland at Keeneland in the spring, and 3-year-old fillies have done well versus elders this fall.

GENERAL JACK
Trainer: Mike Maker
Last race: Aug. 3, 7th (CBY)
Finish: 1st by 3
Beyer: 80
Missed a race at Saratoga due to a physical setback, but has trained regularly since Aug. 22 and is already proven around two turns. He shifts from turf to synthetic for Saturday’s Breeders’ Futurity and is by a superb Polytrack sire in Giant’s Causeway.

FIRST ROMANCE
Trainer: Jonathan Sheppard
Last race: Sept. 7, 3rd (KD)
Finish: 2nd by 1 1/2
Beyer: 7 4
Rallied to be second in a turf race at Kentucky Downs on the grass and could be tough back in a straight maiden race at Keeneland, even if on the Polytrack. She is by Dynaformer, an excellent synthetic sire. She ran poorly in one prior Keeneland main-track race, but that was a sprint in which she debuted.